What's Going on With Kenta Maeda?

It’s been pointed out on the broadcast several times since Opening Day how Kenta Maeda just hasn’t looked “sharp”. He was certainly effective leading up to one of his worst starts of his career against Oakland while sporting a 3.07 ERA and 3.02 FIP paired with a near 10 K/9. That being said he just never really appeared to get on a dominant roll like we saw so many times in 2020. After seven earned runs in three innings, Maeda’s line tells the story of a different pitcher. His ERA rose to 6.11 with a 5.29 FIP and even xERA, his most positive indicator comes out to a 4.47. All of these indicators are far from what we expected to see this season.

It’s easy to blame one bad start for Maeda’s inflated stats but there are serious concerns in this young season for perhaps the most important pitcher on this struggling Twins roster.

Shaky Command:

As we know, Maeda isn’t succeeding by way of the 95 mph fastball. In 2020 he used pinpoint command of his pitches to place them exactly where he wanted to pick batters apart. That does not appear to be the case so far in 2021 however. His command of the strike zone appears to be failing him, as his pitches left over the heart of the plate has increased to 28% after posting a 23.9% mark in 2020.

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Unsurprisingly, hitters are batting .486 and slugging .886 off of these mistakes Maeda has made more often so far this year. He simply can’t afford to leave so many pitchers in a hitter’s wheelhouse with a 90-91 mph fastball. It would be different if his offspeed pitches were as otherworldly as they were in 2020, but unfortunately…

The Slider:

Maeda’s nasty slider and the Twins were a match made in heaven from the day they acquired him from the Dodgers. In 2019, FanGraphs gave the pitch a pitch value of 19.8, one of the best in all of baseball. In 2020 the pitch fell off tremendously to 6.7 but was still plenty for Maeda to dominate opposing hitters. So far in 2021 the pitch has a pitch value -5.1. Maeda’s signature pitch has gone from his calling card to allowing a .382 batting average and .735 slugging %. So what happened?

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It appears it all comes back to command for Maeda. He’s throwing his swing and miss pitch right down the middle as often as anyone in all of baseball. The end result is still a consistent whiff rate of almost 33% so far, but when contact is made, it’s loud. The league could have easily just scouted this flaw out after a year which would give a huge edge even to teams that didn’t see him in person in 2020.

The Change Up:

It’s possible many fans made the assumption that Maeda’s breakout was a result of the Twins overhauling his slider in 2020 but that wasn’t the case. Instead it was the best performance Maeda’s split change has had in his career. In 2020 the pitch had a career high value of 7.1, even higher than his slider. So far this year however the pitch has turned in a -1 rating and Maeda has dropped his usage of the dominant pitch from almost 30% to around 21%. What gives?

For starters it’s worth noting that 2020 was the first year Maeda truly featured the pitch and baseball could have adjusted. This may be the reason the pitch has gone from a 45% whiff rate in 2020 to a 23.5% mark so far in 2021. That being said, the .300 BA allowed isn’t backed up by the .234 xBA on the pitch, nor is the .400 slugging % mirrored by the .305 xSLG. It’s also worth noting that both his vertical and horizontal break on the pitch have improved from 2020 levels so far. The change up’s struggles could be a result of sequencing given the failures of his slider or it could just be bad luck. Either way, it’d be nice to see Maeda bump the usage of the pitch back up.

So where do we go from here? It’s probably likely Maeda isn’t the same pitcher over 162 as he was over 60 but the version we’ve seen so far has been a big disappointment. Maeda had the look of his 2020 self to begin Spring Training which should be reassuring that his dominance didn’t simply disappear at the turn of the year.

There are adjustments for the 33 year old right hander to make. For all of the issues pitchers run into in their mid 30s, command would be a surprising one to drag Maeda down long term. For now it appears Maeda may just be missing some feel or possibly has a small tweak to make. I’d bet on Maeda righting the ship in the near future and returning to some form of dominance. Afterall, something has to go the Twins way sometime right?

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