What the Early Twins Offseason Rumblings Tell Us

In an environment where Kyle Gibson gets $30 Million over 3 years, probably this is a year to stay out of the bidding wars on the top and 2nd tier free agents. Re-sign Pineda, and go with Odorizzi and Berríos as the top 3. Then let the rest of the Twins roster fight for the last two spots Graterol, Dobnak, Thorpe, Romero, Smeltzer and others can try to prove themselves. Or the Twins should look to make a trade for x starter. Otherwise, the Twins pay big bucks for Wheeler based on potential more than past performance, or pay big bucks for aging and likely declining pitchers like Ryu and Mad-Bum.

So your plan then is to essentially trot out the same rotation in 20 as you did in 19 less Gibson?

 

In an environment where Kyle Gibson gets $30 Million over 3 years, probably this is a year to stay out of the bidding wars on the top and 2nd tier free agents. Re-sign Pineda, and go with Odorizzi and Berríos as the top 3. Then let the rest of the Twins roster fight for the last two spots Graterol, Dobnak, Thorpe, Romero, Smeltzer and others can try to prove themselves. Or the Twins should look to make a trade for x starter. Otherwise, the Twins pay big bucks for Wheeler based on potential more than past performance, or pay big bucks for aging and likely declining pitchers like Ryu and Mad-Bum.

The FA environment is always the same. If not now at this point where our need is the greatest its ever been, then when?

 

Except zero sum isn't better. And, Pineda is highly rated, not someone no one had thought of and no one is interested in. The post I responded to said find someone better, that no one is interested in....

I didn't think you were trying to be that literal about it.    I go to mlb.com and there is zero buzz about Pineda and a lot about Wheeler.    Would not surprise me to see Pineda go for less than half of what Wheeler gets and I think I would rather have Pineda.    That puts him in the better camp.    But ok, zero interest that is better than Wheeler?    Graterol or even Dobnak might end up better but can't say no one has interest in them.   You win.     

We'll know a little more tonight after the Cron decision. Rumors has the Brewers shopping Hader. 4 years of control, and a $4.6m number next year. Wolfson says we are talking to Boras about Ryu. With everyone apparently wanting Wheeler I am skeptical we offer the most? Maybe we see a blockbuster trade for a #1 starter? Hoping if we don't pony up for Wheeler, that we make a trade. Hate to lose prospects, but this is the off season to go for it. One way or the other, I am hopeful the off season rumblings this winter include 2 stud starters please to go along with resigning Pineda.

 

I'm perusing the starting pitchers that were good last year....there aren't a lot on non-playoff teams. Especially if you eliminate any with only a year or two in the majors. Other than the Marlins pitcher last year, it's hard to think of starters traded with more than 2-3 years of control left. I think trading is going to be difficult, and pricey.

The Orioles seem intent on tanking for the next 3 seasons or so. How about John Means? Make it a blockbuster and get Givens for the pen and Mancini to replace Cron. Or is Means too big of a risk in not being established enough yet?

 

In an environment where Kyle Gibson gets $30 Million over 3 years, probably this is a year to stay out of the bidding wars on the top and 2nd tier free agents. Re-sign Pineda, and go with Odorizzi and Berríos as the top 3. Then let the rest of the Twins roster fight for the last two spots Graterol, Dobnak, Thorpe, Romero, Smeltzer and others can try to prove themselves. Or the Twins should look to make a trade for x starter. Otherwise, the Twins pay big bucks for Wheeler based on potential more than past performance, or pay big bucks for aging and likely declining pitchers like Ryu and Mad-Bum.

 

Then prepare for another 1st round sweep should they make the playoffs. Who cares if the Pohlads have to spend some money. We will have assets that are easy to move should the plan bomb out the next year or 2 in order to recoup some of the money invested. Gutless thinking will not get it done. 

I think you offer Cron.arbitration. He could wind up being this years Jonathan Schoop. If someone comes in and beats him out of the position, great.

Wolfson says we are talking to Boras about Ryu.

Music to my ears. We're the Twins, we can't afford to give up early round picks with our blockbuster signings. Ryu has no QO attached. Maybe he's the target and interest in Wheeler is feigned. Keep hearing 5 years 100-110 million, but I think that might be the floor. After that postseason, the FA pitcher market is gonna be crazy.

I think you offer Cron.arbitration. He could wind up being this years Jonathan Schoop. If someone comes in and beats him out of the position, great.

Too much money for the easiest position to fill. We got Kiriloff and Rooker coming.

 

Too much money for the easiest position to fill. We got Kiriloff and Rooker coming.

The thought that we have Kiriloff, Rooker, etal possibly coming makes this similar to the Schoop position last year. Arbitration is a 1 year signing.

 

I assume, then, you won't make a trade of a good prospect either? Because a good prospect is worth more than a 2nd round pick, not to mention what multiple good prospects are worth compared to one 2nd round pick....

 

LOL

 

Don't trade prospects, don't sign Free Agents. In Carl's ghost we trust. 

 

I'm done with it. If they don't spend at least 100 million on starting pitching this year, it's a massive failure. You want Ryu? Fine, bring him in here along with Wheeler or Bumgartner. I've got no problem with that and it should also be more than possible. 

