Where Are We Now? (152 Down, 10 To Go)

I absolutely am rooting for that final WC spot and a trip to the WC game. What an accomplishment for this team, especially after last season. And I don't buy in to whether or not the Twins ARE a true playoff team or not. They are playing winning baseball, are in the hunt, and have been most all season. If you are one of the top 5 teams, you are one of the top 5 teams.

But even if they would lose to the Yankees again and not advance, or somehow far at the end and not make it, this season is a resounding success and the future is looking pretty bright for our favorite team.

I'll say this: No matter what happens, this season should be considered a raging, shocking success. 

But it won't feel like it if they don't make the playoffs. 

I was probably as optimistic as anyone heading into the season, meaning I could easily envision a 10-15-win improvement. And yet here they are, awfully close to the second wild card spot. 

This season gives me a lot of hope heading into 2018 that the core can improve, and perhaps Sano can stay healthy for the full year, while perhaps the team does something to address its pitching staff and its bullpen. The Twins have the makings of a very good team if they can just do that.

But not making the playoffs will feel like a disappointment.

We should be large supporters of Seattle, Houston, and Cleveland (except when we are playing them).

Oh, and we also need to win both series against Detroit. Going 3-1 and 2-1 against Detroit gets us to 83 wins. My target is 84, but taking care of business with Detroit is key.

Back when everyone thought the target was 85 i pointed out that would mean that teams that had played .500 ball to that point had to play significantly better to reach that mark.   It was possible but unlikely.   Now the most likely magic number is 83 which would still require some teams to play at least at a 7-4 clip to tie us.   I would definitely lock in 84 if given the chance and maybe 83.    I wouldn't lock in 82 but that would still have a pretty fair chance of doing the job.   Most important right now is winning today's game.

With Houston and Cleveland vying for the #1 seed and the best chance to feast on the Twins in the playoffs, it is good that they both have games left v. the Angels.

I don't think the Twins will need 85 wins, but 85 will guarantee it. I think the Twins have 5, maybe 6 wins left in them in the regular season. This means the Angels need 7-8 wins to TIE the Twins. Not likely. The Twins would need to crash hard to lose this thing.

The Tigers just seem too easy to be true. 

Lousy teams are relaxed and having fun - this is dangerous if our team is pressing.  

Being a MN fan is always a nervous condition.  

The Tigers just seem too easy to be true. 

 

Lousy teams are relaxed and having fun - this is dangerous if our team is pressing.  

 

Being a MN fan is always a nervous condition.  

The Tigers have played the Twins hard all year. These will not be easy wins for the Twins, but they will be a hell of a lot easier than NY and Cleveland.

I absolutely am rooting for that final WC spot and a trip to the WC game. What an accomplishment for this team, especially after last season. And I don't buy in to whether or not the Twins ARE a true playoff team or not. They are playing winning baseball, are in the hunt, and have been most all season. If you are one of the top 5 teams, you are one of the top 5 teams.

But even if they would lose to the Yankees again and not advance, or somehow far at the end and not make it, this season is a resounding success and the future is looking pretty bright for our favorite team.

What he said.

My comfort level is algebra related.    I still remember 06 when everyone said we had to sweep the last series of the year because Detroit was playing the weak KC Royals.   We won one game and Detroit got swept.    Its always in the back of my mind that could happen to us.   So here is the algebra.      I will be pretty happy when we are X games up with X games to go.    Happier still if we get to X games up with X-1 games to go.    That's it.   We are in SSS season.

if Mejia shows us anything at all I am hoping Colon does not make the playoff squad.

My comfort level is algebra related.    I still remember 06 when everyone said we had to sweep the last series of the year because Detroit was playing the weak KC Royals.   We won one game and Detroit got swept.    Its always in the back of my mind that could happen to us.   So here is the algebra.      I will be pretty happy when we are X games up with X games to go.    Happier still if we get to X games up with X-1 games to go.    That's it.   We are in SSS season.

if Mejia shows us anything at all I am hoping Colon does not make the playoff squad.

