Will the Real Trevor Larnach Please Stand Up

In 79 games for the Twins last year, Larnach slashed .223/.322/.350. The on-base percentage isn’t a negative, and while the average isn’t where you would like to see it, the most glaring issue was Larnach’s slugging percentage. During Larnach’s age-22 season in 2019, he played 127 games between High-A and Double-A. That year he blasted 13 long balls and owned a .458 SLG. He was one of the best prospects to play at the 2020 alternate site, and his bat has always been his best tool.
 
Larnach has plenty of pop, and his game power carries over just as much as the raw stuff displays. Where it was evident that something was off came following the demotion to Triple-A St. Paul in 2021. Despite dealing with struggles in acclimating to big-league life, Larnach went to the Saints for his first Triple-A exposure and slashed just .177/.323/.373 in 14 games. Once again, his eye and plate discipline hadn’t left him, but the power presence was virtually gone.

Larnach was plunked by a pitch on his left foot in late May last season. As a left-handed batter, that leg is his load side, or basically where all the weight is distributed initially when swinging. The injury immediately left him in a walking boot, and manager Rocco Baldelli said, “He's just not moving around great.”
 
Up to that point, admittedly a small sample of just 20 games, Larnach had an .845 OPS with his first three major league home runs to go with it. Returning to the lineup just days later, Larnach went on to play another 59 games for Minnesota, in which he posted just a .622 OPS. As a rookie looking to establish a regular cadence towards playing time, fighting through injury is a tale as old as time. While the injury is certainly not the sole factor in Larnach’s struggles, it’s probably a pretty significant influence.
 
When the dust settled last year, Larnach finished with just a 33.5% hard-hit rate, and he put balls on the ground 46% of the time. His average exit velocity checked in at 90 mph, and the max came with a whopping 116 mph clubbing. The barrel percentage was just 9.5%, and it all goes back to a guy showing less than what was initially expected.
 
Coming into 2022 with a clean bill of health Larnach can be a bit looser. Although he’ll need to work for at-bats, likely staring at Triple-A, with Alex Kirilloff slated to start in left field. If something is going against him, it’s that the Twins outfield is so dominantly left-handed, and therefore he doesn’t bring any sort of platoon advantage to the lineup.

In just a 13 at-bat sample size this spring, Larnach is undoubtedly making his claim for a turnaround. He’s generated two separate three-run blasts and owns a 1.067 OPS. It’s hard to take too much away from games that don’t count with pitchers working on specifics rather than complete dominance, but it’s more than clear to see this is a hitter with his feet under him.
 
I’m not sure how Baldelli will manage the playing time in the outfield. Designated hitter is now less of a revolving door with the addition of Gary Sanchez, so that takes away from opportunity as well. Expect Larnach to force Minnesota's hand in St. Paul though, and a cross-town promotion will come sooner rather than later. No matter what, banking on anything but the impressive emergence from the former Beaver seems like a bad bet for the year ahead.

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