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  • What Will the Twins do with Miguel Sanó?


    Andrew Mahlke

    We all know that Miguel Sanó can be one of the best hitters in baseball at times. He can also be one of the worst hitters in baseball at times. Sanó’s inconsistency is giving the Twins a big question heading into 2022? What will they do with Miguel Sanó?

    Image courtesy of Nick Wosika, USA Today

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    In the first half of the 2021 season, Sanó hit .196/.279/.426 (.705) while hitting 15 home runs, but he struck out 36 percent of the time. His 36% strikeout rate in the first half was the third highest in all of MLB (min. 200 plate appearances).

    Sanó’s second half was much better offensively, as he hit .250/.343/.504 (.847) with 15 home runs once again. His hard hit rate went up from 50 percent to 60 percent, so he was hitting the ball hard more consistently.

    Bombs Away
    When Sanó makes contact, he makes some of the hardest contact in the league. Since debuting in 2015, Sanó has the sixth highest average exit velocity among all MLB hitters, behind only Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Nelson Cruz, Fernando Tatis Jr., and David Ortiz. In 2021, he was in the 99th percentile of hard hit rate and the 97th percentile of average exit velocity. He was also in the 97th percentile of all hitters in barrel %, a metric used to show how consistently a player can square the ball up in the air. Sanó has the 11th most home runs in Twins history and he will be in at least ninth after the 2022 season. He has also hit five of the ten longest home runs for the Twins in the statcast era (2015-present), including this 495 foot blast at Fenway Park in 2021.

    Not all Rainbows and Sunshine
    However, Sanó’s limiting factor is that he does not exactly make the most consistent contact. In the history of the Minnesota Twins, Sanó’s career 36.5 percent strikeout rate is the highest in Twins history (min. 1000 PA). Since 2000, among all MLB hitters with at least 1000 plate appearances, Sanó has the third highest strikeout rate behind Keon Broxton and Joey Gallo.

    Sanó is also not a viable defender at first base. In 2021, Sanó was worth -5 Defensive Runs Saved and was last among all first basemen in UZR, a metric that measures a player’s defensive worth while taking their range into account.

    Options Going Forward
    According to Spotrac, Sanó is due to make $9.25 million in 2022. After 2022, the Twins have a club option of $14 million on Sanó in 2023, which means that the Twins can decide if they want to keep Sanó in 2023 for $14 million. If they don’t pick up the option, Sanó will be a free agent. What will the Twins do with Sanó? Here are three options:

    Option One: Trade Sanó before the 2022 season
    The first option the Twins have is that they could forgo paying Sanó $9.25MM in 2022 and trade him. In return, the Twins could receive some young starting pitching so they can get some value out of Sanó if they choose to punt in 2022. The Twins could receive some young pitching in return and set up for success in 2023 and 2024.

    Option Two: Pick up the $14 million option
    If Sanó has an outstanding 2022 season, the Twins could choose to exercise his $14 million option and keep him on the team through 2023. If Sanó has another season like he did in 2019, in which he had a .923 OPS and 34 home runs, the Twins should pick up the option. Sanó has always had the potential to put together a great season and he has shown flashes of excellence during his seven year tenure with the Twins.

    Option Three: Let Sanó play the 2022 season and don’t pick up the option
    In my opinion, this is the most likely option for the Twins. If Sanó has another season like we are used to seeing from him, the Twins will not pick up his option and let him become a free agent. Sanó has never posted a WAR above 3 in a season and at times can be a major offensive liability.

    The Twins have bigger holes on their roster than first base as Alex Kirilloff has shown he can be a good option there. In a rookie season filled with bad luck, Kirilloff still had an OPS just 56 points lower than Sanó and with more batted ball luck Kirilloff could likely be a more consistent hitter and a better option than Sanó. Additionally, Kirilloff was better defensively at first base than Sanó in 2021. Here are a few statistics that show Kirilloff’s defensive superiority to Sanó:

                                 

    Outs Above Average

              Defensive Runs Saved

              Ultimate Zone Rating

    Kirilloff

                   2

                                  1

                              1.4

    Sanó

                  -6

                                -5

                            -6.4

     

    In a limited sample, Kirilloff has been a better defensive first baseman than Sanó and shows a lot of promise with the bat. Kirilloff is the Twins first baseman of the future and the Twins should not spend $14 million on Sanó in 2023 if Kirilloff is a better option than he is.

