Wherefore Art Thou Romero?

If and when Romero reaches his 1A potential we are officially a WS contender. The current rotation is sufficient to make the playoffs over a 162 game season, but for playoff results and overall team swagger, we NEED that 1A (please be a 1A....please be a 1A....PLEASE be a 1A) 

Big take here:

I may be an idiot for saying this but I have been more than impressed with Romero and Gordon this spring. There is no doubt to me that these kids are ready to play and I think you bring them North very early. If Gibson is the Kyle of the first half, I think you cut bait and give the kid a shot at the bigs. That kind of fire power brings a big boost to a #5 spot. I also think Gordon belongs at SS. This kid is hitting 500 and looks the part. I’ll take the fielding lumps. Hell, if you aren’t going to sign back Dozier, trade him off and put Gordon at 2B, though I’d prefer to keep Dozier around.

Right now Romero is pitching later on games. Will see if he pitches earlier, that would mean Twins are interested in seeing if he can come north

Right now Romero is pitching later on games. Will see if he pitches earlier, that would mean Twins are interested in seeing if he can come north

Bingo! Would love to see him pitch against more MLB competition rather than the AA, AAA, and AAAA guys he's been pitching against lately. Have him immediately follow one of the starters or have him start one.

Start games in Rochester through late July.  Then shift to the bullpen for a few weeks before brining him up in early August.  

That will get him innings so he can contend as a starter in ST, 2019.  Will also get him experience in the bigs AND help the Twins go on a nice playoff run in 2018.

As the unofficial fan of bringing in the young players I would love to see Romero displace Gibson.  If it requires some BP first, fine, but this is our best arm, our best shot at the future.  

Perhaps my favorite part of the Odorizzi and Lynn additions is it gives the Twins the flexibility not to force Romero or Gonsalves to the bigs early, like was done with Berrios.

 

In AAA they can focus on development, so they can work on things they need to work on, and their innings pitched is easier to control. If they are in the Majors the focus shifts to winning, at the expense of development.

I don't necessarily agree with this. Pitchers need to work on pitching to big leaguers at the big league level. AAA won't teach you to do that.

Berrios absolutely shredded AAA. He learned how to get AAA hitters out. However, there is a fine line between AAA hitters and big leaguers in terms of pitch recognition. He racked up Ks in AAA that weren't there for him in the majors because the hitters werent chasing the same pitch they would in AAA. There comes a point where your stuff is there and you just need to learn the appropriate locatarion and pitch selection for the situation. That is a lot more vital and demanding in the MLB where you get away with many fewer mistakes.

On the job training is the only way. He would've gone through that adjustment whether it was at age 21 or at age 30. Keeping players languishing in AAA assuming there is a magic date in on which they wake up and understand how to get major league players out is damaging to the player and the team, IMO. The player is being robbed of earlier service time related payouts and the team is potentially missing some productive years (for example, if they had brought Berrios up to take his lumps a year earlier, he likely would've reached his current ability to record outs in the MLB a year earlier).

There are factors and exceptions of course. But, IMO, that paradigm needs to be shifted.

Perhaps my favorite part of the Odorizzi and Lynn additions is it gives the Twins the flexibility not to force Romero or Gonsalves to the bigs early, like was done with Berrios. 

Do you really think Berrios was rushed to the bigs early?     I would guess that he could have been in the minors another 5 years and still would have gotten so amped up that he would have over thrown when he got up here.    I say that because I think he still does sometimes.   I think he might be farther along now if he had come up sooner, in fact.    If when he came up he did the same things in the majors he did in the minors he would have been way more successful.    It had less to do with his abilities and more to do with being human.   Some can make the transition easy.   For some it takes a while to calm the nerves and trust their stuff.  Blyleven came up and was awesome right away at 19.   Koufax came up and it took him 6 years to really get going.   I don't know what the right course is for Romero.   Its possible he is our best pitcher right now and that he is just wasting bullets pitching in the minors.  Its possible there are things he should be working on without the pressures of the majors.  

Here's how I see this playing out for 2018.  This kid is too talented to not at least give him a shot at continuing as a starter.  In 2018, I suspect he'll be on some kind of innings limit.  So, leave him in Rochester's rotation through...say, July 1.  Let him make 15 starts there and throw 100 innings.  Then, he comes to Minnesota to pitch out of the bullpen the remainder of this season...hopefully in a playoff push.  Next year, Erv is likely gone.  Lynn's contract will be up.  There will be rotation spots up for grabs.  Give him a real chance to crack the rotation.

Nice article with a great title! Love it!

Perhaps my favorite part of the Odorizzi and Lynn additions is it gives the Twins the flexibility not to force Romero or Gonsalves to the bigs early, like was done with Berrios.

 

In AAA they can focus on development, so they can work on things they need to work on, and their innings pitched is easier to control. If they are in the Majors the focus shifts to winning, at the expense of development. 

Exactly! Berrios got thrown to the wolves. We're past that. With patience and luck, we're going to have a great big lefty in the middle of the rotation for some time to come, and shortly thereafter we may have the mythical ace if Romero can refine his change up.

He will learn little in AA. He needs to pitch somewhere his mistakes will be punished. Doubt there is room for him in the majors, so hope he can start in Rochester.

Something else that needs to considered here:

Romero is with the big league club....but he's not pitching to big league competition. He's seen a couple of good hitters in ST, but he's not seen great ones in succession like he will in a live regular season game against the Indians, for example.

Not sure how much we should buy into this.

While SP prospects can and do contribute out of the pen, I'd like to see us aim to allow Romero to contribute in 2018 as a starter if necessary, through the end of the MLB season and into a potential postseason.

As an example, Lance McCullers Jr. was coming off similar low innings and inexperience entering 2015:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=mccull002lan&type=pgl&year=2015

They started him slowly in the minor leagues, promoted him in May, demoted him for 2 weeks of rest in August, and then let him finish the season in MLB and in the postseason rotation. Wound up with 125 IP in MLB, 35 in the minors, and 6 more in the postseason.

The Twins could follow a similar pattern with Romero in 2018, perhaps a little more conservative with a target of 150 IP before any potential postseason innings.

Obviously this wouldn't be locked in stone, but if we start out with this template, it is still easy to shift to other plans as the season develops -- leave him in AAA if he's not ready, or shift him to the pen, or shut him down. But if you start out with one of those other plans, it becomes almost impossible to even have the option of Romero starting through September.

Back on my soapbox here.    Your plan might be what the Twins are thinking and I hope it works out that way because it would mean we get some meaningful production out of him this year.    Its the whole idea of shutting him down or limiting his innings that gets me.   Any pitcher that has pain or fatigue should be given rest but the notion that a guy that has thrown 150 innings and is going strong should be shut down for 5 months and that rest somehow leads to accumulated ability to go another 20 innings the following year just doesn't make sense to me and has no real scientific backing that I have ever seen.    I get trying to insure pitchers have the best chance of having a long career but I just don't think this does it.    Blyleven along with others pitched 280 (at age 20)  innings with no bad effect.   Some guys blow out their arms 10 days into spring training.    Just another case of managing out of fear.    Get his form right.  Try to keep him from over throwing and then monitor his health throughout the season.    

Or, he starts in AA apparently.

Could just be procedural