What's the Plan with Tyler Austin?

When the Twins added C.J. Cron and essentially tabbed him as their 2019 first baseman, the move puzzled me. Not because of Cron so much as what his addition seemed to say about the lone incumbent at first base.

Is Tyler Austin being written out of Minnesota's plans already? Or is there still a way his very specific, very potent skills could be optimally put to use?Up to this point, Austin has shown some ability as a major-league hitter. Through his age 26-season, he owns a .758 OPS in 404 MLB plate appearances. This year between New York and Minnesota he slugged .480 in 268 PA; that's a higher mark than Eddie Rosario finished with, and barely below what Cron produced in a career year with Tampa.

In many ways, Austin looks like the prototypical "change of scenery special." He showed promise with the Yankees but couldn't differentiate himself in a system full of big power bats. Having acquired him in the Lance Lynn deal, the Twins found themselves with a prime opportunity to give Austin a prolonged look, with first base becoming vacant, but instead they chose to go with Cron – a similar if not redundant player.

Austin's solid overall production has been highly polarized in its concentration. Against right-handed pitchers he's been ineffective, with a .211/.259/.405 slash line and 39% K-rate. Against lefties he's been DOMINANT, at .272/.345/.592 and 32%. The way to best utilize such a player seems clear: partner him with a lefty swinger who can mash righties, and let Rocco Baldelli play the platoon game while also enjoying some great strategic pinch-hitting options.

Cron throws a wrench in that, swinging from the same side as Austin. In fact, given his neutral platoon splits and his success in a full-time role this year, it seems likely Cron will be penciled as the everyday starter at first.

This leaves only one path for Austin, who's out of options next spring and likely to land elsewhere if he doesn't make the roster: designated hitter. There is still opportunity there for the Twins to leverage Austin's strengths and deploy him impactfully.

They can't trust him as full-time DH. It'd be irresponsible to go with Austin as the full-time solution, given his ugly numbers against righties. But if you equip the team with a lefty bat that can frequently plug in at DH? Then we're cooking.

Theoretically, this can be accomplished with the existing setup. Roll with a bench of Mitch Garver, Ehire Adrianza, Willians Astudillo and Jake Cave, then rotate Cave (or Eddie Rosario) through the DH spot against righties. It'd be a good way to keep arguably your reigning two best hitters (Rosario and Cave) in the lineup regularly.

Another bench construction that would intrigue me, if Garver is deemed good to go at catcher, would be swapping out Astudillo (who has an option remaining) for outfielder LaMonte Wade, recently added to the 40-man roster. He'll be 25 on Opening Day, has ample experience at Triple-A, and would help balance out a roster short on patience and plate discipline. Wade has a .391 OBP in the minors and walks more than he strikes out against right-handers.

Alternatively, the Twins could seek out another lefty bat via trade or free agency to complement Austin as a DH/bench piece. It'd need to be someone with a bit of positional flexibility since the team surely isn't gonna carry three first basemen.

These are scenarios in which Minnesota could still roster Austin and maximize his value. But the simple reality may be that they just don't see the 27-year-old fitting into their plans. Cron's addition already hinted toward this (why not just skip him and set up the Austin platoon at first?) and the reported serious interest in Nelson Cruz would be another indicator. If the Twins sign Cruz, Austin's out – that feels like a safe assumption.

In fact, signing Cruz and essentially locking him in for 600 plate appearances at DH would all but eliminate any room for creative platoons or rotations, which strikes me as odd for a team that claims to be focused on sorting out existing assets and developing its core.

Giving up on Austin wouldn't necessarily be malpractice, given that he's so one-dimensional both offensively and defensively, and so very very strikeout-prone. But based on the pure slugging prowess he showed during his short time in Minnesota this year, and his proven ability to terrorize southpaws, he certainly seems worthy of a longer look.

For his part, Austin is undoubtedly tracking the front office's movements at the Winter Meetings as closely as any fan, knowing that the addition of Cruz would turn his grasp on a roster spot from precarious to perilous.

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Nick, 

I love ya but C'mon... we can't go around quoting splits based on 242 AB's vs. Righties and 125 AB's  vs. lefties over two seasons of sporadic playing time and make it mean something because it's the only data we have.

This is completely unfair to the player because everybody else gets to at least get closer to critical mass. 

I know you are trying to support him and I'm right there with ya with support for him myself but trying to salvage his value by turning him into a left handed specialist will only hasten his departure. 

Here's what you do with Tyler... You roster him and play him or you cut him because you have better options. And that is where my support comes in.

