Would You Rather: Darvish or a Cobb/Lynn Combo?

Cobb and Lynn aren’t that much better than the Nolasco types.

Your joking right?  Personally, if we can't get Darvish i'd still like to have Lynn or Cobb just to shore up the rotation behind Santana and Berrios.  There's no way i'd gamble on Gibson or anyone else at this point in the top 3. 

Would I rather have Darvish or two inferior pitchers while losing an additional asset off of waivers for no return and delaying the development of several younger, cheaper pitchers likely to be better than Lynn and Cobb in a couple years while they continue to take up roster and payroll space?

Why is this a question?

Cobb and Lynn can't get this team out of the WC round, so pass, I'd rather not sign anyone and work on trades instead. This team has to stop taking half measures. And if this team was never going to give $150M for Darvish, what was with all the big talk early on? They had to know that's what it would take.

Actually, no one knew what it was going to take. Why do you think this has dragged out for so long? 

Personally, I would rather have Cobb and Lynn rather than Darvish. Your paying 2 for the price of 1, more secure, and having a deeper rotation will get us farther over the course of a season.

I agree. The Twins still need to set a solid foundation for the pitching staff. Set the foundation. Get an ace at the trade deadline if the Twins are in it, next offseason if not.

/fin

I don't know, i'd have a hard time passing on Lynn if i couldn't get Darvish.  Of all three Lynn has been the most consistent when it comes to innings pitched, games started, win-loss record and strikeouts. 

Darvish is far superior when it comes to k/9, whip and pure stuff but i also like the consistency of Lynn and he's 30.  

I feel like Berrios is getting closer to becoming that #1 guy we're looking for.  Santana will be solid for us.  I love what they're doing to fill the holes in the bullpen.  I want to see what Gonsalves and May turn into.  The Gibson we saw at the end of the year was pretty solid as well.  We still do have a couple younger options that are getting close.  We are getting closer to a full staff.  I guess I've talked myself into going for one of the top 2 guys out there and spending to get him.  Otherwise, hold off until the trade deadline and swap a couple guys to pick up a solid starter if it's looking like we're in the running.  

Ok, time to take a break from eating glue paste and crayons... (Hmmm, maybe that's why I keep getting them taken away).

Thanks Tom, I really appreciate one more topic to really get my neurotic synapses firing full bore...  It's an intriguing thought, but I would concur with many and hope they pull the plug on the bathwater bank and let the water/money flow to Darvish.   Lynn and Cobb could be great additions, and it is conceivable that they could both be landed and brought into the fold.   But I can't help but feel that Darvish would be the statement the Twins need to make.   Will they?   I have no earthly clue, but I can hope and dream.

And Archer....????   Unless you want to see a recreation of a really bad 70's prison movie shower scene where the "new guy" is played by Twins prospects given up in sacrifice, let us speak of this no more

I'm always leary of guys who've had the majority (or all) of their success in the NL.  Call it the Matt Capps syndrome.  So I'm leary of Arrieta and Lynn.  I want Darvish.  Take a 2-0 count swing.  Cobb at 29 with all success in AL is more appealing to me than Arrieta at 31 with all of success in NL.  

Cobb/Lynn and its not even close.    Just kidding.   Really tough to analyze because you shouldn't just be looking at this year and you should still be looking at making the playoffs because doing well in the playoffs is still a crapshoot.    Santana didn't do well in the playoffs this year but that doesn't mean he couldn't have.  He pitched like an ace pretty much all year.  If you look at the Twins playoff history and game 163's I don't think it has been the starting pitching that has been the problem.   Make the playoffs first.    I would rank them Darvish, Cobb and Lynn but ERA hasn't separated them though ERA+ does.   I would still rather improve two spots than one but this is a little pointless.    We are very likely to end up with none of them so I would be quite happy with any of them and am comfortable relying on Meija, May, Gonsalves, Romero to fill out the 5th spot and as backup for any that falter.

Darvish, no question, if the cost isn't just crazy. He's better than either, and there is depth here and more coming to a ballpark near you soon!

Second: ONE of Lynn or Cobb. You still deepen your rotation and your chances. And did I mention the depth and the depth coming soon? No need for 2 contracts, loss of 2 draft choices, and block what you have.

A large part of Lynn's "consistency" is just the fortuitous timing of his surgery.  Lynn pitched the full 2015 season, then had TJ surgery in Nov. 2015 and was back in MLB for the full 2017 season.  Overall, he was out of MLB for ~16 months, but he was lucky that it only spanned 1 season and 2 offseasons.

