When the Twins Go Buying ... Who Are They Selling?

I am not dreaming of Scherzer or Snydergaard or any other stud.  When I look at the team acquisitions they choose lower ranked, upside arm - Odorizzi, Perez, Parker.  

 

But my real thought process is the analysis of what we will have next year. I am not willing to have a one year run and collapse again, so the questions about Cron, Gibson, Schoop...are essential to this equation.  Are we willing to go from bombers to good batters?  Will Kiriloff at 1B, Arraez at 2B be okay after Cron and Schoop have lit things up?

 

In the rotation I have already got Pineda gone (and even replaced in the rotation this year) but Odorizzi has been our clear number 2.  Gibson has stepped back and could be gone.  Perez, we hope, has found magic that will keep him going.  But that is three SP for next year and who replaces them?  In our minor only Graterol looks like he has a chance so if we do not acquire another starter the rotation for 2020 looks weak.

The BP has some very replaceable arms and none in the minors.  

 

So who do I trade?  If I am going for front line talent I trade Lewis or Arreaz.  If it is just prospects then everyone but Lewis, Kiriloff, Graterol, and the pitcher we have the most confidence in with the lower minors.

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Cron is not a free agent until 2021 so Schoop is the only position player in question.

They will shed $40M between Schoop / Reed / Castro / Hughes Santana and Morrison. That allows for them to easily retain Odorizzi and/or Gibson. Best case scenario, retain one of Odorizzi / Gibson and sign a front of the rotation FA.  We are waaaaay more attractive to a FA pitcher now.  They also have Mejia and a few prospects (Stewart / Gonsalves / Smeltzer) that can fill Pineda’s departure.

Of course, we have quite a few guys that will get bumps next year but revenue should also be up given the improved product and excitement around this team.

Cron is not a free agent until 2021 so Schoop is the only position player in question.

 

They will shed $40M between Schoop / Reed / Castro / Hughes Santana and Morrison. That allows for them to easily retain Odorizzi and/or Gibson. Best case scenario, retain one of Odorizzi / Gibson and sign a front of the rotation FA.  We are waaaaay more attractive to a FA pitcher now.  They also have Mejia and a few prospects (Stewart / Gonsalves / Smeltzer) that can fill Pineda’s departure.

 

Of course, we have quite a few guys that will get bumps next year but revenue should also be up given the improved product and excitement around this team.

I appreciate your update, but would not expect much from the list of prospect pitchers.  I had higher hopes for them two years ago, but not now.  However, I do think Pineda needs to be gone and it will not take an impact pitcher to do it. 

I keep coming back to Toronto when looking at trades.  Stroman has already been mentioned, but I'd also be pretty interested in Ken Giles.  He's in the same place as Pressly was last year in terms of service time, but will be a little more costly in arbitration so likely would command a slightly lesser prospect package.

We know that Toronto is looking to build around Vladito with guys in a similar service class, so basically guys that will be ready by next year.

The AA/AAA depth right now looks better than last year, and there are a bunch of guys that could easily be considered redundant while still being interesting in a trade.  From a quick perusal of my list:  Arraez, Gordon, Alcala, Raley, Smeltzer, Wade, Rooker, Blankenhorn (and maybe Cave too).  They could easily take a couple of those guys off the table if they want to work them into their 2020 plans and still be able to present an excellent prospect package to Toronto.

FWIW, Scherzer's deal does NOT contain any no-trade protection -- but he will gain full no-trade rights as a 10-and-5 player at the end of the 2019 season.

 

So if they want to trade him, there might be some impetus to get a deal done during the 2019 season.

In a contending year, they can't make the deal too soon

Honestly, I wouldn’t be suprised if the FO office trades Cron and all of Schoop/Gibson/Pineda/Castro walk next offseason (keeping only Cruz and Gonzalez). While this could very well have it’s drawbacks, having a rotation of Berrios, Graterol, Odorizzi, Perez, and possibly Stroman definitely wouldn’t be one of them.

