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  • With Machado Gone, Eduardo Escobar Becomes The Best Shortstop Available


    Andrew Thares

    The 2018 MLB trade deadline was always going to revolve around one player, and that was Baltimore Orioles shortstop Manny Machado. Among the list of players who are expected to be available at the deadline, none of them come anywhere close to matching the stardom that Machado has.

    However, at the end of the day there is only one Manny Machado and he can only play for one team. So, that means there is now a handful of teams who must now look elsewhere to fill the hole in their roster they were looking for Machado to fill as they make a playoff push.

    Image courtesy of © Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

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    Fortunately for the Twins, the next best available shortstop on the trade market now appears to be Eduardo Escobar. Now, I know Escobar has spent the majority of his time this year at third base, and he is a much better defender at the hot corner, but Escobar still has the ability to play short and the presence he can bring with his bat there will be a welcome upgrade for a number of teams.

    There are a few big things going in Escobar’s favor that make him an attractive player for contending teams. This first is his excellent play on the field ever since he took over as a full-time player nearly a year ago. Going back to August 20th of last year (the day Escobar took over full time after the Miguel Sano injury), Escobar has a .266/.319/.513 slash line with 24 home runs and 40 doubles in 130 games.

    Another factor in the favor of Escobar’s trade value is his position versatility. If it is needed, Escobar could play second, short or third, which opens the door to a lot more teams being able to benefit from adding Escobar to their roster.

    The next factor is at the trade deadline, Escobar will only have a little more than $1.5 million left on his contract. So, Escobar won’t be a problem for teams that are hesitant to add much more in terms of payroll. Finally, Escobar’s clubhouse presence can’t be overstated. While it’s hard to put a number on this, teams will appreciate knowing that Escobar won’t hurt the team’s camaraderie as they make a push for the postseason.

    After Escobar, the list of other shortstops available isn’t very long. Perhaps the next most intriguing player is Jose Iglesias. Unlike Escobar, Iglesias is known for his defensive prowess at short. However, his bat has never been all that good, so most of his value is wrapped up in his glove. For teams looking to add another impact bat to their lineup, which is usually the case at the trade deadline, Iglesias can’t provide that.

    Another player of interest might be Elvis Andrus. Andrus has been one of the better shortstops in the game in recent years, but he has been struggling with injuries this year and as a result has played in just 36 games. One factor that could prevent Andrus from being traded is his contract situation. After 2018, Andrus is under control for another 4-years for $59 million, with an option for a fifth year. With Andrus still just 29, and the quality of player he is, that is a pretty team friendly deal.

    While this would normally increase Andrus's trade value, there is one stipulation that prevents this, and that is two player options after 2018 and 2019 that only kick in if Andrus is traded. So, if a team were to acquire Andrus via trade, the leverage instantly switches to him and he could easily opt out for free agency.

    A few other shortstops that could be available include Adeiny Hechavarria, Freddy Galvis & Alcides Escobar who are all essentially just a lesser version of the same player Jose Iglesias is. As you can see, the market for available shortstops is pretty bleak beyond Eduardo Escobar.

    So, the question is, which teams will be most interested in striking a deal with the Twins for Eduardo Escobar? Well, the two most obvious teams of interest are the Philadelphia Phiilles and Milwaukee Brewers. Both teams were players in the Manny Machado sweepstakes until the very end, and they are both looking to fill a pretty glaring hole at shortstop as the Phillies and Brewers rank 24th and 30th respectively in fWAR from the shortstop position. The Phillies could also use the help at third base as they rank 27th as a team with a 0.4 fWAR from their third basemen this year.

    Another team that might show some interest in Escobar is the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks aren’t necessarily bad at short or third, but they are not all that good at those positions either. With Jake Lamb in a down year, and Nick Ahmed struggling offensively, Escobar’s bat and versatility could be a welcome addition to the Arizona infield. There are most likely a few other teams that will be interested in Escobar as well, but the Phillies, Brewers and Diamondbacks are the three teams that have the most to gain by adding Escobar to their lineup.

    At the end of the day, the fact that Eduardo Escobar will become a free agent at the end of this season will still limit his trade value, but if I was a team that could use an upgrade in the infield I would be on the phone with the Twins every day trying to make a deal to acquire Eduardo Escobar.

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    The Twins will only trade him if it nets a good return.  It will depend on what teams are willing to pay in prospect value to pry him loose.  I suspect it will take players in a teams top 10 to get him, but we will see.

     

    I just have a hard time getting the logic that any return for Escobar (or Dozier, or Lynn, or Morrison,  or Rodney or Duke, etc) at this point is not better than nothing in return at all.

     

    2018 is gone.  Nothing prohibits the Twins of signing Escobar as a free agent for 2019 (and beyond.)

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    I just have a hard time getting the logic that any return for Escobar (or Dozier, or Lynn, or Morrison,  or Rodney or Duke, etc) at this point is not better than nothing in return at all.

     

    2018 is gone.  Nothing prohibits the Twins of signing Escobar as a free agent for 2019 (and beyond.)

