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  • What if This is the Max for Kepler?


    Ted Schwerzler

    At the end of the 2018 Major League Baseball season the Minnesota Twins had a trio of main narratives. First and foremost, this was a team that took steps backwards after a Wild Card appearance the season before. Secondly and thirdly were the double-headed monster representing lost seasons for cornerstones Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano. Lost in all of this though, was the year another member of the current core endured. Max Kepler played 156 games and there remain plenty more questions than answers.

    Image courtesy of © Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports

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    Entering the 2019 season, Kepler will be a 26-year-old with over 400 games and 1,600 plate appearances under his belt. He’ll have what amounts to roughly three full big-league seasons and should be more prime than a prospect at this point. Looking back at the past two seasons however, growth is hard to find, and time may be running out.

    In 2017 Kepler posted a .737 OPS that was buoyed by an .828 OPS against righties. Despite never seeing significant platoon splits in the minors, he was routinely getting benched against southpaws down the stretch. With a .453 OPS against lefties, Paul Molitor had determined he was untrustworthy with a bat in those spots. Fast forward to 2018 and we’ve got normalization, but little else. Last season Kepler owned a .720 OPS vs RHP and a .745 mark against LHP, though the power came almost exclusively against righties.

    Right now, it’s hard not to wonder where the past two seasons leave things with Kepler. He got out of the gate quickly in 2018, posting a .921 OPS through April 30. Owning just a .690 OPS the rest of the way however, he went from a plus-bat to a mediocre one. In a season that the Twins needed someone to step up during the absence of Buxton, it was Jake Cave who proved more notable than the expected-to-improve German.

    Posting a career best 2.6 fWAR it wasn’t all downhill for Max a season ago. What bolstered that mark was his emergence in the field. Kepler has been a capable defender during his career, but the 6.6 defensive value was light years ahead of where he’s been throughout his professional tenure. He posted 10 DRS across all outfield positions, which nearly doubled his previous career high.

    With the expanded role Kepler also fared well on the Statcast leaderboards. His 10 outs above average was tied for 11th in baseball, and he contributed 3% to his expected catch percentage this past season. That’s up slightly from the 8 OAA tally from 2017 and helped to fill the void felt by Minnesota being without the OAA leader in Byron Buxton.

    All things considered the Twins need to feel a more significant all-around impact from Kepler going forward. It’s great that his defensive game has continued to raise the bar, but offensive stagnation at this stage of the game is anything but ideal. His 37.1% hard hit rate and 15.9% ground ball rate were both career bests, but there’s room for improvement in the middle.

    Kepler has been vocal previously about his lack of desire to elevate the baseball. We’ve all but concluded that the most successful way to launch the baseball is increasing the launch angle. Despite his reservations Kepler’s results trended towards that reality this season. Unfortunately, his 46.2% fly ball rate and 37.8% line drive rate weren’t more married together. Rather than achieving an optimal launch angle, Kepler lifted often with little room for error. His 9.9% HR/FB was a career low and has trended downward each of the past two season.

    Whether it falls on James Rowson in 2019, or a different coach entirely, continuing to get Kepler’s buy in to the launch angle revolution is a must. The more he understands the approach, the more likely he becomes able to execute upon it.

    Right now, it’s all but set in stone that Max Kepler will open 2019 as a starting outfielder for the Minnesota Twins. The new manager will be tasked with getting the best out of Byron Buxton, and Eddie Rosario is inked in as well. Max continuing to tread water could lead to ceded playing time to Cave or some yet to be realized commodity. As important as it’s always been for the Twins to develop Jose Berrios, Sano, Buxton, and Rosario, it’s equally important for Max to step up with that group as well. The breakout needs to come, and soon would be great.

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    Good pitchers also induce more K's and fewer walks.

     

    There aren't that many good pitchers in the game to explain his poor hard hit rate. Besides, it's not like he's facing an ace every day. Pitch selection is certainly part of it, but it's certainly not all of it. He simply needs to learn to drive the ball. That's coachable. So is pitch selection for that matter.

     

    Coachable eh? Check this out.

     

    https://www.twincities.com/2018/03/05/max-kepler-wont-change-his-launch-angle-just-for-homers-sake/

     

    This one is cool too.

     

    http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/max-kepler-looks-to-bonds-for-hitting-inspiration-r5406

     

    Give these a read and let me know if you think no one has yet tried to coach him, then look at his stats again to see the results of said coaching.

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    Since you’re talking about adding an impact bat(s) to our lineup, who do you have in mind besides Esco, because I really doubt he’ coming back?? Personally, I’d like to see us sign Nelson Cruz and then trade for either Matt Carpenter or Justin Smoak.

