What Happened To Jorge Polanco's Sota Pop?

Polanco takes the majority of his plate appearances from the left side and that’s where he put up most of his power numbers in 2019 -- including 16 of his home runs, 30 of his doubles and six of his triples -- so this analysis will focus on that batter’s box.

Now, admittedly, we are still in the early-to-mid stages of players getting their feet underneath them. Polanco has yet to have 100 plate appearances as a left-handed hitter this season. Still, in those appearances, the 26-year-old has only collected three extra base hits (one double and a pair of home runs).

In 2019 he slugged 519 from the left side while he is posting a 354 mark in 2020.

It would be easy to dismiss this as a sample-size issue and say, just wait, he’ll get hot. Except there are some data points that suggests there is something more to this stretch of offense.

First, let’s be clear that Polanco has not changed anything about his approach from the left-side. If you look at all of his plate discipline and swing decision metrics -- chase rates, miss rates, swing rates, etc -- they are almost identical to the year before.

Second, this year has been a really, really messed up. There was spring training. Then there was nothing. Then there was like a long weekend to be ready to face live pitching again. It is hard to say how a hitter would respond to that.

But also the year has been messed up in general. All around. There’s a raging pandemic. An economic crisis. The government more or less said UFOs exist and we didn’t even flinch. Hell, the Timberwolves just received the number one overall draft pick. The globe is probably off its axis and we’re all sliding into an invisible black hole so spending time worrying how one human swings a stick at a thrown projectile should be the least of our concerns.

The most notable difference in the two performance sets is Polanco’s hit types and his hit locations:

His ground ball rate has jumped from 31% in 2019 to 44% in 2020.

His line drive rate is down to 21% from 31% in 2019.

He is not pulling the ball in the air as much as he did a year ago. In 2019 he would pull the ball in the air 34% of the time while this season it’s down to 23%.

Finally, his exit velocity is down from 89 to 84 on average.

What stands out the most to me among that data soup is the decline in the rate of aerial pulls. That’s not actually a term anyone uses but aerial pulls sounds like it has gravitas. Frankly, he is not pulling the ball in the air with authority this season.

While I’m certain the spouting of random numbers is compelling as hell, you should also take a gander at his spray chart here to see how different it looks...in dot form.

Last year he collected 47 hits including nine home runs, 15 doubles and two triples when pulling the ball in the air (or aerial pulling, if you will). This year Polanco has amassed just three hits (two home runs and a double) when pulling the ball in the air from the left side.

To summarize the situation: As a left-handed hitter, Polanco is attacking pitches the same as last year but he’s just not able to elevate them with any power to his pull side. It is obvious that something is off and I’m not so sure it has anything to do with the UFOs.

When you look at a side-by-side of Polanco’s swing from last year versus this year you will start to see where things are getting a little loose for the former All Star in 2020.

There are three key differences:

The first is where he starts his hands. In 2019, his hands were below his shoulder level. This year the hands are at or above his shoulders.

Next is the position of the bat. In 2019 he held it much more vertical (upright) while he holds the bat more with more tilt now.

The last piece is how much the barrel wraps behind his head now compared to a year ago as he moves into the launch position.

What this means is a longer swing path. It is especially apparent when you watch just his hands work.

This year the hands are much further back in the launch position (toward the catcher) and have to travel further forward to the contact point. The barrel turns wider behind him instead of the tighter turn you see in 2019. Similarly, with the bat now more prone instead of vertical, his swing plane is also slightly altered.

What ensues are armsier swings with timing issues that lack the same punch as a year ago. This would result in less power and more grounders.

The interesting part of this development is that Polanco has been a vocal proponent of using video to break down his swing.

“I’m a guy who used a lot of video last year,” he told The Athletic’s Dan Hayes. “I think everything at-bat, I used to watch me to see what I’m doing good and what I’m doing bad, to make an adjustment from there.”

As someone who is used to dissecting his swing on video, he would surely notice this difference. Clearly if he had a side-by-side of these last two seasons he could see the strengths and weaknesses. So it begs the question, is he doing this intentionally? Does he feel more comfortable with the new swing?

There is no question of his ability to make contact. Since the start of 2019 Polanco has maintained an 82.9% contact rate (21st among all qualified hitters). He can put the bat on the ball at an elite level. But what is lacking is his ability to drive it with luster like he did last year.

It is fairly evident that if Polanco needs to review the two swings and decide if he wants to make the necessary adjustments to regain the pop he had in 2019.