     

    If they can't find a return they like I don't see the sense in rolling over, they still have August to get something done.  I don't think they want to just trade him for a bag of chips.  Just my opinion.  Hopefully they get something good and get him back in the off-season.

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    I just don't see the logic of trading for "whatever we can get". If all we're gonna get is trash or 40 man cast-offs then it doesn't really matter whether we keep or trade. This is how we end up with tons of AAA and AAAA guys we can't get away from, don't know enough about, or have to be released.

     

    I don't see how tanking or trading guys for suspect returns helps foster a winning culture, send a message about the importance of winning to young players, or give any reason to sign here as a FA or accept an extension.

     

    I don't think having a reputation of caving helps future bargaining either.

     

    Sometimes you try your best and it doesn't work out. High character means you don't quit absent a darn good reason. "Whatever we can get" isn't a good enough reason, imo. It's ok to demand a fair or even favorable offer. It's ok to play it out and let guys walk if the return isn't there.

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    I'd trade Esco to a contender for his sake, not the Twins'. He has earned a shot at a ring, so let him go see what he can do at the top level of baseball. The team can get him back next year if both sides want it.

     

    Meanwhile, this team needs to get game experience for Nick Gordon. They should shuffle him around the infield along with Polanco and Adrianza. Assuming Dozier is gone, I could see Adranza at 3b, Gordon SS and Polanco at 2B, swapping freely among them. 

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    In my mind, the only justification for NOT trading Escobar is if the Twins have already made the decision that they are willing to QO him.

     

    I think it's arguable whether the team would/should feel that Escobar is worth a QO for 2019.  Dozier, Sano, Gordon...even Polanco and Adrianza...a lot of decisions and moving pieces.  It makes for great speculation.

    I appreciate your opinions, but I disagree that EE is worth an $18 million QO.

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    I appreciate your opinions, but I disagree that EE is worth an $18 million QO.

    That opinion isn't in my post :).  Just stated the willingness on the part of the Twins to make that offer would be the only justification (IMO) for not trading him.  Or, another way of saying the same thing..."if you're not willing to offer the QO, you HAVE to trade him."  (Assuming the Twins consider themselves sellers by the deadline.)

     

    You're not going to extend him at this point, months away from hitting the open market and having a career year.

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    Agreed. The window of contention is open for the next 2-3 years. trading EE for some team's 10th ranked prospect in high A and 25th ranked prospect in AA does nothing for me. Trading him for a MLB ready starting quality Catcher gets me excited enough to require me to change underwear. The question is where in between we can wind up and if it ain't good, no trade. We need talent that can play in the Majors next year, not guys who might 3-5 years out. We got the latter guys, we don't got much of the former.  I'm tired of being a development franchise for other teams. 

     

    If your option is to keep EE and then let him go in FA, or offer him 18MM next year.....or trade him for a guy further away than you want, I trade him for a guy further away than I want. I doubt the option is to get a guy that will help in a meaningful way next year.

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    I guess I see a 4th option - signing him to a 2-3 year deal at an AAV of less than the QO, probably significantly less. That's the option I would employ. My second choice would be the QO.

    Sure, but you can trade him and likely do that. I am truly surprised anyone would pay him 18 million for one year, especially for a year that had a low shot at being a playoff year.

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    I'd be very comfortable offering Esobar a qualifying offer. If he accepts the Twins get a valuable guy who can fill in at multiple positions on a one year contract (overpaying for one season doesn't hurt the team much if at all). If he declines Minnesota gets a compensatory draft pick. 

     

    I wouldn't consider any trade offers that have less value than the potential pick (a fangraphs article I saw valued a pick in the 30-40 range around 2.5 WAR pre-FA) plus the value of having Escobar for the rest of this season (extrapolates to around 0.9 WAR not counting playoffs). Based on fangraphs research, a value of 3.4 WAR should be worth a 50 grade hitter or a 55 grade pitcher (based on fangraphs prospect ratings). As an example, in a deal with the Brewers that would be Tristen Lutz or Corbin Burnes.

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    That opinion isn't in my post :).  Just stated the willingness on the part of the Twins to make that offer would be the only justification (IMO) for not trading him.  Or, another way of saying the same thing..."if you're not willing to offer the QO, you HAVE to trade him."  (Assuming the Twins consider themselves sellers by the deadline.)

     

    You're not going to extend him at this point, months away from hitting the open market and having a career year.

    You re right, Sir and I apologize for any confusion, I was respectfully disagreeing the grey part. I wish EE all the. EST, but not $18 per
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    Agreed. The window of contention is open for the next 2-3 years. trading EE for some team's 10th ranked prospect in high A and 25th ranked prospect in AA does nothing for me. Trading him for a MLB ready starting quality Catcher gets me excited enough to require me to change underwear. The question is where in between we can wind up and if it ain't good, no trade. We need talent that can play in the Majors next year, not guys who might 3-5 years out. We got the latter guys, we don't got much of the former.  I'm tired of being a development franchise for other teams.

     

    I disagree. I would take most team’s 10 th best prospect for EE.
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    I'd be very comfortable offering Esobar a qualifying offer. If he accepts the Twins get a valuable guy who can fill in at multiple positions on a one year contract (overpaying for one season doesn't hurt the team much if at all). If he declines Minnesota gets a compensatory draft pick.

