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  • Who Will Be Pitching Staff's Odd Man Out?


    Nick Nelson

    Paul Molitor wasn't thrilled to be handed a 13-man pitching staff and three-man bench on Opening Day. Despite the team's success in these first seven games, he isn't feeling much better about it now.

    The manager has already been hamstrung on multiple occasions, including the end of a Tuesday loss which left him sounding a little exasperated.

    Something needs to change soon. That means the Twins have a tough decision to make.

    Image courtesy of Kim Klement, USA Today

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    Operating with just three position backups, all of whom are more or less defensive specialists, has limited Molitor's ability to tweak and plug into the lineup.

    When he wanted to give DH Robbie Grossman a day off Saturday, the uninspiring replacement was utility infielder Eduardo Escobar.

    On Tuesday, when Molitor opted to sit first baseman Joe Mauer and right fielder Max Kepler against a left-hander, the fill-ins at two premium offensive positions were Chris Gimenez and Danny Santana – the two worst bats on the roster. Late in the game, the manager was unable to pinch-run for Jason Castro, standing on second as the tying run, because Joe Mauer had just singled him there after pinch-hitting for Castro's backup.

    Meanwhile, the extra arms have yielded Molitor no benefit. Sure, Twins starters have surprisingly pitched deep into most games, but the eight-man bullpen would be extreme overkill regardless. In the first eight days of the season, Justin Haley, Tyler Duffey and Michael Tonkin got into games twice apiece. Craig Breslow recorded one single out.

    In theory, the roster that Minnesota opened this season with was palatable for a brief period. In practice, it's a joke. The front office must realize that it's unfair and, frankly, ill-advised to keep this competitive handicap in play. Molitor emphasized at the conclusion of camp his belief that the unideal initial setup was "short-term." He is no doubt ready to move on and restore some balance.

    The Twins have a few different options for doing so. The easy choice is calling up Kennys Vargas. He's healthy and made his fourth straight start in Rochester on Tuesday, slugging his first home run.

    Choosing a pitcher to remove from the bullpen, which has been stunningly effective in the early going, is less easy.

    We know the late-inning core of Brandon Kintzler, Ryan Pressly, Matt Belisle and Taylor Rogers will remain intact. After that, it gets a little trickier.

    Rule 5 pick Justin Haley has more or less proven his worth, with a clean one-inning debut followed by a long relief outing in Chicago that was going swimmingly through three innings before a pair of homers knocked him out. He seems safe.

    Tyler Duffey is the obvious pick if the team still views him as a starter. He could go to Triple-A, get stretched out and be ready to step into the rotation when needed. But are they still viewing him that way? Should they?

    Though he was framed as a swingman coming out of camp, Duffey's usage has not been reflective of such. Instead, he's been a high-leverage crutch for Molitor. And unsurprisingly, the righty has looked excellent in short bursts, flashing the stuff of a legit setup man. Why mess with that after he put up a 6.43 ERA in the Twins rotation last year?

    If Duffey will indeed accompany Pressly and Belisle as a late-inning weapon, it sort of marginalizes Michael Tonkin, who currently appears to have no real purpose on the roster. His two appearances have come in the two losses, both with the team down multiple runs. Once again, he is being used as a mop-up man, a role that suits him poorly.

    It's not evident from the first handful of games that he's gained any additional trust from Molitor. Then again, the Twins went out of their way to keep Tonkin out of spring, and he hasn't really done anything to lose favor on his end.

    Then there's Craig Breslow. He's made one appearance, relieving Kyle Gibson in the third game against the Royals. Molitor pulled him after three batters, and didn't turn to the veteran lefty in any of the next four contests.

    In his lone outing, Breslow threw only four of 11 pitches for strikes. In spring training, he walked seven over nine innings. The reinvented southpaw might have impressive spin and movement on his pitches, but there's no evidence he can command them. Clearly he doesn't have the manager's faith.

