Wheeler’s Gone, But Bumgarner Would Give the Twins Plenty to Work With

We went from cautiously hopeful to having our backs up against the wall pretty quickly this offseason.

Wheeler was the better get. We were willing to go 5/100 on him. I see madbum going 4/90. We won't get him as my guess is we offer somewhere along the lines of 4/77 based on what we offered Wheeler.

 

We have an org that wants to look good but isn't willing to do what it actually takes to get these kind of pieces. I understand that Wheeler wanted to pitch close to Jersey. But being 18mil apart on the offers isn't even close tbh. We will soon be kicking the tires on Roark and Tehran is what I see.

Get it done! The dude is a workhorse.

This will be the last story I read about someone that we might sign, or that we have interest in. We went through the exact same thing at last seasons trade deadline,and as far as starters go we did absolutely nothing. This looks like a replay as we talk,and talk,and talk some more about how we need starting pitching. While we talk other teams actually go out and get the deals done. I will always love the Twins,but I have NO confidence at all that our front office will sign a meaningful starter. 

You guys are correct. The Twins are a landing spot for FA's that don't have a ton of interest from anyone else. If we have to bid against someone else, or go above what we deem as fair value for a player, count them out. 

 

Look at it this way. When Bumgarner signs somewhere at least we will get to hear the Twins are "IN" on Strasburg and Cole for a couple weeks before they sign with one of the big boys. LOL

I don't see Bumgarner getting less than 5 years at this point. Too many teams with money chasing a SP. 

 

Angels, Padres, Yankees, White Sox, Dodgers and Nationals are all actively pursuing one of Cole and Strassburg. There will be three losers who will go after MadBum. If the Twins want him, they will need to make a big offer soon.

  I love Madison Bumgarner.  He's an old school starting pitcher.  His toughness would be good for other pitchers.  HIs numbers away from pitcher-friendly park in SF scare me a little.  I'm always cautious with guys coming from NL to AL and I'm nervous about the length it would take to get him.  Also, I would just be surprised if a guy of his stature comes to Minnesota.

 

 

I don't see Bumgarner getting less than 5 years at this point. Too many teams with money chasing a SP. 

 

Angels, Padres, Yankees, White Sox, Dodgers and Nationals are all actively pursuing one of Cole and Strassburg. There will be three losers who will go after MadBum. If the Twins want him, they will need to make a big offer soon.

The Reds are going after Madbum as well. And Kuechel. 

I haven't read a single "but what about the draft pick" post this year.

 

Wheeler was the better get. We were willing to go 5/100 on him. I see madbum going 4/90. We won't get him as my guess is we offer somewhere along the lines of 4/77 based on what we offered Wheeler.

 

We have an org that wants to look good but isn't willing to do what it actually takes to get these kind of pieces. I understand that Wheeler wanted to pitch close to Jersey. But being 18mil apart on the offers isn't even close tbh. We will soon be kicking the tires on Roark and Tehran is what I see.

Do you work for the Twins?

 

Otherwise I don't see how you could possibly know both what they offered to Wheeler or have on the table right now. Not to mention their motivation.

 

Anything reported about contract negotiations is based on hearsay or rumors. Unless the reporter literally saw the offer, it should be taken with a grain of salt.

There are no less than 12-13 teams in on Keuchel, Bumgarner and Ryu. There are likely a few less in on Cole and Strasburg. 5 guys that a dozen or more teams want and desire. That means the others will get to divide the likes of Wood, Pineda, Tehran, Miley, Porcello and Roark.

 

I can see Falvine at the press conference trying to pass off Porcello as frontline pitching at this point in his career......

 

The big drawback of MadBum that isn't being discussed enough is his home road splits. He's a legitimate number 1 when pitching at home with a 2.93 ERA and held opponents to a .213 batting average. He had a 1.10 HR/9 at home as well. On the road he pitched to a 5.29 ERA allowing a .286 average and a 1.59 HR/9.

 

San Francisco is easily one of the best places to pitch in the MLB because of the dimensions on that park. The Twins outfield defense is elite with Buxton in CF but I'd be seriously worried about the balls that leave the stadium. 