    Final Thoughts
    2022 looks to be an extremely important year in Miguel Sanó’s career and barring a more consistent year at the plate, it could definitely be Sanó’s last year as a member of the Minnesota Twins.

    What do you think the Twins should do with Miguel Sanó? What does Sanó need to show the Twins in order for them to exercise his 2023 option? How does Sanó compare to Kirilloff? Let me know what you think in the comments!

    Thank you for reading, and Go Twins!

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    I actually find it funny how there is talk of Sano losing weight, getting into better shape and figuring things out to become a better hitter is all of the sudden going to happen. The guy has been in the bigs 7 years and hasn't done any of that yet. Why is 2022 going to be the magical season when he does? Sano is going to be Sano. If Cruz couldn't get him to become a better player and quit over-swinging, to hit to all fields, to lay off the crap pitches off the plate and shorten his swing when he gets 2 strikes then quite frankly I doubt it is ever going to happen. He's had 7 years with Coaches and other good players to get in his head and straighten out his terrible approach at the plate and if we are seeing the results of that to this point then further improvement isn't there. I'd cut and run with the first good/reasonable offer in trade, if it happens. If not, he can walk at the end of the season.

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    Sano has been an enigma for quite some time.  He can hit 30-35 homers every year and still be the Twins least valuable player. His 36% strikeout rate is outrageous.  Strikeouts produce nothing.  His all or nothing swing is great when he sends one into the stands.  But way too often he strikes out with runners on producing nothing.  Defensively he produces almost nothing.  Personally it doesn't bother me if they keep him.  But I would be shocked if they picked up his $14 mil option.  The Twins normally don't spend that much.  

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    16 minutes ago, Einheri said:

    Minor league pitching, sure.  Something like for Cruz,

    Sorry.  I assumed you meant major league pitching and we all know what happens when we assume.  Pitching would be great but I would be happy with any return regardless of position.  An up the middle defender would be good too.

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    15 hours ago, bean5302 said:

    So you think he'll have no trade value, but he'll totally be worth extending?

    Aside from that, I'm not sure where you get durable and athletic? Sano barely qualified for the batting title last year for the very first time in his entire career, but still missed nearly 30 games during the season. It was the first time in his career he's played more than 116 games.  In regard to athleticism, that left him some years ago. He's now a well below average speed runner and his quickness and range departed several years ago. Even his glove has turned to stone as he put together an unimaginably poor defensive effort in 2021. 

    the word "if" is conditional, if one condition exists produces one reaction if it doesn't, it produces a different one

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    9 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

    Sorry.  I assumed you meant major league pitching and we all know what happens when we assume.  Pitching would be great but I would be happy with any return regardless of position.  An up the middle defender would be good too.

    It's built into your name to expect that:  Major-League Ready.  ?

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    I think Sanó will be the team’s principal DH. Garver and Donaldson figure in as well as perhaps others. Kirilloff should be penciled in to start a majority of games at first, with some left or right field duty. When AK is in the outfield, Miggy would be the second choice at first. 
     

    With an expiring contract, Sanó would be considered by many contenders at the trade deadline, if the Twins are not in the hunt. I don’t see the point in moving him now. 

    One more point, I think Sanó works just as hard on his game as the next guy. He is a big man, but not sloppy out of shape. Getting sleeker might help, as it did for Abreu in Chicago, but Sano’s big league career has been limited most by inability to make contact and secondly by being a defensive liability. 
     

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    25 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

    You mean like if Miguel Sano was worth extending then he would also have trade value...

    To state my original text " he seemed to have an easier swing towards the end of the season which I'd like to see if it carries over to this season and get into even better shape , I'd even consider to extend him because he's so strong, durable and athletic." That is the future condition if he maintains that swing.

    The present fact is his trade worth is around zero. If he maintains that easy swing that he showed at the end of the season and be consistent, he'd be very valuable to the Twins. IMO we need to let him prove himself by the deadline if he can't then we can consider to trade him.

