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  • What To Make Of Kennys Vargas

    Tom Froemming

    By Tom Froemming

    The actions (or lack there of) from the Twins' front office appear to have thrust Kennys Vargas into a position to be the team's designated hitter. While Twins fans are familiar with Vargas after seeing him in cameos the past three seasons, expectations are varied.

    And for good reason. We've seen Vargas look like a force worthy of an everyday role, and we've seen him struggle to the point it's fair to wonder if he is slapped with the dreaded Quad-A hitter label at some point.

    Image courtesy of Anthony Gruppuso, USA Today

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    Byungho Park is still around, but having been removed from the 40-man roster, his path to playing time is obstructed. Potential free agent targets Jose Bautista (back with Toronto), Mike Napoli (back with Texas) and Chris Carter (signed with the Yankees) are off the market, leaving the likes of Pedro Alvarez, Adam Lind and Justin Morneau among the top available bats.

    In other words, it appears likely Vargas will get another opportunity to prove himself. There are some reasons to be optimistic.

    He's already been pretty good

    Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com recently shared some impressive numbers from last season, highlighting Vargas' exit velocity, launch angle and fly-ball rate. That piece is well worth your time, but even when you take his entire body of work from the past three seasons into account it's easy to see why the club would trust Vargas with DH duties.

    Vargas has compiled roughly a full season's worth of playing time (595 PAs over 158 games) and has a .251/.309/.434 line with 24 HR and 75 RBI. That's not going to win him a Silver Slugger or anything like that, but even if he doesn't improve at all you could do worse than a guy with a career 103 OPS+ as your DH.

    It's a good bet he'll continue to improve his strikezone control

    Vargas entered 2016 with 21 carer walks over 335 PAs in the majors. Last season, he surpassed that total in just over half as many PAs (24 BB in 177 PAs). Given his minor league track record, I don't think that was a fluke.

    MLB: 29.2 K%, 7.6 BB%

    AAA: 23.2 K%, 16.6 BB%

    AA: 18.0 K%, 12.4 BB%

    For what it's worth, Vargas' 66 walks tied him for second most in the International League last year. I think it's a safe to believe Vargas could maintain a walk rate in the double digits, which is something only 28% of qualified hitters could accomplish last season.

    Repeating his 2016 walk rate of 13.6% would put him into elite company, as that's only a shade behind Joe Mauer's. Just a dozen qualified hitters drew walks more frequently than that last year.

    I'm not as confident Vargas will get his strikeouts under control, but it's certainly possible. If he can keep up the walks and slug some more homers, however, it's not really gonna matter.

    Speaking of home runs, Vargas also had an uptick in longballs last season. His homer rate (HR every 15.2 ABs) was almost on par with Brian Dozier's (14.6 AB/HR).

    He had a better winter than it appears at first glance

    Some people have wondered if Vargas' poor numbers in winter ball clluld be a huge red flag. Vargas posted an ugly .179/.329/.316 line in winter ball. While that's not the way he wanted to follow up his MVP performance from the previous season, there are some silver linings.

    The Puerto Rican winter league is extremely pitcher friendly. Only three hitters posted an OPS north of .800 (former Twins farmhand Danny Ortiz led the league with an .813 OPS). And while Vargas' slash line looks bad, he still led the league in walks (24), was second in RBIs (18) and third in home runs (3).

    Again, it was certainly a disappointing performance, but he was far from a complete disaster.

    So, what do you think? Is this the year Vargas establishes himself or will he be back in Rochester before we know it?

    Follow Tom Froemming on Twitter: TFTwins

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    Featured Comments

    Vanimal46

    Vanimal46 28,724

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    He was on a tear in July and then inexplicably stopped playing with any regularity for all of August.

    He stopped playing when Plouffe came back from injury, and when he cooled off from his hot streak. At that point last season, could Vargas get the nod over Plouffe? Sure, the season was already over. He went back to AAA to get every day at-bats to continue his growth. When he came back up in September he played every day, and continued to struggle. 

    I'm just not that bothered by not giving him every day at-bats over a 2 week period, and I don't think they did him wrong by sending him back down to AAA at that time. 