    So it seems there are three options at play if the Twins want to add a bat in short order. They can send out Duffey and get him back on a starting regimen in Rochester. They can expose Tonkin to waivers with hopes he'll have better odds of passing through now than at the end of spring. Or they can pull the plug on Breslow, whom they just handed a 40-man roster spot, after one outing.

    I'm not sure what the best option is, though I'd probably lean toward Breslow. I do know that the Twins need to cut down on pitchers and bulk up their bench, and I'm guessing everyone reading this will agree. What's your move?

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    You're absolutely right. My bad. Polanco looks like the answer at the plate. How's his fielding? I don't get to see the games but haven't read bad things. I'd take average...

    I've watched most of the games and listened to them all. Polanco has looked acceptable out there, even good on a few plays.

     

    Though he botched an easy grounder... yesterday, was it?

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    Oh and Angel Pagan isn't coming to Minnesota. He wants a chance to start and a contract with "a base salary approaching $5 mil" according to the Giants beat writers.  He would only come if we sent one of the 3 young OFs down, paid him like a starter,  and gave him a chance to play every day. 

     

    Alas, all three young OF are tearing the cover off the ball. They have a 1.081 OPS, that's Sano territory!

     

    Oh, check that. That OPS is if you add all three together.

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    Oh and Angel Pagan isn't coming to Minnesota. He wants a chance to start and a contract with "a base salary approaching $5 mil" according to the Giants beat writers.  He would only come if we sent one of the 3 young OFs down, paid him like a starter,  and gave him a chance to play every day. 

    He's without a contract on April 12th.  To quote one of my favorites, Dwight Yoakam, "Baby, things change."

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    I'd keep Breslow for another six weeks as a lefty specialist. It looks like Perkins is making progress in Ft. Myers, let Breslow go when Perkins is ready to come back...hopefully, in early June.

     

     

    Early June 2020?

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    Cut Craig Breslow and Robbie Grossman, bring up Kennys Vargas and either Zach Granite or Nico Goodrum, depending if you need infield or outfield replacement. I'd lean towards Granite because he's blazing fast if you need a pinch runner, and he's an excellent outfielder, unlike Grossman. Put Granite anywhere in the OF, there's little or no drop off defensively. Meanwhile Vargas is adequate at 1B and provides decent power from both sides of the plate. Looking at Goodrum's fielding stats, it looks like he's a possible super sub, playing anywhere on the field. 

     

    I like both Breslow and Grossman, but they don't fit this team. Breslow is pretty close to done in baseball, tho I'd love it if he became a pitching coach for the Twins. Grossman still can be valuable to a team that needs a high OBP pinch hitter. 

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    Cut Craig Breslow and Robbie Grossman, bring up Kennys Vargas and either Zach Granite or Nico Goodrum, depending if you need infield or outfield replacement. I'd lean towards Granite because he's blazing fast if you need a pinch runner, and he's an excellent outfielder, unlike Grossman. Put Granite anywhere in the OF, there's little or no drop off defensively. Meanwhile Vargas is adequate at 1B and provides decent power from both sides of the plate.

     

    I like both Breslow and Grossman, but they don't fit this team. Breslow is pretty close to done in baseball, tho I'd love it if he became a pitching coach for the Twins. Grossman still can be valuable to a team that needs a high OBP pinch hitter.

    Grossman has opened the season with an OBP over .400 and and OPS just under .800.

     

    You never cut that guy. Never ever. I don't care whether he perfectly fits your roster because you find space for that guy.

     

    Of course, Grossman may not maintain that OPS. Then you reconsider.

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    Grossman has opened the season with an OBP over .400 and and OPS just under .800.

    You never cut that guy. Never ever. I don't care whether he perfectly fits your roster because you find space for that guy.

    Of course, Grossman may not maintain that OPS. Then you reconsider.

    I agree that Grossman has an almost freakishly good ability to get on base. He squeezes out walks better than just about anybody I've ever seen. Not sure why pitchers don't challenge him more - he's not that good a hitter!

