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I remember one July night in 2004. I had finished playing a couple of slow-pitch softball games and was at a local establishment with some of the guys when I saw that the White Sox had acquired All Star outfielder Carl Everett. I went home and wrote a scathing blog post about how the White Sox had made a move and would likely run away with the division.
I was about a year into blogging. The Twins won the division by nine games that year.
Since then, I’ve matured and realized that no matter what deals are made, the game is still played between the lines and on the field. The best example may have been the 2014 Oakland A’s. They had one of the best records in baseball last year at this time. Billy Beane made the decision to “go for it” and gave up a lot to acquire starting pitchers Jon Lester and Jeff Samardzija. The team tanked and then lost the wild card game to the Kansas City Royals.
There is just one absolute in baseball, in my opinion, and that is that there are no absolutes. It’s a great game because you just never know what’s going to happen.
That said, making sound moves in July can certainly help. Improving the level of talent on your team is never a bad thing and can improve the odds of winning. It’s just not a guarantee that there will be actual winning.
With all that said, what would happen if the Twins and GM Terry Ryan decide to stand pat at the July 31 trade deadline? The honest answer from all of us should be “Who knows?”
The Twins currently have a three game lead over the Toronto Blue Jays in the race for the second wild card. Adding Tulowitzki to baseball’s best offense certainly is big. That said, the Blue Jays still need pitching and are linked to some quality starters.
The Twins have three perceived needs; shortstop, catcher and relief pitching. Let’s look at each of those areas and see what would need to happen with each for the Twins to win.
CATCHER
As I wrote a couple of weeks ago, Kurt Suzuki has been pretty bad to this point in 2015. He had a terrific first four months last year and earned his first All-Star experience, but since that game, he has returned to the player that he has been the last three or four years, which isn’t very good. The Twins don’t need him to post a .700 OPS the rest of the way to succeed, but an OPS in the mid-.600s would be good. They also need him to lead the way behind the plate. He has the confidence of his pitchers and that is important. He’s been better of late, hitting .297 over his past 11 games.
SHORTSTOP
Paul Molitor’s ability to continue putting Danny Santana into the lineup at shortstop is equal parts impressive and frustrating. We all see the talent and athleticism that Santana possesses, and we saw how that could look on the field in 2014. It’s just been a bad year for Santana. He’s been arguably the worst full-time player in baseball this year.
If Molitor continues to write Santana’s name into the lineup, Santana doesn’t need to hit .319 like he did last year. He needs to take good at-bats, maybe mix in an occasional walk and drive the ball the way he did in 2014. As important, or maybe more important, he needs to be consistent in the field.
Eduardo Nunez has been getting quite a bit of playing time at shortstop. Though he doesn’t have much range, he has been solid, making most of the plays he gets to. Eduardo Escobar was terrific at shortstop a year ago, offensively and defensively. By going from Santana to Escobar, they would be going from really bad (to this point) to a league average shortstop, which would be a huge improvement.
In my mind, trading for a shortstop is not a high priority because I think they have an internal option that can be just fine.
RELIEF PITCHING
The Twins bullpen, outside of their closer, has been a mess the last couple of months. Blaine Boyer and Aaron Thompson were terrific the first two months but reality has set in for them. Brian Duensing was pretty bad for three months, but he has returned to form in the last month. Thompson was replaced by Ryan O’Rourke, who has been good in his three weeks in the big leagues. Casey Fien has not been the pitcher that he was the last two seasons with the Twins. He has missed time already this season with injury.
Adding a veteran reliever sounds great. I was a big proponent of the Twins getting LaTroy Hawkins because 1.) he’s been really good since coming off the DL, and 2.) it would not have cost a lot in terms of prospects to get him.
There are quite a few similar relievers available, so I don’t think that the Twins need to go after an Aroldis Chapman or Craig Kimbrel to improve the bullpen. They don’t need to give up top prospects to improve the bullpen. In fact, there will be several quality relievers available in August as well.
The other thing to remember is that the relievers that the Twins would be receiving at the end of July would likely get between 25 to 30 innings pitched the rest of the season. The nature of relief pitching says that is a pretty small sample size to be able to know how a guy will perform.
The Twins have guys in Rochester that are capable of coming up and doing well for 25 innings the rest of the way. First, Trevor May was brought in to a one-run game in the eighth inning and came through. He could start seeing more situations like that. Michael Tonkin and AJ Achter continue to pitch well in Rochester. Also, Red Wings starters Tyler Duffey and Taylor Rogers could come up and perform down the stretch.
If the Twins choose not to go get a reliever, it isn’t the end of the world. However, it will mean that guys in the organization will have to piece it together and come up big down the stretch.
SUMMARY
I expect that the Twins will be active in the next four days. Based on little, I expect the Twins will make two moves over the next four days. I don’t expect them to be big names, and I expect (and hope) that the Twins don’t part with any of their top prospects.
The Twins and Terry Ryan have spent the last three years building up one of baseball’s best farm systems. There is a clear long-term plan in place, and my hope is that this trade deadline would not be a big step back to that plan. In reality, the Twins have used some of their youth to put themselves in this position. They have received contributions from Trevor May, Eddie Rosario and Miguel Sano. They will also need veterans like Trevor Plouffe, Brian Dozier and Joe Mauer to lead the offense while Glen Perkins, Phil Hughes and Ervin Santana lead the pitching staff.
That said, the Twins players have put themselves in a position to compete in August and September. It would not be right to not supplement the current roster with some additions. Right now, they have the lead in the wild card race. Though experts don’t expect the Twins success to continue, they are there now, so they might as well go for it. Just not at the expense of the future.
Can the Twins make the playoffs if they stand pat? Of course, they can. A lot would have to go right though. If the Twins add minor pieces, or even major pieces, would it guarantee a playoff berth? Of course not. Appeasing fans is never a good reason for making a move, but a strategic move can certainly create some excitement.
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