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    Thrylos

    Thrylos 8,325

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

     

    Vargas has compiled roughly a full season's worth of playing time (595 PAs over 158 games) and has a .251/.309/.434 line with 24 HR and 75 RBI. That's not going to win him a Silver Slugger or anything like that, but even if he doesn't improve at all you could do worse than a guy with a career 103 OPS+ as your DH.

     

    I really like Vargas.   Matter of fact in 2014, I had him ranked as the Twins' 7th best prospect, probably the highest ranking that he has gotten (and that was when the system was much better.)

     

    That said.  I agree with the above, but really Vargas' MLB career needs  to be described with 2 slash lines, instead of one:

     

    .302/.360/.474, 126 OPS+ as a RHH against LHP  and .223/.281/.411, 86 OPS+ as a LHH against RHP.

     

    I think that this is what the FO has seen and made Park expendable and made them looking for the likes of Alvarez (.251/.326/.522 , 121 OPS+ as a LHH against RHP in 2016) to platoon him with at least for one more season.

     

    I would not mind seeing Vargas at DH again a full season, but I think that the Vargas/Alvarez two-headed beast looks more and more promising by the minute...

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    kab21

    kab21 2,459

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Vargas has his flaws (nearly zero defensive value or flexibility) but he has shown a pretty good ability to hit the ball at all levels. He doesn't possess the upside of Sano or even Kepler but there are several paths that lead to him being a .800 or even .850 OPS DH. I certainly am willing to start him 5 games/wk to see what the Twins have. Especially if the other option is a scrap heap pickup or Park (whom I think has fairly decent potential also but is 30 years old).

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    TheLeviathan

    TheLeviathan 17,473

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    He stopped playing when Plouffe came back from injury, and when he cooled off from his hot streak. At that point last season, could Vargas get the nod over Plouffe? Sure, the season was already over. He went back to AAA to get every day at-bats to continue his growth. When he came back up in September he played every day, and continued to struggle. 

    I'm just not that bothered by not giving him every day at-bats over a 2 week period, and I don't think they did him wrong by sending him back down to AAA at that time. 

     

    I would argue virtually anyone should've been starting over Plouffe.  Yet another victim of that decision.

     

    So, yeah, he should have kept playing.  And he damn sure should be playing over Adam Lind or the husk of Justin Morneau.  The kid has hit in the minors, he's not even a fluke like Dozier.  There is a history there of production.

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    kab21

    kab21 2,459

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    I really like Vargas.   Matter of fact in 2014, I had him ranked as the Twins' 7th best prospect, probably the highest ranking that he has gotten (and that was when the system was much better.)

     

    That said.  I agree with the above, but really Vargas' MLB career needs  to be described with 2 slash lines, instead of one:

     

    .302/.360/.474, 126 OPS+ as a RHH against LHP  and .223/.281/.411, 86 OPS+ as a LHH against RHP.

     

    I think that this is what the FO has seen and made Park expendable and made them looking for the likes of Alvarez (.251/.326/.522 , 121 OPS+ as a LHH against RHP in 2016) to platoon him with at least for one more season.

     

    I would not mind seeing Vargas at DH again a full season, but I think that the Vargas/Alvarez two-headed beast looks more and more promising by the minute...

    350 AB's is a pretty small sample size especially considering inconsistent playing time.

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    Vanimal46

    Vanimal46 28,724

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    I would argue virtually anyone should've been starting over Plouffe.  Yet another victim of that decision.

     

    So, yeah, he should have kept playing.  And he damn sure should be playing over Adam Lind or the husk of Justin Morneau.  The kid has hit in the minors, he's not even a fluke like Dozier.  There is a history there of production.

     

    I don't think we'll come to an agreement here, when most of the time we're on the same page. 

    I'd really only be comfortable with him as a platoon DH against LH pitching. In the grand scheme of things that's ~250 at-bats. He didn't look that great, and frankly over-matched against RH pitching last season. 

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    ThejacKmp

    ThejacKmp 2,978

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    W

     

    A 103 OPS+ for a DH that brings nothing else to the table is pretty bad.