    I was thinking Marwin Gonzalez or Andrew McCutchen for RF
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    Coachable eh? Check this out.

     

    https://www.twincities.com/2018/03/05/max-kepler-wont-change-his-launch-angle-just-for-homers-sake/

     

    This one is cool too.

     

    http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/max-kepler-looks-to-bonds-for-hitting-inspiration-r5406

     

    Give these a read and let me know if you think no one has yet tried to coach him, then look at his stats again to see the results of said coaching.

    http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/process-set-to-yield-results-for-kepler-r7105

     

    And yet Kepler’s swing induces a ton of pop ups. That goofy loop in his swing where he kind of chops down and the pushes his hands back up... I wonder how much time has been spent trying to get him to flatten his swing out so the barrel stays in the zone longer?

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    I was thinking Marwin Gonzalez or Andrew McCutchen for RF

    While I agree that the Twins OF isn’t exactly an’ area of strength, due to it’s underperformance and inconsistencies, I definitely do not think it’s a concern worthy of signing Cutch (maybe Marwin tho), especially with Wade/Rooker/Cave as AAA depth. And with Polanco and Sano as the only “locks” in the infield, along with no immediate depth besides Gordon (maybe Arraez??), the Twins biggest priorities lie in both the corner and middle infield. And yes, Marwin Gonzalez would be a great addition, but I have a feeling he’d much rather stay in Houston.

     

    Unfortunately, our FA options are likely limited to only Iglesias, Harrison, Galvis, Mercer, etc. Although maybe there’s a slight chance that Murphy or Lowrie would be willing to come to MN, but like I said earlier, we can always make a trade (Rendon/Carpenter/Smoak).

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    While I agree that the Twins OF isn’t exactly an’ area of strength, due to it’s underperformance and inconsistencies, I definitely do not think it’s a concern worthy of signing Cutch (maybe Marwin tho), especially with Wade/Rooker/Cave as AAA depth. And with Polanco and Sano as the only “locks” in the infield, along with no immediate depth besides Gordon (maybe Arraez??), the Twins biggest priorities lie in both the corner and middle infield. And yes, Marwin Gonzalez would be a great addition, but I have a feeling he’d much rather stay in Houston.

     

    Unfortunately, our FA options are likely limited to only Iglesias, Harrison, Galvis, Mercer, etc. Although maybe there’s a slight chance that Murphy or Lowrie would be willing to come to MN, but like I said earlier, we can always make a trade (Rendon/Carpenter/Smoak).

    this is a thread about “what if Kepler is what he has been?”

     

    Infield isn’t really relevant to the discussion.

     

    I think Kepler is what he has been, which is valuable, but in need of an upgrade in hit tool for RF but perfectly passable in CF, and excellent 4th OF

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    Coachable eh? Check this out.

     

    https://www.twincities.com/2018/03/05/max-kepler-wont-change-his-launch-angle-just-for-homers-sake/

     

    This one is cool too.

     

    http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/max-kepler-looks-to-bonds-for-hitting-inspiration-r5406

     

    Give these a read and let me know if you think no one has yet tried to coach him, then look at his stats again to see the results of said coaching.

    Interesting articles, both of which I've seen. I don't really see how either suggests that he's not coachable or isn't working/listening to his coaches. It's possible that this is just who he is. That doesn't mean that he's not coachable.

     

    For many players, getting the right message in the right manner means everything. The new staff could come in and work wonders with him. We don't know how that will play out yet.

    Edited by wsnydes
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    this is a thread about “what if Kepler is what he has been?”

    Infield isn’t really relevant to the discussion.

    I think Kepler is what he has been, which is valuable, but in need of an upgrade in hit tool for RF but perfectly passable in CF, and excellent 4th OF

    Jon Jay??

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    While I agree that the Twins OF isn’t exactly an’ area of strength, due to it’s underperformance and inconsistencies, I definitely do not think it’s a concern worthy of signing Cutch (maybe Marwin tho), especially with Wade/Rooker/Cave as AAA depth. And with Polanco and Sano as the only “locks” in the infield, along with no immediate depth besides Gordon (maybe Arraez??), the Twins biggest priorities lie in both the corner and middle infield. And yes, Marwin Gonzalez would be a great addition, but I have a feeling he’d much rather stay in Houston.

    Unfortunately, our FA options are likely limited to only Iglesias, Harrison, Galvis, Mercer, etc. Although maybe there’s a slight chance that Murphy or Lowrie would be willing to come to MN, but like I said earlier, we can always make a trade (Rendon/Carpenter/Smoak).

     

    I bet Brewers fans are glad their GM didn't think this way....

