Where Can the Twins Add the Most Value?

1] DH: I wouldn't be disappointed in Ozuna, but I really don't like the 4yr commitment. Part of the reason I like Cruz is the short term investment while Krilloff, Rooker and Larnach get their feet wet.

No Cruz? I like Brantley for 2yrs because he HITS, gets OB, has 20 HR and 40 Dbls power and can play a legitimate OF. He could hit 1-3 in this lineup and be very valuable.

2] SP: I like Paxton. I like that he's been very good when healthy. I like that he's LH.

I like Odorizzi better. Still can't understand what's so terrible about a really good and sometimes great #3/4 SP even if he is only good for 5-6 IP.

I also think there's going to be a TON of low cost fliers available late looking for an opportunity. Choose the right flier and you might find a #5 steal.

3] INF: With 3 excellent choices as a new SS, I don't see a trade for one. The question simply is, do the Twins want to make this move?

If they do, then make your choice, shuffle Polanco or Arraez around and then one of several cheap options that are still out there for an 11th man role. Example: Cabrera for $2-3M.

If you aren't going to make the big SS move, then make your choice for the 10th man role amongst the top choices, and then STILL sign that 11th man.

But make a decision!

4] BP: Rosenthal has a big arm and might be had for $7M. Yates might be as good or better and come cheaper at $5M. Soria and Clippard and a few others are still available for $2.5-3M. Just because the Twins aren't going to sign a $10M relief arm doesn't mean there isn't some quality and real value out there.

Nice article Cody. I like Cruz for 2 years, Odorizzi for 3 years and Simmons for DEFENSE ( which will help our pitching) for 1 year.  Hopefully the powers that be will then give SS to the # 1 draft pick and let him learn and sink or swim with Lewis. 

My choices would be to get Didi for a 2 year deal... very good defense and good offense... Simion "could" be a good bat but his defense is suspect. Simmons defense is great but offensively is not much to write home about. split the difference. Polanco goes to utility guy and has a better shot at staying healthy and productive. 

Cruz likely would like to come back ... if can figure it out fine. If not Brantley would be a great second choice and can step in - in the OF occasionally if needed. 

Pitching is the key here. Am still holding out for Gray out of Cincy but may settle for Gray out of Colorado in a trade. If going FA I would still like T. Walker as still fairly young and still has some good upside. At the 4/5 starter would be a good bet. 

We have been tied to several bigger name FA relievers and am still thinking the Twins will spend here as the value of a good bullpen in the modern game is huge. Hoping for one of Rosenthal or Colome. Others are out there and this "may" be the most important "get" .. Not sexy but huge in importance.... probably should have noted in the article.... 

It is an interesting winter ritual - check TD, see which pitchers and players off the best fit for the team have been signed or traded to another team.  Adjust the lists and wait for the next move.  

My choices would be to get Didi for a 2 year deal... very good defense and good offense... Simion "could" be a good bat but his defense is suspect. Simmons defense is great but offensively is not much to write home about.  

Interesting perspective. I feel you've got it backward though. According to Statcast Outs-Above-Average, Gregorius and Polanco are exactly even over the last two seasons and they are poor defenders in the same way as well.

Using UZR to tip the scales, I'd actually prefer Polanco playing SS over Gregorius, providing their numbers stay consistent. Polanco is also 3 years younger, something that probably matters more at SS than any other position. 

Semien's mediocre defensive numbers are largely skewed by poor "to his right" numbers. Seeing as he has had the best defensive 3B alive playing to his right during that time, I can excuse him not making plays that are converted to outs by Chapman.

And of course, Simmons is probably the best fielding SS MLB has seen since Ozzie Smith. He hits LHP well and that is something the Twins need.

All contracts being equal, Semien is likely the best of the group and is a great fit, improving both the lineup and the defense. 

Simmons improves the defense the most and, while he struggles against RHP (Polanco can start 30% of those games), his bat against LHP will still be an asset.

Gregorius just seems redundant with Polanco in the field and in a lineup with plentiful LHB in Polanco(see splits), Arraez, Kepler, Kiriloff, Cave, and even Gordon, Blankenhorn, and Wade. 

Also, fantastic article Cody.