Who Should Be In Line For Fifth Starter Spot?

The Twins need to take the best 12 north. They need to put the best 5 in the rotation. Last year's performance matters and Hughes and Santana are in. Gibson would need to be down in velocity to be out. If May and Meyer are throwing better than Nolasco, Pelfrey and Milone, the young pitchers need to be in the rotation. None of these 5 should be "in line". They need to go out and earn the job.

I told myself that I would be going to bed before midnight for sure tonight, but first I'll quickly read through the article on who should be the Twins 5th starter. Sadly, after reading all 92 posts on this subject, I'm not going to make my deadline, but it was worth it! Why? The title tells us everything- " the 5th starter." FIFTH!

Last year at this time, most of us thought that it might be possible the Twins didn't even have one reliable guy.

Now look at us- studs galore! Well, maybe not studs, but certainly possibilities. I'm just coming off my fantasy football season, and one of the ways I ranked players was by tiers. My tiers for the 2015 staff look like this:

Tier 1- Hughes

Santana

Gibson

Tier 2- May

Meyer

Nolasco

Tier 3- Milone

Pelfrey

From this listing, Tier 1 is set(1-2-3 guys). So now we need 2 guys for either Tier 2 or Tier 3, or a combination of tiers. Nolasco indicated he did not want, or would not want to pitch in the bullpen. So, I'd say to him-"OK-you've got one month. Pitch well, you stay. Pitch poorly-the bullpen is yours." He'd be the number 4 guy, but with a rather short leash. Tell May and Meyer they are both going north, but how they pitch in ST will determine who the number 5 guy is. The "loser" in that battle would go to the BP for now, but will be told he will get first chance when injuries or ineffectiveness happen. The Tier 3 guys would be my long relievers, or 6-7 inning guys.

Any way you cut it, the thing that matters is progress from Meyer and May. The scenario I dread is Meyer lacking efficiency and command and May being too wild. Because, even if Milone, Pelfrey, and Nolasco all turn their performances around, their best is pretty much mediocrity, and we're treated to a 75% chance of witnessing another loss when they pitch.

I still think we're due for one last season where wins and losses, practically speaking, don't matter and individual progress is paramount. I'm really hoping that all three of the veterans return to mediocrity, and that we can offload one (Nolasco?) before opening day for a reasonable return and another (Milone?) at the trade deadline for a prospect.

Progress by Meyer and/or May isn't a given, but dammit, it's high time we have a little good fortune!

That kind of logic/point basically means that whatever the Twins decided is best then we should agree with that. Doesn't leave much room for discussion in places like this even though that's the way it will end up, because they are the deciders. That doesn't actually mean it's the right move and agreeing it's the right move just because they say it is, is a big appeal to authority.

 

IMO, it was a bad idea to sign him the first time and it was an even worse idea to sign him for even more money and more years a second time. Just because they decided it was the right move both times, doesn't mean it was.

The second Mike Pelfrey contract defies logic.  I still don't understand why Terry Ryan did it.  He pitched terribly in 2013 and only started 5 games in 2014 before getting hurt.  Why on earth would you hand out another 2 year contract after such a poor tract record? 

Clearly Terry Ryan was dumpster diving when they signed him in the first place and the second deal was blind faith that Pelfrey would be healthy the following year.   

 May will probably be the one to end up in the pen for his career, anyway.  How about Meyer the 5th starter (who probably has the best stuff on the staff) and let May work from the pen.

Based on what?  Last seasons performance?  May arguably pitched better than Meyer and displayed better control of ALL of his pitches than Meyer who is still struggling with all his offspeed stuff.  I disagree completely.  May is currently my pick for the #5 spot this season.  He has better stuff than Milone, Pelfrey and arguably Nolasco.  Plus he has displayed a knack for striking guys out.

Tyler Mason ‏@FSNtylermason  · 17m17 minutes ago 
Terry Ryan was also asked about Mike Pelfrey in the bullpen. Ryan: "I'm more interested to see what he can do as a starter." #MNTwins

Were those groans I heard?

Boggling is two tame when I re-think that decision.  Even worse so is Terry Ryan has not seen enough regarding Pelfrey as a starter.

Some people are reluctant to admit a mistake--especially one that they repeated!.  On a serious note, if neither May or Meyer are "good enough" to be on the rotation then Ryan should be fired.  He gutted the OF for "starting pitching"--and none were "deemed 'good enough' to be in the rotation".

In the case of the May trade, Revere's career OPS is .666, effectively the same as Sam Fuld, about as replacement level as it gets. 

I'm not a big fan of Revere, nor do I bemoan the loss of him, but to be fair, he's averaged 2 WAR over the last 3 years.

Agreed. The bottom line is we need to find out about the guys with a higher ceiling and the sooner we find out, the sooner the path to winning will become more clear.  Maybe they aren't the answer and free agency is the best route.  We just have to know.  Let's see if we can get a usable assesment on them in 1.5 - 2  years as opposed to the four years we saw with Parmelee or even the three years we are about to see with Hicks and Pinto. 

Just a word of caution though. If we had insisted on a "useable assessment" of 1.5-2 years on Plouffe to cite just one example (particularly if it was the FANS' assessment), he'd have been DFA'd two years ago, just like a number of commenters on TD suggested. 