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    I bet Brewers fans are glad their GM didn't think this way....

    This week the Brewers fans might think that way. Next week, a couple of of years from now the fans might be complaining about how they won only one playoff series, they should have traded for an ace pitcher for those game sevens rather than some journeyman pitcher, and there was this OF that they could have gotten cheaply from the Twins  before he became a star if only they traded for him.

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    I like Kepler.  As things stand currently I would rather have a consistent above average Kepler than a Buxton/Sano who can't be counted on to be on the field and who knows what you get when they are?

     

    Agreed.  Can't believe this is being debated already.  With all the problems Buxton and Sano have are people really thinking about throwing Kepler out while at the same time yelling at those that criticize Buxton and Sano?  Seems like a bit of a double standard.  Just glad they aren't managing this team.  At least Kepler has a pulse hitting wise.  Give Buxton, Sano and Kepler another season to turn it around.

    Edited by laloesch
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    Interesting articles, both of which I've seen. I don't really see how either suggests that he's not coachable or isn't working/listening to his coaches. It's possible that this is just who he is. That doesn't mean that he's not coachable.

     

    For many players, getting the right message in the right manner means everything. The new staff could come in and work wonders with him. We don't know how that will play out yet.

    Agree. Those articles suggest he’s actively trying to hit more line drives, which is what he needs to do. The last thing he needs is to get under more pitches for more pop ups.

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    Kepler appears to be making good adjustments at the plate.  If he can combine the best of his approaches to righties in 2017 and lefties in 2018 I think he takes the next step.  He is still young and improving.  This team is going nowhere anytime soon, you might as well wait and see while grooming his replacement..

     

    I think what's concerning is he really isn't improving when it comes to his hit tool. OPS+ of 96, 95, 96 over the last three years is not encouraging. I'm not ready to give up on him by any means, but there's a legitimate concern that this may be who he is at the plate: a low average, reasonably patient hitter with some pop in his bat, but overall a below average hitter.

     

    I hope he proves me wrong, but the lack of overall improvement at the MLB level is discouraging. He's not old, but after 3 years in MLB it's hard to go, "well, he's young".

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    This week the Brewers fans might think that way. Next week, a couple of of years from now the fans might be complaining about how they won only one playoff series, they should have traded for an ace pitcher for those game sevens rather than some journeyman pitcher, and there was this OF that they could have gotten cheaply from the Twins  before he became a star if only they traded for him.

     

    Pretty sure you missed the point......the Brewers didn't say "meh, our OF is fine".....they upgraded it with some certainty compared to what they had. None of that has anything to do with your post (i agree, they should have traded for pitching at the deadline).

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    I think what's concerning is he really isn't improving when it comes to his hit tool. OPS+ of 96, 95, 96 over the last three years is not encouraging. I'm not ready to give up on him by any means, but there's a legitimate concern that this may be who he is at the plate: a low average, reasonably patient hitter with some pop in his bat, but overall a below average hitter.

     

    I hope he proves me wrong, but the lack of overall improvement at the MLB level is discouraging. He's not old, but after 3 years in MLB it's hard to go, "well, he's young".

    Agreed. This is where the FO needs to make a judgment call. He still has 3 years of control left, which is valuable alone. If they keep him for 2019 and he remains a 95-96 OPS+ player his value is lower in November 2019 than it is right now.

     

    I'm not confident he'll take the next step at the plate, hence why I'm beating the drum to trade him with a package of prospects to acquire a difference maker.

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    Agreed. This is where the FO needs to make a judgment call. He still has 3 years of control left, which is valuable alone. If they keep him for 2019 and he remains a 95-96 OPS+ player his value is lower in November 2019 than it is right now.

    I'm not confident he'll take the next step at the plate, hence why I'm beating the drum to trade him with a package of prospects to acquire a difference maker.

     

    It's a difficult call, especially with Buxton's future uncertain and only about a half season of play from Jake Cave to evaluate. While there's a real risk that we've seen who Kepler is as a hitter, there's a significant risk that Cave can't replicate his production. Moving on from Kepler leaves the team vulnerable if Buxton or Cave can't hold down CF full-time by losing another guy who can be an asset out there.

     

    I honestly don't know what the right play is here, but it's one of the most difficult ones the FO is facing, I think. 

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    It's a difficult call, especially with Buxton's future uncertain and only about a half season of play from Jake Cave to evaluate. While there's a real risk that we've seen who Kepler is as a hitter, there's a significant risk that Cave can't replicate his production. Moving on from Kepler leaves the team vulnerable if Buxton or Cave can't hold down CF full-time by losing another guy who can be an asset out there.