     

    He might improve from consistent at bats, but I'm pretty skeptical. K rate is huge. He did have one brief stretch where he walked into some bombs, but seemed exposed with more at bats.

     

    What else would a DH bring to the table? DHs hit and that's it. A young developing 26 year old switch-hitting power hitter who may have taken a big jump last year (but otherwise is a slightly above average hitter) seems like exactly the guy the Twins should start the season with!

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    USAFChief

    USAFChief 58,010

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

     

    Benches are way too small to carry a dh only who primarily plays against lh starters. Those guys are always on the scrap heap.

    He has to show something more.

    I would argue there's room for a 3 person 1B/DH combo, as long as the team can get the platoon advantage almost all the time.  For that to work, at least one (Vargas) has to be a switch hitter.

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    nicksaviking

    nicksaviking 26,755

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    I would argue there's room for a 3 person 1B/DH combo, as long as the team can get the platoon advantage almost all the time. For that to work, at least one (Vargas) has to be a switch hitter.

    I would agree, but color me extremely skeptical that Joe Mauer is going to see any significant reduction in playing time, baring injury of course.

     

    Even if in theory the front office is game to it, it will be Molitor, not them who will be omitting Mauer's name from the lineup and dealing with any awkwardness and repercussions.

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    drjim

    drjim 7,100

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    I would argue there's room for a 3 person 1B/DH combo, as long as the team can get the platoon advantage almost all the time. For that to work, at least one (Vargas) has to be a switch hitter.

    This would work if he hits enough. He's especially light from the left side.

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    Riverbrian

    Riverbrian 32,096

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    • Posted

     

    I've never been real high on Vargas, but i have no problem with them giving him 500 PA in 2017 to see. The power is certainly there. 

     

    Some clearly are not that high on him and that's ok with me. 

     

    To be honest... I'm not even asking for 500 PA 's in 2017. 

     

    If he is struggling... So be it... do what you mast do. I will be looking at 2017 as a prove it year for the majority of the roster. 

     

    I'm only asking that if he is getting the job done... let him continue. I don't want to see a guy with OPS over a grand benched when a low OPS Vet comes off the disabled list to reclaim his job that he was struggling with. 

     

    I've grown distrustful of the evaluations that are leading to decision making that causes the benching of a player who has an OPS over 1.000. 

     

     

     

     

     

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    Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel 41,021

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    The Twins probably don't *need* more data on Vargas, they seem to realize what they have.

    Seems likely they aren't going to get anyone clearly better to fill the role.

     

    Ya, we don't agree on that. Didn't TK have some number of games before we know? 

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    drjim

    drjim 7,100

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    Ya, we don't agree on that. Didn't TK have some number of games before we know?

    He said 1000. Vargas has 600.

     

    But I would say he's performed as would probably be expected based on his minors performance.

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    Lee-The-Twins-Fan

    Lee-The-Twins-Fan 261

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    I'm on the fence about Vargas... I am a huge fan of versatility, and I don't see it in him. Players who can do more than hit – who can field well. I don't think Vargas has shown he can field all that well. If he's up with the Twins, they could split time with him and Mauer at 1B, which makes sense. I hope he's a better 1B than he's shown.

     

    On the other hand, I cannot deny his power. 10 home runs in 47 games is very good. His walk rate improved last year (as did his HR rate), but his BA fell. He's been inconsistent with the bat, and since that's his biggest asset as a MLB player, it's hard to peg whether he should be a full-time DH, or a PT 1B.

     

    I'd like to see how he does in ST before making any more evaluations.

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    ashbury

    ashbury 48,546

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    Ya, we don't agree on that. Didn't TK have some number of games before we know? 

    I think his 1000 PA (or whatever) rule of thumb was cautionary: if someone starts his career hot, don't get too excited until things run their course. I don't think he advocated the other direction, of giving every prospect his 1000 PA, fair and square.

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    Jham

    Jham 2,495

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    • Posted

     

    I think his 1000 PA (or whatever) rule of thumb was cautionary: if someone starts his career hot, don't get too excited until things run their course. I don't think he advocated the other direction, of giving every prospect his 1000 PA, fair and square.