I'm not convinced that Cron is a better option than Austin and if Cron is a better option it has to be negligible because I really can't decide who is the better option. 

My gut says go with Austin because he makes the minimum and will make the minimum again next year while Cron's 4.8M will increase at the hand of the arbitration guy. And... And... Austin has 3 to 4 years of minor league experience playing OF which just might come in handy. 

But even as I say... I'd go with Austin... I want someone who can step in for him in case he proves me wrong.  

With that said... You can't let Austin stop you from signing Cruz. If the Twins sign Cruz... you'll have to let him go unless you make him the 4th OF'er and let him battle the other outfielders for playing time. 

If I'm Tyler Austin... I'm finding out where Rocco Baldelli is. I'm getting on a plane and handing him a nice professional prepared resume in person with 3 YEARS MINOR LEAGUE OUTFIELD EXPERIENCE capitalized and in BOLD font. 

Then I tell him that I will be in Georgia this off-season shagging 1 million fly balls every single day... complete with the proper footwork and throws to the cut off man and to all bases.

Then I'm showing up at spring training when the pitchers and catchers report just so he knows that I'm ready to go.

I'm seriously looking at Cron and Bour getting released and reading the writing on the wall. The ability to play OF will save his career. Along with the ability to hit balls into the upper deck. 

The homeruns are nice but a guy that K's 36% of the time and doesn't have a position in the field.....

He only played a few games in the outfield after 2015. Maybe the Yankees saw something when he did?

Maybe... I have never been to Trenton or Scranton to witness Austin in the OF myself. 

However, the path of least resistance in the Yankees organization was clearly 1B. 

It makes sense on paper to move a player from OF to 1B in their context. 

Leaving the questions:

1. How much was defense a part of that decision to 1B. (I sure wish the Twins would have gave him some OF starts in September). 

2. Was the Twins not playing him in the OF a clue to his ability or was it just the Twins being the Twins, locking players into static roles and not being able to deviate from it, like they have consistently done. 

3. Why didn't he win the Yankees 1B job. It wasn't like the Yankees had anyone holding it with both hands. 

Austin was traded on July 30th.  In the following 56 games he appeared in 35, including 12 starts at 1B and 21 at DH. He was in the minors for a week before Morrison went down and he was recalled.  So he appeared in about 70% of the games he was in the majors.  Molitor missed the chance to use him more, and he made some silly choices in those games, including starting Adrianza and Gimenez at 1B twice and Garver once with Austin out of the lineup.

So that one is on Molitor.

The Twins front office did well with signing the arbitration eligible Cron to a contract that is pretty much disposable at ST.  The more competition the better, and with the ousting of Grossman, there is room for both Cron and Austin in the lineup.   Austin can play RF as well.  He has 339 games (2841-1/3 innings) at the OF (mostly RF and mostly in the minors) with 11 cumulative errors and 30 assists.  For comparison's purpose Grossman in the minors played 726 OF games (6194 innings, mostly LF) with 22 errors and 40 assists.   Their gloves are comparable with Austin having a better arm.   I see him play OF considerably this ST...

Hmm...

 

Nelson Cruz (through age 26)

145 games, 478 PA, .231/.282/.385, OPS+ 72, 119K, 30BB, no defensive value

 

Tyler Austin (through age 26)

120 games, 404 PA, .232/.290/.469, OPS+ 100, 148K, 30BB, no defensive value

 

Cruz spent most of his age 27 season in the minors, but came up in August and was great for 31 games on the way to becoming the ongoing monster that now has 360 career HRs.

 

I'm not saying Austin is the second coming of Nelson Cruz, but those numbers put an interesting spin on the conversation for me. 

Hope that Austin does not get a 50-game suspension for being a Biogenesis client like Cruz did...

Can Austin be sent down to work on that swing? We are already a low OPS team, only way he gets 300+ ABs is if Sano and Cron are horrible.

Only if he clears waivers, he's out of options. Then, when you call him up, and try to send him down later in the year, he can be claimed. It's the issue with trading for guys with no options, that you aren't sure are good or not.

Only if he clears waivers, he's out of options. Then, when you call him up, and try to send him down later in the year, he can be claimed. It's the issue with trading for guys with no options, that you aren't sure are good or not.

He had options when they traded for him.  Molitor just sat him longer than he should have had...

He had options when they traded for him.  Molitor just sat him longer than he should have had...

Not really relevant now. He had one last year, and they weren't sending him down last year. Or am I misunderstanding something?