 

Steamer has him projected for an ERA over 4.50 and I don't think that's an unfair prediction under the assumption he's on a new team in 2020. He's a good pitcher who will be a workhorse. He has an average exit velo in the 14th percentile and hard hit % in the 10th percentile who strikes out less than 9 batters per 9. 

 

In my opinion, giving MadBum $20 million per year for any length would be a panic move and will set you up for disappointment if you're expecting an ace.

When I read your comments TTKiller, I get a bit down and begin hoping that the Twins do not sign Baumgarner.  Then when I think of the fact he would be moving from the NL to the AL, I get a real pain in the gut.  

 

But if we don't get either of the big 2, or Wheeler or Baumgarner, who fills out those remaining three spots?  Hopefully, they are working now to get Pineda under contract.  I could see him picking up where he left off before the suspension.  That was good, very good.  So who else is there?

 

Are the Twins having discussions with Teams A, B and C about trading for a very good young starter?  Discussions that won't get into high gear until the big 4 are gone.  Someone with several years control remaining.  Someone who could slide into a top 3 spot in the rotation with Berrios and Odorizzi.  Then do they roll the dice and sign one of the reclamation projects, someone who once was very good but is now a long shot, someone none of us will be happy with?  If he would return to anything close to what he was, great.  If not, I have no problem with the 5th starter being the winner of a Thorpe, Smelzer, Dobnak or Graterol battle in spring training.

 

No matter how much money they offer any of these top 5, the fact is there is a good chance we don't get them.  After all there are more than 5 teams after these same 5 guys and all are being encouraged to throw tons of money at 'em.  And as we learned yesterday, there are many reasons why the Twins are the longest of shots to get some of these guys...maybe all of them.  So signing one of these guys may have been Plan B all along.  Its just that they have to play it out before moving on to what just may have been Plan A.  

It looks like trading for a starting pitcher or 2 (if that's what the front office is targeting) might be the best route from a value standpoint. What if Jose and Odo end up being the only veteran starters? Is it possible the Twins Brass thinks it can fill out a viable rotation with Dobnak, Smeltzer, Thorpe, Littel, Vallimont, Sammons, Sands, Balazovic if it has to? How about Josh Lindblom who has gone 35-7 over 2 years in Korea and wants to come back to MLB at age 32, worth a look?

 

It's hard to sign a free agent who would rather play somewhere else for whatever reasons regardless of money.

 

Can we resign A.J. Pierzynski again and trade him for some young pitchers?

Wheeler was the better get. We were willing to go 5/100 on him. I see madbum going 4/90. We won't get him as my guess is we offer somewhere along the lines of 4/77 based on what we offered Wheeler.

 

We have an org that wants to look good but isn't willing to do what it actually takes to get these kind of pieces. I understand that Wheeler wanted to pitch close to Jersey. But being 18mil apart on the offers isn't even close tbh. We will soon be kicking the tires on Roark and Tehran is what I see.

We have to factor Wheeler’s desires and outlook into that though. His wife is from Philly. Had the FO offered the same extra 18, I truly think it wouldn’t have made a difference. Not because “No one” wants to play in MN or because “we” are too cheap, but because these players are human beings with there own wishes and desires often independent of baseball.

 

Reed signed with MN because in large part of his wife being from the Midwest and MN was close to home for her (and before any one says anything about performance. that point is strictly about choosing a location).

 

There a a lot of good schools my son could probably pitch at in college, but most of them he doesn’t like or isn’t interested in for various reasons (he’d really like to stay close to home in GA). MLB players aren’t all that different. Unless an organization throws obscene money at them, players are going to follow their own hearts and desires first and foremost.

With Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg seemingly out of the picture (not that they were ever in it), Bumgarner may be the Twins last chance, as Ryu seems unlikely to land in Minnesota.

 

Why is Ryu unlikely to land in Minnesota?

 

Not asking because I have a strong conviction otherwise, but curious what your thinking is.