So you will be happy when the magic number is 1 or, even better, 0. I think that's true for all of us.

As far as algebra goes, the Angels need to win x+2 games, x being however many games the Twins win, just to tie. The Twins will probably win 5 more games (.500) meaning the Angels have to win 7. I wouldn't worry about the Angels doing that. The Twins would need an epic collapse to miss the playoffs this year.

So you will be happy when the magic number is 1 or, even better, 0. I think that's true for all of us.

 

As far as algebra goes, the Angels need to win x+2 games, x being however many games the Twins win, just to tie. The Twins will probably win 5 more games (.500) meaning the Angels have to win 7. I wouldn't worry about the Angels doing that. The Twins would need an epic collapse to miss the playoffs this year.

You say that and its true though I don't entirely buy the epic collapse part.  it is true though that I will be on edge until we have at least clinched a tie.    Being 2 or 3 games up by Sunday would be great but not conclusive.     I've compared it to cribbage before.    I calculate odds of winning starting around 3rd street but what looks like a skunk in my favor can turn on one good hand and crib by my opponent while I get a dud.     In this case you can talk about records needed and likelihood but all it takes is two games where the Angels win and we lose and then  to have the same record in all the remaining games.   We have been swept 5 times.  Angels have swept series 6 times.   While that is still in play I am not counting anything.

You say that and its true though I don't entirely buy the epic collapse part.  it is true though that I will be on edge until we have at least clinched a tie.    Being 2 or 3 games up by Sunday would be great but not conclusive.     I've compared it to cribbage before.    I calculate odds of winning starting around 3rd street but what looks like a skunk in my favor can turn on one good hand and crib by my opponent while I get a dud.     In this case you can talk about records needed and likelihood but all it takes is two games where the Angels win and we lose and then  to have the same record in all the remaining games.   We have been swept 5 times.  Angels have swept series 6 times.   While that is still in play I am not counting anything.

Given their remaining schedule, it is entirely possible the Angels win 6 or 7 games, yes.

But still, this is on the Twins, and I think they know that. They should be able to make it even if just by 1 game.

The Twins want Seattle and Oakland to win all their games down the stretch and split their head to head games.

Gotta be a twit to vote on the poll. That leaves me out. 83.

Hardly deserving the playoffs with that record, but thems the rules.

Gotta be a twit to vote on the poll. That leaves me out. 83.

 

Hardly deserving the playoffs with that record, but thems the rules.

Only 4 teams got in when the 87 Twins won the WS.   Twins had the 9th best record.    06 Cards won their division with 83 wins and won the WS.   You probably know that but given the rules the Twins do deserve the playoffs if they are able to hold off the other teams.

Thanks for a good review Seth!!! I was wondering earlier this morning what the Angels schedule was.

 

The Twins need to stomp the Tigers tonight, score in the double digits, get their mojo back after getting their heads handed to them on a platter.  Win 3 of 4 in Detroit, 1 of 3 in Cleveland, then they can return home in control of their own destiny.

Great prediction!

Article is incorrect.  Twins do not have a 1.5 game lead in the American league central.  We have a 1.5 game lead for the 2nd wild card.

Texas the bigger threat right now.

I wish the Angels and Texas played each other but they don't.

Gotta hope the A's got some gamers on their team and don't fold, unlike the Tigers.

The problem with those playoff percentages is they have never been quality checked, are based on dubious assumptions, and they change daily which makes them wrong 161 game days out of the year.

We don't need percentages. The Angels/Rangers need 5-game swings to happen with 9/10 games left. This isn't likely. Is it 75% unlikely? Don't know, don't care. If someone tells you that they DO know, run away.

Whether or not we have these percentages, we are still evaluating the outcome day-to-day. The percentages do nothing for us. They don't help us and they are without meaning.