     

    The advantage with Granite is that he's also pretty good with the bat, but more of an offensive threat than Grossman. In a tight game, if you've got a guy on second base, do you want your hitter to walk, or get a single? Plus, Granite is maybe the best outfielder in the Twins minor league system, where Grossman's D is borderline. Last, would you rather have Grossman or Granite be that guy on second base in a tight game? Who's the better pinch runner? 

     

    I don't mean this as a knock on Grossman. I do like him as a ballplayer despite his limited gifts. He's a smart player and a shining example of plate discipline. However, overall it looks like Zach Granite would provide more benefits. 

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    A short bench puts pressure on the manager to make the right moves at the right time, because errors in judgement cannot be covered up by the fact that there are another warm body or two available to lean on to correct what was a bad move by the manager. That is what happened on Tuesday. Wrong move at the wrong time by Molitor in the 9th. Unfortunately, poor decisions by Molitor have been all too prevalent by Molitor so far this season. He's got to blame something, so rather than blame himself, he can blame the short bench. Seems to me each and every major league manager should be lobbying their team management and their team's Player's Association representative to increase the major league roster to 26 or 27. That said, a return to the days when training camp broke with a roster of 28 players for a limited period of time would seem to also be a positive move for all those in baseball.

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    I agree that Grossman has an almost freakishly good ability to get on base. He squeezes out walks better than just about anybody I've ever seen. Not sure why pitchers don't challenge him more - he's not that good a hitter!

     

    The advantage with Granite is that he's also pretty good with the bat, but more of an offensive threat than Grossman. In a tight game, if you've got a guy on second base, do you want your hitter to walk, or get a single? Plus, Granite is maybe the best outfielder in the Twins minor league system, where Grossman's D is borderline. Last, would you rather have Grossman or Granite be that guy on second base in a tight game? Who's the better pinch runner?

     

    I don't mean this as a knock on Grossman. I do like him as a ballplayer despite his limited gifts. He's a smart player and a shining example of plate discipline. However, overall it looks like Zach Granite would provide more benefits.

    Whoa. You'll have a hell of a time convincing me that Granite, with a MiLB career OPS of .703, is more of an offensive weapon than Grossman.

     

    You're seriously undervaluing Grossman's play with the Twins. Since joining the team, he has an OPS+ of 127.

     

    Miguel Sano's career OPS+ is 129.

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    A short bench puts pressure on the manager to make the right moves at the right time, because errors in judgement cannot be covered up by the fact that there are another warm body or two available to lean on to correct what was a bad move by the manager. That is what happened on Tuesday. Wrong move at the wrong time by Molitor in the 9th. Unfortunately, poor decisions by Molitor have been all too prevalent by Molitor so far this season. He's got to blame something, so rather than blame himself, he can blame the short bench. Seems to me each and every major league manager should be lobbying their team management and their team's Player's Association representative to increase the major league roster to 26 or 27. That said, a return to the days when training camp broke with a roster of 28 players for a limited period of time would seem to also be a positive move for all those in baseball.

     

    What wrong move did he make in the 9th? It's hard to argue with any of his decisions. 

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    I agree that Grossman has an almost freakishly good ability to get on base. He squeezes out walks better than just about anybody I've ever seen. Not sure why pitchers don't challenge him more - he's not that good a hitter!

     

    The advantage with Granite is that he's also pretty good with the bat, but more of an offensive threat than Grossman. In a tight game, if you've got a guy on second base, do you want your hitter to walk, or get a single? Plus, Granite is maybe the best outfielder in the Twins minor league system, where Grossman's D is borderline. Last, would you rather have Grossman or Granite be that guy on second base in a tight game? Who's the better pinch runner? 

     

    I don't mean this as a knock on Grossman. I do like him as a ballplayer despite his limited gifts. He's a smart player and a shining example of plate discipline. However, overall it looks like Zach Granite would provide more benefits. 

     

    That's all speculation. If we knew for a fact Granite provided all those things at the major league level it'd be one thing, but we don't. Not even close. Granite is still just a prospect, and not a very high end one at that. The only thing in there that we know for sure is that he provides more speed and better defense (not saying much there). There's a legitimate chance Granite is never more than a pinch runner/defensive replacement.

