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That the Twins locked up Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco to long-term extensions doesn’t give us any clue what it might take to lock up other young, core Twins players. We only know that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have made it clear that there have been other conversations with other players.
But also in the last week, two young All-Star pitchers signed long-term extensions which will keep them with their current teams through and potentially beyond their arbitration years.
AARON NOLA - PHILLIES
The Phillies signed 25-year-old RHP Aaron Nola to a four year, $45 million with an option for a fifth season. It buys out three arbitration seasons, a free agent season and possibly a second free agent season.
Nola was the seventh overall pick in the 2014 draft. He debuted with the Phillies in 2015 and went 6-2 with a 3.59 ERA in 13 starts. In 2016, he went 6-9 with 4.78 ERA in 20 starts. However, he took off in 2017. He went 12-11 with a 3.54 ERA. He finished third in National League Cy Young Award voting in 2018 when he went 17-6 with a 2.37 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in 212 1/3 innings over 33 starts. Over 380 1/3 innings in the last two seasons he struck out 408 batters (9.7 K/9).
LUIS SEVERINO - YANKEES
The Yankees signed RHP Luis Severino to a four year, $40 million with an option for a fifth season. It buys out his four arbitration seasons and provides an option for his first free agent season.
Severino made his MLB debut in 2015 when he went 5-3 with a 2.89 ERA. However, in 2016, he went just 3-8 with a 5.83 ERA over 22 games (11 starts). However, in 2017, he made 31 starts and went 14-6 with a 2.98 ERA in 193 1/3 innings. He finished third in the American League Cy Young vote that season. In 2018, he was 19-8 with a 3.39 ERA in 32 starts. Over 384 2/3 innings in the last two seasons, he struck out 450 batters (10.5 K/9).
JOSE BERRIOS - TWINS
The Twins 2018 All-Star will turn 25 in late May. He made his debut in 2016 and in 14 starts, he went 3-7 with an ERA of 8.02. He came back better in 2017. In 26 games (25 starts), he went 14-8 with a 3.89 ERA. In 2018, he made 32 starts and went 12-11 with a 3.84 ERA. Over these past two seasons, he has thrown a combined 341 strikeouts in 338 innings of work (9.1 K/9).
TIMING IS EVERYTHING
As you can see from the above, Berrios is essentially one year behind Severino and Nola in terms of service time. 2019 was the first arbitration season for both Nola and Severino. In Severino’s case, it was his first of four arbitration seasons. Berrios will have three arbitration years, starting in 2020.
While Berrios has had two straight seasons with sub-4.00 ERAs and an All-Star Game appearance, Severino and Nola each has had a third-place Cy Young finish, better ERAs (in their past two seasons) and a higher strikeout rate.
That said, most believe that there is more potential in Berrios’s arm and we all hope to see that in 2019. If that is the case and he puts up a mid-2s ERA instead of a mid-3s ERA, Berrios will be in the same position as Nola and Severino were this year when they signed their extensions.
In other words, if we look at the extensions of Nola and Severino on a year-by-year basis, Berrios should be slightly below those numbers, though he should ask for the same type of numbers.
What might a potential Jose Berrios extension look like relative to the Nola and Severino deals? In the below chart, we look at the actual year-by-year breakdown of the Nola and Severino contracts. The third column shows how a similarly-built Berrios contract might look. The final column shows how that contract could be front loaded (similar to Max Kepler’s Unique Contract).
NOTE: A1 (1st arbitration season), FA (Free Agent), PA (Pre-Arbitration), O$ (Option Year)
So what do you think? A five year, $41 million contract for Jose Berrios? If the option was to be picked up, it would be approximately a six year, $53 million contract. Even if Berrios’s option is picked up, he would be a free agent at the age of 30 and able to get another big deal.
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