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Ask any Twins fan what area of the current roster scares them the most, and the answer will surely be either the top of the starting rotation or in the bullpen. Despite a stronger group of starter candidates and some rosy projections for the relief staff, the fanbase isn’t going to believe it until they see it.
A similar mindset was apparent heading into the 2020 season, and the Twins ended up having one of the best relief corps in the game. They ranked third in baseball with a combined 3.6 fWAR, sixth with a 3.62 ERA, and second with a stellar 77% strand rate.
A surprising leader in this group was off-season waiver claim Matt Wisler, who finished the year with a glowing 1.07 ERA and 32.7% strikeout rate.
He was seen as a relative project coming into camp that year, but the Twins’ decision makers saw something in him that gave them hope that he could turn into a weapon out of the bullpen, or someone that could at the very least provide value given their minimum salary. They didn’t know that their project would transform into a buzz saw by drastically changing his pitch repertoire. He completely ditched his seldom-used curveball and changeup and started throwing his slider over 80% of the time and mixed in a very occasional fastball.
Flash forward to present day, and fans will probably want absolutely nothing to do with a project. As good as Wisler was, the results of the projects that followed were either disastrous or disappointing, to say the least.
But could any of the current members in the Twins’ bullpen benefit from a change similar to Wisler’s in 2020?
Danny Coulombe
A minor-league deal signee, Coulombe represents an ideal candidate to tweak and tinker with if the Twins are looking for another project. Since coming to Minnesota in 2020, he’s actually been quite effective when healthy, based on his combined 2.92 ERA, 8.2 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 across 49 innings pitched. For a low-leverage option out of the bullpen, you could certainly do much worse.
But what happens if his strikeout rate improves with a change in pitch repertoire? That’s when things get interesting, as they did for Wisler.
Coulombe has experimented with a slew of different pitches over his career, with his fastball, slider and curveball being constant throughout. His sinker and cutter, however, have seen mixed results.
Notably, his fastball velocity went up last year (averaged 91.8 MPH compared to 90.6 MPH in 2021), and he used his curveball and slider significantly less (66.6% in 2022, 43.5% in 2021). He did this in an effort to reintroduce his changeup, which he used 19.6% of the time. He saw great surface results when healthy, with a sterling 1.46 ERA and an 81.3% strand rate in his 12 innings pitched. His slider, while used less-often in 2022, was still an above-average offering, and was his best pitch in 2021 (1.6 runs above average). It should remain in his mix, and he should eliminate his curveball.
If Coulombe can stay healthy in 2023, continue to add/maintain good velocity on his fastball and up his usage of his slider, he could open some eyes. Maybe his rediscovered changeup can still play a factor against right-handed hitters and his slider is his weapon of choice against lefties. Either way, a more-refined balance in his repertoire could keep him effective as long as he remains healthy.
Trevor Megill
The tall right-hander debuted with the Twins in May and impressed with his blazing fastball right away. By the end of the season, Megill found himself in the 97th percentile for fastball velocity, 92nd percentile in fastball spin rate and the 85th percentile for curveball spin rate. These are enticing numbers under the hood, but he seemed to get a bad reputation after losing some gas starting in August.
At one point, he gave up at least one earned run in seven of eight appearances, and lost the trust of frustrated Twins fans. While many were ready to see him removed from the roster, it would be foolish to give up on such an electric arm after struggling in their sophomore season.
His fastball plays at the big league level. That much is certain. Can he get one of his breaking balls to be a true complementary offering?
His curveball has the aforementioned spin rate that surely encouraged him to throw it 30.9% of the time in 2022. He only allowed two extra base hits on the yacker, but the average exit velocity on it was 94.1 MPH. Can Megill find a way to get better results on this pitch, or should he start to emphasize his slider more?
The slide piece got knocked around a lot more in 2022 (.536 slugging percentage against), but it is by far his best offering in terms of getting swinging strikes (36.5% in 2022). If he can continue to get whiffs on this pitch while upping its usage, it could lead to more strikeouts at the risk of harder contact. For a project-type pitcher in lower-leverage (or even minor league) opportunities, this is a risk worth taking.
Kenta Maeda
It appears that the 2020 American League Cy Young award runner-up will get every opportunity to stick in the starting rotation after missing all of last season. That’s fine for the time being, but it would not be surprising to see him in the bullpen at some point in 2023. Tommy John surgery recovery can be unpredictable, especially for pitchers on the wrong side of 30.
When push comes to shove, Maeda didn’t pitch any MLB innings last year, and only had 106 under his belt before succumbing to surgery in 2021. There’s no way to reasonably expect him to be a reliable starting pitcher for 30 starts this year.
If he approaches an innings limit and the team decides to try him in the bullpen, it will be a facet of the game that Maeda is familiar with. Even if it isn’t his preference, he could be a welcome addition among the relief corps if he optimizes his repertoire like he has done in the past.
In 2019, King Kenta pitched 17 innings out of the Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen down the stretch and had terrific results. He had a 3.24 ERA in relief, with a 11.9 K/9 and just 2.2 BB/9, and he left about 80% of baserunners stranded. So what happened when he made that move?
In the month of September, his slider usage rose to 43.9% and he essentially dropped his curveball and sinker. He mainly used that slider, his 4-seam fastball and his splitter. Opponents hit a meager .164/.220/.382 against him that month. His simplified game plan paid off immensely, even if it was just temporary.
If Maeda can rediscover that balance in his repertoire, and adjust it even further in the likelihood that his fastball loses velocity post-surgery, those results would play in a major way.
But what do you think? Should the club try tinkering with these pitchers? Are there any other arms that come to mind?
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