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    Granite could use a little AAA time, imo.....

    Not to mention that he's on the DL. [Edit: OK, I got ninja'd. :) ] Strained oblique, which he claims will not keep him sidelined long. Still, if we're talking about moves to make RIGHT NOW!!!1! then he's not a candidate.

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    ya, well, I kinda knew that, my point was maybe promoting him to replace anyone would require at least some AAA playing. But I guess I missed the part where we meant RIGHT NOW. My bad, as I was sort of working...

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    I would move on from Tonkin - Breslow should be given more chances before giving up on him and I think Duffey belongs in the pen.

     

    Also, I wonder if Granite can replace DanSan when he's ready to graduate from AAA - our 4th OF tends to play a lot, and I think he'd get enough development time playing behind Rosario-Buxton-Kepler.

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    Also, I wonder if Granite can replace DanSan when he's ready to graduate from AAA - our 4th OF tends to play a lot, and I think he'd get enough development time playing behind Rosario-Buxton-Kepler.

    It's not in the team's best interest for Granite to see an MLB roster in 2017, I think.

     

    The guy is a questionable hitter who hasn't played a single game above AA. What do you think happens to that guy if he faces MLB pitching? Aaron Hicks and Byron Buxton failed spectacularly in similar situations and they posted MiLB OPSes that were literally 150+ points higher than Granite.

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    Breslow is the easy choice in my opinion.  I wouldn't cry much if he got lost.  I don't think it happens in the next week (baring injury) simply because of the reasons others have already stated...

     

    Now that said, I still have hope for Duffey as a starter, though time in the pen can work to his advantage, as a number of starters have really stepped up their games after spending a few months working out of the pen.  I'm not against Duffey on that path, as I think he's a possible starter long term (now he may prefer to  stay there, and if so I'd keep him there), but he's probably next...

     

    And Tonkin, I'd try him out in some meaningful roles, and if he fails, cut bait.

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    It's not in the team's best interest for Granite to see an MLB roster in 2017, I think.

     

    The guy is a questionable hitter who hasn't played a single game above AA. What do you think happens to that guy if he faces MLB pitching? Aaron Hicks and Byron Buxton failed spectacularly in similar situations and they posted MiLB OPSes that were literally 150+ points higher than Granite.

    Yeah, that's why I said "until he graduates AAA", but that may take until 2018. You're right, we shouldn't push him. 

     

    I wonder if Palka will be ready sometime this year. He could fill that role too, though he very well could post a Buxton-esque strikeout ratio.

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    Yeah, that's why I said "until he graduates AAA", but that may take until 2018. You're right, we shouldn't push him.

     

    I wonder if Palka will be ready sometime this year. He could fill that role too, though he very well could post a Buxton-esque strikeout ratio.

    I have some hope Palka can put it together this year and get a taste of MLB pitching.
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    The baseball chief and the general manager have a plan for this team.  A big part of that plan is to hire their own manager.  The easiest way to delete the current manager is to allow him to lose..... a lot.  Any roster moves they may make at this time will not be designed to make the team better.

     

    That would be an incredibly dangerous game played by a first time POBO and first time GM trying to secure a long term future in Major League Baseball.

     

    If it backfired... I'm not sure how they would explain that strategy in job interviews and come out looking good.  

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    Yeah, that's why I said "until he graduates AAA", but that may take until 2018. You're right, we shouldn't push him. 

     

    I wonder if Palka will be ready sometime this year. He could fill that role too, though he very well could post a Buxton-esque strikeout ratio.

    Considering Palka and Granite for the same outfield role strikes me as about the same as considering ByungHo Park and Engelb Vielma for one infield opening.

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    Considering Palka and Granite for the same outfield role strikes me as about the same as considering ByungHo Park and Engelb Vielma for one infield opening.

    I think the Twins have more flexibility in that role than most teams given the starting OF of Buxton, Kepler, and Rosario.