 

Darvish was shut down with elbow inflammation in 2014, but didn't undergo TJ surgey until March 2015.  (His team likely postponing surgery as much as possible because he was a bigger investment than Lynn or Cobb?)  Darvish was back in MLB ~15 months after surgery, basically the same as Lynn, but spanning two seasons and only 1 offseason.  He has not missed significant time otherwise.

 

Cobb has missed a bit more time in his career, but the timing of his surgery was the worst of this group -- May 2015, after it was presumably detected in spring training that year.  Cobb returned to MLB ~15 months later too, but due to the timing, it looks like 2 full seasons were wiped out.

 

Also, I'm not sure why you'd say Lynn is most consistent in strikeouts, unless you are only looking at raw totals -- which is basically double-counting his surgery timing advantage above.  Otherwise, his 2017 K/9 or K% is actually a lower percentage of his peak starter K rate (2012) than doing the same comparison for Darvish.  This despite Darvish's peak K rate being so much higher.

So your basically saying that we shouldn't factor injury history into a pitcher's consistency or his stats unless it's Lance Lynn because of his "lucky" timing of TJ?  While disregarding how injuries have effected Darvish and Cobb and their overall stats and work so far?  Whose to say those two seasons Cobb missed were going to be stellar?  I don't get it.....to each their own i guess.

Like i said earlier, i'd like to have Darvish but if not, Lynn would still be a good signing to walk away with this off-season.

Adding two starters suddenly creates a pretty good rotation of at least 4 solid starters. That can get you to the playoffs. However, Cobb or Lynn doesn't win you playoff games. In the playoffs, you're facing all-star or close to it staring pitchers almost every night. Cobb and Lynn combined wins games in conjunction with what the Twins have already, but come playoff time, Darvish can match up better against Verlander/McCullers/Cole/etc. This also allows Santana and Berrios some more favorable match-ups as well. Also, let's not forget that Gibson and Mejia are projected to be of similar value to Cobb and Lynn, respectively. Therefore, I believe it is logical to spend on one pitcher that pushes the needle instead of investing the same amount of two pitchers that barely push it. If this were the Pirates, I would say get the two cheaper pitchers. This situation for the Twins is different. If we want to win a Wild Card game against the Red Sox, Yankees, or Angles, Yu Darvish is better suited to start that game than Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn. Because of the Twins current situation, Yu Darvish must be the answer.

I don't think Darvish along get's the Twins fully over the hump.  Just a gut feeling.  I would absolutely love to see Mejia or Gonsalve or another MiLBer step up to some MLB experience.  I'm also looking at how much longer Santana can be reliable. 

The clock is ticking......

You need two studs in a short playoff series and 3 in a longer series. Darvish gives us a chance in game 1, and Erv can have a dominant game 2 if he gets his slider over. In the WC game he couldn't command the slider. Berrios is almost but not quite there to be a 1 or 2. He may emerge this year. 

I don't mind trading a couple almost studs to get a real stud. 

I don't think Darvish along get's the Twins fully over the hump.  Just a gut feeling.  I would absolutely love to see Mejia or Gonsalve or another MiLBer step up to some MLB experience.  I'm also looking at how much longer Santana can be reliable. 

 

The clock is ticking......

Signing Darvish doesn't block Mejia or Gonsalves from stepping up. Signing Cobb and Lynn actually does since they occupy two rotation spots.

I absolutely go for quality instead of quantity. The Twins have MANY interesting AA/AAA arms to give a shot next year. I don't have high hopes for any of them immediately but there is a lot of talent to fill the back end of the rotation. I can actually conceive the Twins having a solid rotation top to bottom.

But I want Darvish/Berrios at the top (Ervin is alright and steady). This gives you a pretty good playoff rotation.

There was a time when the Twins signed Kevin Correia and we were okay with it because he could "eat innings."  The fact that Yu Darvish is even being mentioned at this point is awesome.

I don't remember too many people being OK with Correia, and I remember a lot of people being upset about the Twins wasting a roster spot and $10M or so on a replacement-level pitcher. 

Under this formulation: Darvish. Neither Lynn nor Cobb are top-end guys and while they might provide more consistency in the rotation than what we have now (I've been clear on this site that I don't trust The Tease, aka Kyle Gibson and Hughes may never start a game again) but I'm still more worried about quality than quantity.

With potential decline a real possibility for Santana, adding a horse like Darvish is even more optimal.

A rotation of Darvish, Berrios, Santana, Meija, and Gibson (with Gonsalves and other pushing the back end guys hard, possibly even taking their jobs) is much more appealing than Berrios, Santana, Cobb, Lynn, and Meija/Gibson. And considering the roster crunch we're facing, adding extra guys that really don't substantially increase the quality level hurts us in other ways.