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    When I said sano could hit better if he did what he did in the second half of the season. I don't think he will ever be a Cruz. But if he would hit .240 to .250 range  he would then be trade bait. The best thing that could happen is the dh in the other league. I'm like everyone else. I would like him gone. His contract calls for 14 million next year. That's one good pitcher.

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    2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

    To state my original text " he seemed to have an easier swing towards the end of the season which I'd like to see if it carries over to this season and get into even better shape , I'd even consider to extend him because he's so strong, durable and athletic." That is the future condition if he maintains that swing.

    The present fact is his trade worth is around zero. If he maintains that easy swing that he showed at the end of the season and be consistent, he'd be very valuable to the Twins. IMO we need to let him prove himself by the deadline if he can't then we can consider to trade him.

    I think I misunderstood the intention of your original response. I read it as don't trade Sano even at the deadline when it seems you meant, don't trade him before he has an opportunity to build some value during the regular season because you're convinced his value is currently nil so the Twins lose nothing by holding/waiting.

    I'd agree with the expectation his value is low; however, I don't know for sure that's the case. If the CBA includes a full time DH in the NL, Sano could have more significant value than expected after his hot finish to the season. I'd rather the Twins trade him now if they can get something for him rather than risk him having another horrible start to the year. Sano was rocking a .196/.279/.426 triple slash for a .705 OPS at the All Star Break last year. That's good for about an OPS+ or wRC+ of 85-ish. Now that is truly no value.

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    Like someone said previously, we have this discussion every year.  And every year, we hope he gets better only to be disappointed again and again.  We should have traded him years ago when he at least had some trade value.  He had none now.  He is a disaster in the field.  He is a strike out machine.  Trading him in the past would have prevented a lot of heartburn.  Oh well.

    Certainly, we should still trade him if we can find a sucker.  I'd even take a Subway coupon if that's all you can get. 

       

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    There are plenty of guys that hit 25 homers strike out a ton and have no defensive position. This means Sano has limited trade value and there is no way they are picking up a $14 million option.  As fans we are always trying to put lipstick on a pig. It’s unfortunate but this was just a big lost opportunity for Sano and the Twins. 

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    You aren't getting much, if anything, by trading him away right now so use him at DH and 1B this year. If he plays well, trade him or keep him and exercise his option. If he's bad/mediocre, decline his option and move on. Pretty straightforward imo.

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    Sano finished out well last year, but we have all seen the peaks and valleys and those valleys are deep and lush. Sano works hard and has passion for the game and his team. He is in a prove it year and it would be unwise to do anything right now except see how he responds. If he breaks out the team is covered nicely with the option. If he tanks well it's just one year. Somewhere in between without major growth, then I would try to move him at the deadline.

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    Sano, Kirilloff, Donaldson, Arraez, Garver, Miranda, Rooker - it's pretty crowded at DH and the corner infield spots. The DH in the NL may create an interest in Sano and there should certainly be some conversations taking place, but Sano is likely to be at first base on Opening Day. That is, he will be if a CBA gets signed.

    It sure seems like just yesterday the Twins were excited by a power hitting shortstop who might need to move to third base, but would crush home runs and hit for average. Now it's down to the last time or one more chance for the big guy. I'm still hopeful.

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    7 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

    Sano, Kirilloff, Donaldson, Arraez, Garver, Miranda, Rooker - it's pretty crowded at DH and the corner infield spots. The DH in the NL may create an interest in Sano and there should certainly be some conversations taking place, but Sano is likely to be at first base on Opening Day. That is, he will be if a CBA gets signed.

    It sure seems like just yesterday the Twins were excited by a power hitting shortstop who might need to move to third base, but would crush home runs and hit for average. Now it's down to the last time or one more chance for the big guy. I'm still hopeful.

    I was critical of Sano when that not a popular position so I am not a supporter.  However, his numbers are above average so it's not like he is a total slug some make him out to be.  Career PAs 2778 with a wRC+ of 118 and an OPS of 819.  Roasrio has 3242 PAs with a wRC+ of 105 and an OPS of 782.  

    Having said this, my hope for Sano and his future is that he comes to camp in shape, has a great 1st half, and is traded for something of value at the deadline.

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