     

    I wouldn't consider any trade offers that have less value than the potential pick (a fangraphs article I saw valued a pick in the 30-40 range around 2.5 WAR pre-FA) plus the value of having Escobar for the rest of this season (extrapolates to around 0.9 WAR not counting playoffs). Based on fangraphs research, a value of 3.4 WAR should be worth a 50 grade hitter or a 55 grade pitcher (based on fangraphs prospect ratings). As an example, in a deal with the Brewers that would be Tristen Lutz or Corbin Burnes.

    Escobar would have to sign a $50+ mil FA deal to get a comp pick in the 30-40 range. Otherwise it would be in 70-80 range, like the pick we sold to San Diego.

     

    But of course, the far more likely outcome of a QO is you would get him on a 1/18 contract and no comp pick.

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    Escobar would have to sign a $50+ mil FA deal to get a comp pick in the 30-40 range. Otherwise it would be in 70-80 range, like the pick we sold to San Diego.

    But of course, the far more likely outcome of a QO is you would get him on a 1/18 contract and no comp pick.

     

    You are right about the comp pick, there's a decent chance it would end up as as comp B pick. 

     

    I think Escobar accepting the QO is the third most likely scenario if it's offered. Declining the offer or signing a multi-year deal with the Twins seem more likely to me.

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    You are right about the comp pick, there's a decent chance it would end up as as comp B pick.

     

    I think Escobar accepting the QO is the third most likely scenario if it's offered. Declining the offer or signing a multi-year deal with the Twins seem more likely to me.

    Dozier's chances at a $50 mil deal are not great, but possible. Escobar's chance is virtually zero.

     

    If Escobar turns down the QO, he instantly loses ~$4-5 mil from his bargaining position with other teams. His track record doesn't warrant a QO either -- keep in mind this is the first season of his career where he's been meaningfully above average with the bat. I think he takes it, if offered.

     

    Absent the qualifying offer, he probably gets contract offers like 2/20 or 3/24, either of which would be preferable for the Twins compared to a 1/18 deal (which would not only be an overpay for 2019, but it would basically make him untradeable unless we ate a lot of cash).

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    You are right about the comp pick, there's a decent chance it would end up as as comp B pick.

     

    I think Escobar accepting the QO is the third most likely scenario if it's offered. Declining the offer or signing a multi-year deal with the Twins seem more likely to me.

    Why would he turn it down? Take 18 million, then sign a two year deal after that. That's way more money than he'll get on a three year deal this year. Not even close, imo Edited by Mike Sixel
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    Dozier's chances at a $50 mil deal are not great, but possible. Escobar's chance is virtually zero.

    If Escobar turns down the QO, he instantly loses ~$4-5 mil from his bargaining position with other teams. His track record doesn't warrant a QO either -- keep in mind this is the first season of his career where he's been meaningfully above average with the bat. I think he takes it, if offered.

    Absent the qualifying offer, he probably gets contract offers like 2/20 or 3/24, either of which would be preferable for the Twins compared to a 1/18 deal (which would not only be an overpay for 2019, but it would basically make him untradeable unless we ate a lot of cash).

     

    I agree and I hope it is the Twins that offer that 2/20 or 3/24 and bring him back home. 

     

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    Only if that prospect is MLB ready. IF that prospect is in A ball or just got to AA he won't be much help for at least 2-3 years or more. 

    EE has given us so much value.  He seems to step up in crucial hitting situations more than most and he plays good/decent defense everywhere.  He's also not going to cost much when taking into salaries we see in today's game.  Letting him go would be a mistake.

    Edited by jimmer
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    EE has given us so much value. He seems to step up in crucial hitting situations more than most and he plays good defense everywhere. He's also not going to cost much when taking into salaries we see in today's game. Letting him go would be a mistake.

    My desire to retain Escobar would be the same if he wasn’t having the year he is having. I wouldn’t offer him a QO but We better be a top bidder to bring him back. We need the position flexibility.

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    My desire to retain Escobar would be the same if he wasn’t having the year he is having. I wouldn’t offer him a QO but We better be a top bidder to bring him back. We need the position flexibility.

    In the last five seasons, he has only had one bad season.  He's made the most of his opportunities with us. He's not a superstar, of course, but his versatility and his ability to come up big as often as practically anyone else on this team makes him valuable for us. I hope we keep him.  

    Edited by jimmer
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    In the last five seasons, he has only had one bad season. He's made the most of his opportunities with us. He's not a superstar, of course, but his versatility and his ability to come up big as often as practically anyone else on this team makes him valuable for us. I hope we keep him.

    And he has taken over for someone injured each of those years. I’m assuming that need will never change.

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    That opinion isn't in my post :).  Just stated the willingness on the part of the Twins to make that offer would be the only justification (IMO) for not trading him.  Or, another way of saying the same thing..."if you're not willing to offer the QO, you HAVE to trade him."  (Assuming the Twins consider themselves sellers by the deadline.)

     

    You're not going to extend him at this point, months away from hitting the open market and having a career year.

    Thank you for the clarification.
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