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Where Things Stand
We still won't know for a few more weeks what the exact salary figures will look like for Minnesota's arbitration-eligible players, but based on our estimates the current projected payroll stands at around $108 million. If you add the entirety of Byung Ho Park's posting fee, that number jumps to about $120 million.
The Twins entered the 2015 season with a payroll of $108.3 million, so depending on how you look at it, they presently stand either right around, or slightly ahead of, last year's benchmark. Either way, there's little reason to believe that Ryan does not have flexibility to add at this point, especially with spending continually rising across the league.
From everything we've heard, it sounds like his primary reluctance in the free agent arena has not been a strict matter of dollars, but rather giving out long-term commitments that could potentially clog the system's internal pipeline.
With the holiday lull coming to an end, we will see a fresh wave of activity across baseball over the coming weeks, in terms of signings and trades. Will the Twins take part in the action? Who might they be interested in that is still out there?
Free Agent Relievers
Many of the big names have come off the market over the past couple months, but numerous intriguing options remain.
The biggest fish left in the sea is probably Tyler Clippard, the 30-year-old right-hander with a very consistent track record that includes multiple stints as a closer. He seems likely to land a multi-year deal, which might rule him out for the Twins, who are more urgently seeking a left-hander anyway.
In that department, one name clearly stands out. Antonio Bastardo was the No. 1 free agent lefty reliever on the market in the Offseason Handbook and would be a tremendously impactful addition for the Twins bullpen, but he is said to be seeking a contract similar to the three-year, $18 million deal signed by Tony Sipp last month. It's difficult to envision Ryan wading into those waters, especially given the southpaw's frequent struggles with control. ESPN's Buster Olney reported this week that the Orioles and Mets have been in talks with Bastardo, who hasn't been publicly tied to the Twins.
With Ryan evidently targeting short-term deals – most likely one-year commitments – a veteran hurler in the second tier is going to be more in his wheelhouse. There are a lot of names that fit that category: Matt Thornton, Neal Cotts, Franklin Morales, Manny Parra, Randy Choate. These aren't the kinds of arms that will dramatically upgrade the relief corps, but they would certainly add a bit more assurance to the unit and wouldn't inhibit internal options long-term. I find it extremely likely that the Twins will end up adding one of the pitchers in that group, on something like a one-year, $3 million contract.
Injury Gamble?
Ryan has a history of success with reclamation projects, with one example being Jared Burton, who came to the team on a minor-league contract after battling shoulder problems and reemerged as a quality setup man in Minnesota.
Could Sean Marshall follow a similar path?
From 2010 through 2012, Marshall was one of the best left-handed relievers in the game, posting a 2.47 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 10.3 K/9 and 2.5 K/9 in 231 trips to the mound for the Reds and Cubs. Since the start of the 2013 season, however, he has totalled only 31 appearances, and he didn't pitch at all in 2015. Two shoulder operations and a litany of setbacks have cast serious doubt on his future.
Marshall told the Cincinnati Enquirer in September that he wants to keep playing and was toying with a new arm angle. He's obviously a long shot, but if he looks good in his throwing sessions, he would be a nice no-risk gamble with some upside much like Fernando Abad. If he can return anywhere close to his previous form, he'd be a big pick-up.
Storen Still Standing
I've been beating the Drew Storen drum since mid-September, at which point it was already apparent that the Nationals would be shopping the righty reliever, and that he might be available at a discount given his tumultuous second half.
Storen remains a National here in early January, but Jon Morosi of FOX Sports wrote this week that Washington is still trying to trade him. At this point in the offseason, one has to imagine that the asking price has dropped a bit.
He's still only 27, he has high-end ability, and he has only one year of team control remaining. He isn't left-handed, obviously, but would be a transformative acquisition for the bullpen in 2016. Can Ryan pull together a package that will get it done without hampering the big picture?
What About The Outfield?
The search continues for an additional outfielder. Right now the names in that mix are Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Oswaldo Arcia and Danny Santana. (Max Kepler could be added to that list, but I can't see him being a factor until midseason at least.)
That's a group with little built-up equity that could use some established veteran backing. Among the fourth outfielder types who could fill a Shane Robinson role are Johnny Gomes, Matt Joyce, Skip Schumaker, Chris Denorfia, David Lough and others. The challenge is in finding a player who could hold his own as a regular over an extended period but would not necessarily have an expectation of being a starter for the entire season.
Surely the Twins' hope is to have some combination of the aforementioned youngsters firmly entrenched by September.
Span Reunion?
We'll round out the outfield discussion with a familiar face. Denard Span remains mired in free agency despite very strong results over the last two years (.301/.358/.421), because he's coming off September hip surgery. The other day Span posted the following tweet, which seems to suggest that he's recovering pretty well:
https://twitter.com/thisisdspan/status/684047970493403136
The fact that the 31-year-old outfielder is campaigning on his own behalf here in January may indicate that he's not finding the kind of reception he's hoping for on the market. If he's open to taking a one-year deal to bolster his value, that might present an advantageous opportunity for the Twins. Obviously he has familiarity here, and his offensive skill set would be welcomed given the current lack of a prototypical leadoff type.
But it brings us back to the playing time equation. Can the Twins promise Span the role he wants without putting themselves in position to block a younger player who is ready to step in?
Who would you like to see the team pursue?
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