However, when it comes to the lineup, having Arraez, Marwin, etc hold down the fort at 1B/2B until Lewis and Kirilloff arrive does seem pretty risky to me, especially if we still plan on competing for a WS in 2020. Then again, depending on where Lewis and Kirilloff end their 2019 seasons (hopefully Rochester, maybe Target Field for AK) and how well they perform, we may not even have to worry about that, or at least not for very long. And since it seems like Buxton, Sano, Polanco, Kepler, Odorizzi, Perez, and Garver are all conveniently breaking out at the same time after years of scuffling, we may not even need all our veterans next year.

Maybe that is similar to what Cleveland thought.   Cron is staying. He and Rocco go way back. Plus he is better than we thought and some of us were high on him right after the deal. I think we extend Rosie and Buck and Cron and try to get Berrios for 5. Extend Odo. Sano too. 

The Twins need to add to the top if their rotation.

The Twins need to add to the top of their bullpen.

No one should be untouchable.

Totally agree. Because its about winning, not how good the organization looks on paper. 

Isn't Graterol getting shut down? One less bargaining chip...

Other than Pineda, who would be unneeded if we picked up another starter (and who I don't trust in the pen), who?

 

Pineda makes sense if they picked up Stroman and none of the other starters are hurt, but I don't think this FO is going to sell pieces at the deadline when the team continues to look like a team that can go deep into the playoffs.

The old twins never negotiated contracts midseason. I'd look to extend some guys. But if an nl contender wanted to trade for Castro? If we could get a King's ransom for Odo or Gibby? If we wanted to bring up Kiriloff or roll with Arraez and teams wanted Sano or Schoop more than they wanted Dozier but less than Machado? If we're concerned Cruz's wrist will linger and have doubts about picking up his option, but teams are calling? Right now, it appears that we don't need everyone in order to win. We traded Pressley last year even though we needed him. And Garcia the year before. I think we'll trade prospects to upgrade the pen. I think we'll look to add starters with control and shed a starter(s) who are likely to walk while their value is high. Again, not advocating for a limited sell, just think it's very possible.

If the Twins trade for Grienke the front office should be fired. Huge contract, declining velocity and gets lit up by the good hitting teams (Dodgers). At least with MadBum he's rebounded this year and isn't in his twilight years yet.

FYI, I think that group is only about $30 mil this year.

Reed 8.5 / Hughes 5,950 / Morrison 1M / Santana 1M so 16,450,000 from players they have cut.

Catro 8.0M / Pineda 8.0M and Pineda 7.5M = 39.95M

I appreciate your update, but would not expect much from the list of prospect pitchers.  I had higher hopes for them two years ago, but not now.  However, I do think Pineda needs to be gone and it will not take an impact pitcher to do it. 

I am prioritizing a front of the rotation FA starting Pitcher.  Very rough estimate … That addition and the increases due current players (contractually & arbitration) will be around $40M. Therefore, the retention of / Odorizzi / Schoop and a fifth starter will have to come from an increase in payroll. (rough estimate $35M).

We can’t have it all so what is the best allocation of resources.  I think the addition of a Bumgardner or Cole makes for a much better playoff team.  The difference of Schoop vs Arraez or Gordon is probably 12M and the difference. That money is better spent in a another starter or retaining both Gibson and Odorizzi as opposed to keeping just one, IMO.  The same could be said for the difference between one of our prospects vs a free agent firth starter.

He's had 10 good starts this year, and one stinker. That stinker was Opening Day. By good starts, I mean 6 or more innings with 3 or fewer earned runs; 8 of the starts have been better than this minimum. Season-long, opposing batters have an OPS under .600 against him, versus a league OPS above .730. He strikes out plenty of guys, and walks hardly any. He goes out there every fifth day, just like a young pup.

 

I really don't know what standard you are holding pitchers to.

 

Sure he's expensive and I'm not completely sure we should go after him for this plus 2 more years. But as 2.5 year gambles at $35M per year go, he remains a pretty good one.

If you trade for an ace that is being paid ace like money you better be sure he will continue to be an ace. Look at the advanced numbers for Grienke, his swinging strike percentage is below 10%. Come playoff time against the big dogs he better be able to induce some swinging strikes. About every time he plays the Dodgers he gets blown up. You think he is going to fare better against the Yankees or the Astros?