 

There has long been a perception that most Asian-born players prefer to play on the coasts, particularly the west coast, if they have a choice about where to play. Presumably this perception started from real examples of players feeling this way, but it seems like it gets repeated in many different cases and I wonder how true it really is across the board.

 

On the other hand, the Dodgers seem to prioritize retaining their own free agents and to make it happen when they want to, so if they like the match with Ryu then yes, I'd guess that any other team is at a disadvantage.

If we can’t get any of the top starters and I’m the Twins FO I would resign Pineda, trade for at least a #3 starter, and sign a lesser starter (preferably one with some upside). That rotation should be good enough to get a playoff spot, and we can hope to trade for an ace mid season again.

If the Twins resign Pineda, the question becomes....does the other starting pitcher the Twins sign and Dobnak make a better combo than Gibson and Martin?

 

And with that other pitcher will we be able to afford a player like Donaldson For 3b?

I'm fine with Bumgarner: he's in the same tier as Wheeler and could do very well (and certainly has a lot of success on the big stages, which can't hurt). And having a LHP in the rotation wouldn't make me sad at all. I like him as a pitcher, and while the miles on the tires raises the risk some, it should also lower the price a bit. Prefer a 4 year deal on him but if it's the difference between signing him and not signing him, I would be willing to go the 5th year.

 

 

 

If the Twins resign Pineda, the question becomes....does the other starting pitcher the Twins sign and Dobnak make a better combo than Gibson and Martin?

And with that other pitcher will we be able to afford a player like Donaldson For 3b?

I've asked this in other posts but have not got a great answer.    Wheeler was the 3rd or 4th best pitcher on a third place team.     Twins had 3 guys that performed just as well last year.     His NL ERA, WHIP and SO/9 make me want him on the team but are no better than our guys.   Why is everyone thinking this guy is an ace or near ace if they don't also think that about Berrios, Odorizzi and Pineda?     Resign Pineda already.    

That's what happens when you enter an off season with only two pitchers. Failure to acquire a pitcher in previous years is haunting this team.

 

Free agency is the price you pay for those failures.

I’ll argue it’s mostly a failure to develop pitching prospects into MLB starters. Blowing draft picks on Jay and Stewart and failing to develop guys like Gonsalves and Romero are the key reasons why our rotation is barren. You obviously can’t expect them to all pan out, but the success rate is pretty low for the past few years.

 

I’ll argue it’s mostly a failure to develop pitching prospects into MLB starters. Blowing draft picks on Jay and Stewart and failing to develop guys like Gonsalves and Romero are the key reasons why our rotation is barren. You obviously can’t expect them to all pan out, but the success rate is pretty low for the past few years.

I agree with both your comments and Mike Sixel's. But we also haven't even reached the Winter Meetings yet.

 

It's waaay too early to judge the offseason.

If all we get is MadBum in terms of rotation help, I’ll be bummed (pun intended).

 

The guys isn’t what he used to be. He’s borderline washed.

 

He pitches in the NL. For all the Kyle Gibson haters, his ERA away from his pitcher friendly home ballpark since 2017 is over 4.20. Kyle Gibson has been blasted around here for a career ERA of around 4.5 while pitching in the AL. Be prepared for outrage around here.

 

Many seem to think our pitching coach will magically unlock something in this guy. Why do we think that? Aside from a month or two of Martin Perez pitching out of his mind, what has our pitching staff really accomplished? The Odorizzi “turnaround” isn’t as cut and dried as some would like it to be (he’s throwing harder but pitching fewer innings...chicken/egg). Our bullpen imploded. Berrios underperformed, IMO. We got absolutely shelled by any team with a competent offense. On top of that, Bumgarner is aging and has a ton of mileage in his arm.

 

On top of that, he doesn’t throw particularly hard from the left side. Target Field has a shirt porch in right. Not sure that’s a combination that’ll work out very well.

 

Would I hate the signing? No. But, I couldn’t disagree more with those who think this would be a huge difference maker. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Gibson get healthy and have a better year than Bumgarner next year.