We aren't the little engine that could anymore. This team is filled with a roster full of boppers and athleticism that is young. It's time to go for it. Sign the studs or trade for them. Our fanbase deserves it, as well as the entire roster that has more than proven their worth. 

 

As much as I’m interested in Wheeler’s untapped potential, I feel like we’d be taking the same risk Boston took when signing Eovaldi; only a much bigger. Again, I’m not opposed to signing Wheeler, but I’d feel much more comfortable in signing a trio of Pineda, Keuchel, and Porcello to short term deals instead.

In my opinion, the risk of signing Wheeler is nowhere near what the Eovaldi signing was.  Eovaldi capitalized on an excellent 12 games after being traded to the Red Sox (and a great posteseason) to get a 4 year $68M contract ($17M AAV).  He had a total bWAR of 7.6 the previous 5 season.

 

Wheeler has 7.4 bWAR over the past two seasons.  I'd take the "risk" of a 5yr $110M contract for him any day over the Eovaldi contract.  IMO the Twins need at least one more pitcher better than Odorizzi to compete in the playoffs.  I don't see any of those other three as being that, save for maybe what Pineda showed right before his suspension.  If the Twins aren't going to open the pocketbook this year, then I guess they are happy with last year as their best possible outcome.  If you fail to cultivate top end starters from the farm you have to spend money in FA, and usually overspend to get what you need.

 

John Means is a soft tossing high contact righty. He had a good year but he's not a guy anyone would ever want leading a WS contending rotation, and he doesn't have the stuff to become that guy. He doesn't do a lot for me.

 

Yeah, a guy like Wheeler is a risk, but he's got a 97MPH heater, he strikes out a batter an inning and he's not going to make you worry about his control. It might not all come together, but at least he has the potential to be able to match up against the Yankees or Astros. I don't think anyone could say the same about even the other pitchers considered in his tier like Keuchek, Ryu or even Bumgarner, let alone anyone on Baltimore's staff.

 

And I realize your Means suggestion was in no way suggesting that the team shouldn't get a guy like Wheeler. Sounded like you were on board with free agents in addition to trades.

Yes, I want to see Wheeler or someone comparable or better even signed. Then sign a Keuchel type or someone like Tehran for our #4 spot. I was responding to mikes comment about not much quality on non contenders. Means was one of the few that stood out to me. otherwise he's right on. I'd prefer we go the FA market first, then we have our farm kids for insurance against injury and or a poor performer, and for when Rosario and maybe Cron move on as replacements.

Giving up what is essentially a mid-second round pick for signing a guy that could be at the front of our rotation for the next half-decade is not that heavy of a price to pay.

The second round pick alone, no. But the "price to pay" is 5 or more years commitment, 100 or more million. People say he's going to be good. Ryu was the better pitcher most recently. I'd rather have him for less than five years.

 

Financial Flexibility is the key for winning teams, having the ability to sign or trade for high price players but choosing not to is more important than not being able to sign or trade for those players because you are hamstrung by payroll. </s>

 

 

Wish you people would quit being so snarky about Tampa Bay. They didn't do all that poorly, you know.

I assume, then, you won't make a trade of a good prospect either?

I would. Just because I don't want to get into a costly commitment to Zach Wheeler shouldn't lead to make some sweeping assumption regarding a different thing, trades. Every situation is different. I don't know if Wheeler will be as good as Ryu, but he's going be more expensive and cost a draft pick.

 

If it's Cole or Strasburg, though, I don't hesitate to give up my first rounder.

Madison Bumgarner had essentially the same season that Zack Wheeler had last year.

MadBum with a few more innings pitched, a better WHIP, essentially the same K/9...and a slightly lower ERA+.

 

MadBum is less that 10 months older than Wheeler. I get the extra 'mileage'..theoretically. Still, less than 10 months older. Talk up Wheeler, and swoop in and get MadBum on friendlier terms!

 

(I'm fine with at least one of MadBum, Ryu, or Wheeler.)

I hope the Twins sign Wheeler. He is a playoff caliber starting pitcher.

 

I am not convinced he is better than Odorizzi (also a playoff caliber starting pitcher in my opinion).

 

He is moving from a NL pitcher friendly park to Minnesota. It will have an impact on his overall numbers.

 

Here is some data that I am sure some will disregard.

 

The last two seasons pitchers have come to the plate against him 106 times. He has turned 98 of those plate appearances into outs giving up 7 hits and 1 walk while striking out 56. In the AL he will face a DH instead. Those additional PAs are going to eat into his innings per start and increase his number of high pitch count innings.

 

In his 5 AL park starts over the last two years he has thrown 28 innings in 5 starts. Those starts were against New York, Kansas City, Chicago, Toronto and Baltimore. The Yankees are awesome but don’t you think he should have been more dominant against the other 4? The White Sox are the only team where he pitched 7 innings.

 

I want Wheeler but I have no expectation that his numbers will be close to his CitiPark numbers. Unless baseball takes some of the life out of the baseball I think we should expect somewhere near 6 innings per start while strikeout and walk rates merge closer together when he isn’t feasting off opposing pitchers.

 

It is very likely that someone will pay a heavy premium for AL performance that isn’t much different than Odorizzi’s. I am kind of hoping that team is the Twins.