    I'd say the scouting and projection game has changed slightly since then as well...  

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    tobi0040

    tobi0040 4,125

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    I have no issues with giving Vargas 500 AB's so we can see what we have. Personally I don't think he will out produce the random 34 year old FA signing like Napoli, but given where we are as a franchise that is fine with me.

     

    The issue is consistency. If we are potentially punting the DH role to "see what we have", what is the point of having Dozier and Ervin on this team?

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    diehardtwinsfan

    diehardtwinsfan 14,830

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

     

    I would argue there's room for a 3 person 1B/DH combo, as long as the team can get the platoon advantage almost all the time.  For that to work, at least one (Vargas) has to be a switch hitter.

     

    I would also argue that while having premium defenders to sub, it's also quiet nice to always have a premium bat on the bench to sub as well. You don't necessarily need to go out and get the next Thome, but having a 3 man platoon at 1B/DH ensures that you have a decent bat on the bench if needed each game.

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    Riverbrian

    Riverbrian 32,096

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    I have no issues with giving Vargas 500 AB's so we can see what we have. Personally I don't think he will out produce the random 34 year old FA signing like Napoli, but given where we are as a franchise that is fine with me.

    The issue is consistency. If we are potentially punting the DH role to "see what we have", what is the point of having Dozier and Ervin on this team?

     

    Vargas Grossman and Park are currently DH options so I don't think its a total potential punt. 

     

     

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    Richie the Rally Goat

    Richie the Rally Goat 9,100

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    I'd say the scouting and projection game has changed slightly since then as well...

    very true, but statistical sample sizes have become more important since then. I think there's still a number and it's probably somewhere in this neighborhood and I would assume it's part of a rate over a period of time. It's still there and still important as a part of a philosophy to use all of the tools to analyze and develop players
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    Richie the Rally Goat

    Richie the Rally Goat 9,100

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    I have no issues with giving Vargas 500 AB's so we can see what we have. Personally I don't think he will out produce the random 34 year old FA signing like Napoli, but given where we are as a franchise that is fine with me.

     

    The issue is consistency. If we are potentially punting the DH role to "see what we have", what is the point of having Dozier and Ervin on this team?

    until the pitching improves significantly it's all pretty much one big punt. As there were no trades to do so it stays a developmental team in my mind.

     

    The goal for the season is to develop for the future, and if you catch lightning in a bottle with Berrios and May taking big steps forward in the rotation and Chargois, Hughes and a couple others in the bullpen with the fielding improvements at SS, OF, and catcher, you might be able to become competitive in 2017.

     

    This "plan" hinges on 4 to 6 hits on the roulette wheel in a row early in the season. Not exactly high likelihood for success.

     

    So yes if everything works perfectly the DH will matter a lot. I don't see that as likely so let's see if Vargas can be that guy.

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    beckmt

    beckmt 2,069

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Reading between the lines, I can see what Falvey and Levine think of Vargas and Park.  According to mlbtraderumors the Twins offered Napoli more money than he signed for with Texas. 

    That is telling me they do not see a future here long term for either Park or Vargas. 

    The fact that Twins are still being linked to other DH types is singing the same song.  Unless something changes Vargas are Park are both considered short term here.  They could both be gone if the Twins can find an decent DH to sign(unlikely at this point).

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    jimmer

    jimmer 9,961

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    • Posted

     

    Reading between the lines, I can see what Falvey and Levine think of Vargas and Park.  According to mlbtraderumors the Twins offered Napoli more money than he signed for with Texas. 

    That is telling me they do not see a future here long term for either Park or Vargas. 

     

    I sometimes wonder why anyone who has watched these two play feel otherwise?

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    Brock Beauchamp

    Brock Beauchamp 39,328

  • Administrator

    • Posted

     

    I sometimes wonder why anyone who has watched these two play feel otherwise?

    Yeah, I don't mind taking a flyer on Vargas, as he's still young enough to be a stopgap DH. If he can post a .780 OPS, that's fine for a spell.

     

    Or if you can combine Vargas and Grossman to get .800 out of the DH spot in a platoon, that's even better.

     

    But I think that's approaching a best case scenario.

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