Guys like Parmelee aren't kept around because the Twins don't have a useable assessment. It's not that simple. Thankfully we're entering a stage where they can trot out better alternatives now.

I'm not worried about Pelfrey.  If he can beat out all the other candidates then more power to him.  I think the chance of that is minimal at best but I just think people should be comfortable with the idea that we have several viable candidates to fill the 5th spot and to fill in for injury.

Jimmer, b ref has revere at 3.8 career war across basically 4 full seasons. 2.6 of that was in one year. Primarily driven by him playing cf and having a good average and swiping bags.

 

I know you are not saying or even implying this, but that is a trade you want your gm to make all day and live with the results. Some have pointed to that being a bad trade and I don't see how.

Revere wasn't the only OF traded, Span was also traded.  Their "replacements" have made a mess of the OF especially when one considers the cattle-call that filled the entire OF.  Trading for future talent (especially better talent) is a fine move, but if May and Meyer aren't SPs--the moves were downright terrible. 

Most of the folks here remember that Pelfrey was, for several months of 2013, the best starting pitcher we had on the staff.  For a period, Sam Deduno took over.

So I'm a little reluctant to "anoint" anyone.  Anyone here want to look at 2013 posts about who we thought would be the core rotation come 2015?

I'm also very reluctant (points well made by Leviathan and brvama) to put a lot of stock in stats compiled in March.  I've been to spring training.  I don't want it to be a full-blown competition.  I would rather pitchers went to the mound saying that they were going to work on their mechanics/slider/cutter/location without feeling like raw numbers were going to dictate their futures.  That same mentality applies to batters - we know that Hicks can rake when he knows what's coming.

I'll make one more point here.  I try to trust the staff to decide what's best.  At the same time, I do understand that this decision is, always, more than which pitcher gives the team the best chance to win today.  It's an imperfect analogy, but I watched a Duke team in the early 80s when Krzyzewski marched out freshmen Dawkins, Bilas, Henderson, and Alarie over holdovers Emma, Engelland and Meagher, because he knew that those freshmen were the core of the future. 

This team needs a blueprint.  It needs leadership; it needs to sell tickets.  But more than anything, they need to figure out a path to be "good" and that's been sorely lacking for a few years.  If that means we choose the guys that are eventually going to be on the good team, then do that.  I'll be giddy it if we strike lightning in a bottle.  I watched it happen a dozen years ago.  But if we keep losing and dancing around the rebuild with a roster of guys who are, today, better than the alternatives, I'm not just going to avoid going to games.  I'm gonna join that riot.

Jimmer, b ref has revere at 3.8 career war across basically 4 full seasons. 2.6 of that was in one year. Primarily driven by him playing cf and having a good average and swiping bags.

 

I know you are not saying or even implying this, but that is a trade you want your gm to make all day and live with the results. Some have pointed to that being a bad trade and I don't see how.

yeah, I don't like or use B-Ref WAR.  IMO, Fangraphs is better.  I also don't think it was a bad trade for us. 

Revere wasn't the only OF traded, Span was also traded.  Their "replacements" have made a mess of the OF especially when one considers the cattle-call that filled the entire OF.  Trading for future talent (especially better talent) is a fine move, but if May and Meyer aren't SPs--the moves were downright terrible. 

oh yeah, I get that.  I miss Span a lot.  I was just saying I don't really miss Revere, though we must be fair and say he's provided okay value over the last three years . We're still waiting for the value we traded for both.

Revere wasn't the only OF traded, Span was also traded.  Their "replacements" have made a mess of the OF especially when one considers the cattle-call that filled the entire OF.  Trading for future talent (especially better talent) is a fine move, but if May and Meyer aren't SPs--the moves were downright terrible.

 

The cost of trading for pitching prospects is high. Trading established talent for pitching talent in A ball or AA ball is going to land on the side of major league talent much more often. The gamble pays off when you get a good major league starter for all of their team control years.

Until they can develop their own pitching talent, the Twins need to continue to seek similar moves.

The cost of trading for pitching prospects is high. Trading established talent for pitching talent in A ball or AA ball is going to land on the side of major league talent much more often. The gamble pays off when you get a good major league starter for all of their team control years.

 

Until they can develop their own pitching talent, the Twins need to continue to seek similar moves.

Or, they can just buy it--like they actually did!

Or, they can just buy it--like they actually did!

I don't agree that they can be successful buying a starting rotation. Last year they bought three starters. They had another in his second year of purchase. One was great and three were awful. It would be hard to find three starters who performed as poorly. Together the four accounted for about a third of the budget and 11 games under .500. Can they actually buy it? That's what they bought last year. The Twins improved to 70 wins by actually buying 80% of a rotation.

What part of the budget will the Twins spend on Hughes, Santana, Nolasco and Pelfrey this year? I think they will have a total of 16 years committed to them. Can we get 10-12 good seasons out of 16? Is that enough for the cost? Is it enough to move towards 90 wins? So far they are 1-2 in seasons purchased.

I don't believe they can win by buying a rotation. The best year is often the first year as pitchers lose velocity and decline as they enter or continue in their thirties. I believe the only way out of this cycle of mediocrity is to develop a core of cost controlled young pitching and then give them the starts in the major leagues that are necessary for their development.