     

    I honestly don't know what the right play is here, but it's one of the most difficult ones the FO is facing, I think.

    They don't have to only look internally for a replacement. There are several corner OFs available in free agency.

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    I think the point was that Kepler could play CF with more certainty than Cave or Buxton at this point.....not about corner OFs.

     

    Exactly, and that's why I wouldn't move him this winter. Kepler's bat is meh for me in RF but it plays up in CF if Buxton doesn't produce...and that's not that big of an 'if' at this point.

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    Exactly, and that's why I wouldn't move him this winter. Kepler's bat is meh for me in RF but it plays up in CF if Buxton doesn't produce...and that's not that big of an 'if' at this point.

    I'm in the "Buxton starts in AAA until he proves he can hit" camp. Kepler is then my tentative starting CF for '19.

     

    If Buxton somehow figures out the bat and hits like he did for that magical 2 months... Kepler is the 4th outfielder and Cave goes bye bye. 

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    I'm in the "Buxton starts in AAA until he proves he can hit" camp. Kepler is then my tentative starting CF for '19.

     

    If Buxton somehow figures out the bat and hits like he did for that magical 2 months... Kepler is the 4th outfielder and Cave goes bye bye. 

    Huh?  Did I miss something?  If Kepler is 4th OF and Cave is bye bye, who is playing RF?

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    Would love ot see this actually happen. Maybe include him with some AAA pitching to get Realmuto and/or Castro from Miami? 

     

    I'm not sure what level of talent Miami is looking for, but I'd definitely look to include Kepler as an additional piece in a package for some kind of great-to-elite level player.

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    I loved JT as a trade candidate last year, less so this year.....he only has 2 years left on his deal. If I'm trading above average players for different players, I don't want to have only 2 years on the deal.......there are just too many questions about this team for that. Now, if they trade for a guy like this, and sign some great FAs....that's different.

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    Pretty sure you missed the point......the Brewers didn't say "meh, our OF is fine".....they upgraded it with some certainty compared to what they had. None of that has anything to do with your post (i agree, they should have traded for pitching at the deadline).

    There is no indication that the Brewers front office would think their outfield from 2017 was fine.  There is nothing out there that said the collection they used out there was a fine outfield. It was a below average outfield. That they had a couple of prospects in Brinson and Harrison that were at peak value and they got lucky and traded them, which  is to the FO's credit. You, and others ,might have thought the outfield was fine. The FO knew better.  They did what they could to improve it. Their OF would have been even better if the could have unloaded Braun, but you can't always do everything without a willing partner.

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    There is no indication that the Brewers front office would think their outfield from 2017 was fine.  There is nothing out there that said the collection they used out there was a fine outfield. It was a below average outfield. That they had a couple of prospects in Brinson and Harrison that were at peak value and they got lucky and traded them, which  is to the FO's credit. You, and others ,might have thought the outfield was fine. The FO knew better.  They did what they could to improve it. Their OF would have been even better if the could have unloaded Braun, but you can't always do everything without a willing partner.

     

    That's my point....does anyone think the MN OF is fine? I don't.....too many questions, not enough answers....but the post I was responding to with that post, clearly said the MN OF is fine...

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    Huh?  Did I miss something?  If Kepler is 4th OF and Cave is bye bye, who is playing RF?

    upthread I suggested free agent signing - There's a few of us in agreement that Kepler's bat doesn't play as starting RF, but does as CF. 

    Edited by Sconnie
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    I think the point was that Kepler could play CF with more certainty than Cave or Buxton at this point.....not about corner OFs.

    Ah, got it. We're not seriously expecting Kepler to play a bunch in CF are we?

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    That's my point....does anyone think the MN OF is fine? I don't.....too many questions, not enough answers....but the post I was responding to with that post, clearly said the MN OF is fine...

    What you responded to did not say the outfield was fine. Adding McCutheon and Marwin Gonzales because those players are the ones you can add would not transform the outfield into an elite one. They stated the of is not a position of strength. That is a true statement. It does not mean it is a fine outfield,  The reality is Rosario, Kepler and the other outfielders are the better payers on the team. 1b, 2b are anyone's guess  You could replace Kepler with Sano or Polanco for this thread.

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    I don't really see how either suggests that he's not coachable or isn't working/listening to his coaches. It's possible that this is just who he is. That doesn't mean that he's not coachable.

     

    The article literally says a famous player coached him AND the Twins coached him, but in the end it was, "Nah, I'm not gonna do any of that, I gotta be me."

     

    And the Twins coach accepted that response....

     

    Since he's out of options, the Twins coaches can't make him do anything.

    Edited by Doomtints
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