     

    But that flexibility disappears if Buxton is demoted.

     

    But until that happens, I think the Twins should consider a bat-first fourth outfielder over an all-glove, no hit outfielder.

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    Oh, sure, pieces can be moved about. Much better now than the corner-DH-clogged days not so long ago with Willingham and Doumit as important players.

     

    I was just reacting, maybe too specifically, to what I believed to be the question of replacing DanSan's role. Agreed, virtually anyone good can take a roster spot, and then the manager must work out the details, given that reasonable positional flexibility is present.

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    I have to be honest. Escobar is more inspiring than Grossman. Escobar is is a proven commodity, Grossman had one good season. Sure he BB's a little bit more, but Escobar is a more proven hitter and defensive player at crucial positions. This post is not a shot at Grossman FWIW.

     

    Escobar is a good player. Why do we forget that he is one of the better Utility Infielders in the game?

     

    I will never see how he is a downgrade from Grossman. Escobar is more valuable to this team.

     

    1.) We're talking about having a DH not a utility infielder. No one is saying "get rid of Escobar", just that having Escobar DH is ridiculous. It's Jason Tyner 2.0. 

     

    Escobar's career OPS = .682, Grossman's = .723. Grossman's OPS vs. righties (his weak side) = .696. Escobar vs. righties = .659. You might as well use Grossman (who is a solid platoon partner but not a full-time DH and not useful against righties) than replace him with Escobar. If the question was "DH Sano and Escobar plays 3B vs DH Grossman and Sano plays 3B" I'd get your point but if we're talking DHs (which we are), it's insane.

     

    2.) Palka is an interesting option no one talks about. He hit righties and lefties pretty evenly in the minors in 2014 and 2016 (though not in 2015 to be fair) and is a much better bat at 1B than Gimenez on days Mauer sits. And when the Twins play righties (70% of starters) they'd be able to DH Palka instead of Grossman, who slots much better into a DH-vs-lefties/bench bat role.

     

    Palka is a viable option besides Vargas/Park. He doesn't solve the lefties dilemma but that's only 30% of pitchers. Let's solve the 70% problem.

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    It's not in the team's best interest for Granite to see an MLB roster in 2017, I think.

     

    The guy is a questionable hitter who hasn't played a single game above AA. What do you think happens to that guy if he faces MLB pitching? Aaron Hicks and Byron Buxton failed spectacularly in similar situations and they posted MiLB OPSes that were literally 150+ points higher than Granite.

     

    He also hits lefty. The ideal twins 4th OF can hit from the right side of the plate. I know we all hate Danny Santana here but he's a pretty decent 25th man. Very good OF defense, adequate IF defense and he can steal a base and pinch run well. Switch hitter too if you need him to hit.

     

    The problem is not having him on the roster, it's how he's used. He shouldn't be starting anything but the occasional game unless there are injuries - Grossman is bad in the OF but he should spell guys out there. Santana should be a late inning pinch runner in every close game and a defensive sub for Grossman when he plays.

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    Something needs to change soon. 

     

    I've said before that the opening day roster looks like multiple people running different directions while trying to meet in the middle and I still believe that.

     

    I admit that I spent my time expressing concern about the lack of aggressiveness toward the building of the bullpen. 

     

    However... The decision makers had all winter to put together a 40 man roster and all of spring training to decide on a 25 man roster and this is what they come up with. 

     

    I didn't understand it and I didn't agree with it.  

     

    But Soon?... after 28 Innings of bullpen work... 4 runs allowed... 26 strikeouts. If the powers that be made an adjustment to a bullpen producing those results... If they changed course with a 5-3 record a mere 8 games after spending the off season picking out a 40 man roster and all of spring training choosing this for a 25 man roster. 

     

    That would be about the time that I decide that we have hired a couple of wishy washy dudes who are nowhere near ready to run a baseball franchise. 

     

    I'll forgive them for not agreeing with me... I won't forgive them if they can't agree with themselves. 

     

     

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