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  • What Can Duda Do for You?

    Ted Schwerzler

    By Ted Schwerzler

    When the Minnesota Twins' non-roster invitees to spring training were unveiled, there was a previously unreported name among the bunch. Long time New York Met, and former MVP candidate, Lucas Duda was heading to Fort Myers for the beginning of his 2019 season. Having signed C.J. Cron and with Tyler Austin already in tow, the minor league deal was the avenue for Lucas to get his chance with the Twins. The question is, will it work and should it?

    Image courtesy of © Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

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    The reality is that there’s a decision looming on Tyler Austin. Of this trio, he’s the guy out of options and has the shortest track record. Acquired from the Yankees in exchange for Lance Lynn last season, he performed admirably in 35 games with Minnesota down the stretch. The .782 OPS was hardly otherworldly, but it was enough to warrant a longer look. Through three big league seasons, Austin has just 404 plate appearances to his credit and has never gotten consistent playing time. For that to change with the Twins in the year ahead, we’d probably be in for some sort of surprise.

    C.J. Cron is the expected heir to Joe Mauer at first base. The .816 OPS he posted during 2018 was a career high, and it came during his age-28 season, his first and only with the Tampa Bay Rays. After launching 16 long balls in three consecutive seasons, he turned in 30 over 140 games as a regular. Batting right handed, Cron doesn’t have traditional platoon splits. He owned a .767 OPS vs righties and a .930 OPS vs lefties in 2018. While it’s obvious that he performs better against southpaws, the power was almost entirely skewed the opposite way. Only eight of his 30 home runs came against lefties, though the doubles production was more evenly distributed. As an arbitration player, Cron will make $4.8 million this season.

    Minnesota’s front office grabbed Duda on a non-guaranteed pact that will pay him $1.75 million if he’s on the big-league roster. Per Jon Heyman, there are incentives in the deal that could push it north of $3 million in total compensation. At 33-years-old, and a traditional platoon player, that could push the Twins bill north of $7 million if they go with this combination. Given the production though, it could be a nice tandem.

    A down year last year saw Lucas own just a .731 OPS, coming off an .818 mark in 2017. From 2011-2015, he owned an .803 OPS and averaged right around 20 bombs per season. On Rocco Baldelli’s squad there isn’t room for him to be a regular, but the left-handed side of a platoon makes sense. Last season he saw 265 plate appearances vs righties and put up an .813 OPS with 12 of his 14 home runs. Over the course of his big-league career, the split disparity plays out as well. Duda owns an .839 lifetime OPS against righties as opposed to just a .642 OPS against lefties.

    Should the Twins go this route, it would also need to fit into their current roster construction. Assuming the starting lineup is composed of the usual suspects, we should have a pretty good idea of the bench as well. Mitch Garver is going to be the backup catcher, with Ehire Adrianza acting as the utility infielder and Jake Cave operating as the fourth outfielder. This blueprint leaves only a spot for a fourth bench bat should the Twins begin season with 12 pitchers. Not needing a fifth starter until into April, that seems like a pretty good bet. Garver bats right-handed, while Cave is a lefty, and Adrianza can do both. Garver is the only guy in that trio with any semblance of being a power bat however, so Duda can bring that dynamic as well.

    If I had to put odds on it right now, I’d imagine that both Cron and Duda are teammates out of the gate. Austin would hurt to lose, so I think the Twins would be best served finding a trade partner, but he’s semi-redundant playing behind C.J. The likelihood of just a three-man bench doesn’t seem like great roster management either, so thinking both players are on the outside looking in would strike me as odd.

    We’ll see how each player is deployed throughout February and into March. At 33 and off a down year, Duda could be cooked and this all becomes clearer. For now, though, the speculation is all we’ve got.

    Ted Schwerzler - A blogger for nearly a decade, passion for baseball and the Minnesota Twins runs deep.
    Follow Ted Schwerzler on Twitter: tlschwerz

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    Thrylos

    Thrylos 8,325

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted (edited)

     

     

    Cron doesn’t have traditional platoon splits. He owned a .767 OPS vs righties and a .930 OPS vs lefties in 2018. While it’s obvious that he performs better against southpaws, the power was almost entirely skewed the opposite way. Only eight of his 30 home runs came against lefties, though the doubles production was more evenly distributed. As an arbitration player, Cron will make $4.8 million this season.

     

     

    This is actually the best argument for why Duda is not necessary as a platoon player on the MLB roster, along with the fact that Cruz had .819 OPS vs RHP and .932 OPS vs LHP.  That takes care of the 2 spots that Duda can play.

     

    If Austin is to make the club it will be in a PT role mainly PH and OF (and occasional 1B and DH.)  His main competition will be Cave and maybe Astrudillo, both of whom have options.  Austin is better that Grossman at OF btw.  He is a serviceable corner OF.  The fact that Molitor did not play him there is on Molitor not on Austin.  In the minors he played OF in twice as many games (327) as 1B (168).

     

    I see Duda as Chris Carter's replacement for Rochester.

    Edited by Thrylos
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    Danchat

    Danchat 11,131

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Yeah, no thanks. Duda's best baseball is behind him, and Austin's is ahead of him, I believe, and in a season where the Twins aren't going all in, it makes a lot more sense to try out Austin than Duda. If something happens to Cron, Duda would be a decent replacement for him... but I'd much rather have Austin on the roster.

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    jkcarew

    jkcarew 3,876

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    If Austin is to make the club it will be in a PT role mainly PH and OF (and occasional 1B and DH.)  His main competition will be Cave and maybe Astrudillo, both of whom have options.  Austin is better that Grossman at OF btw.  He is a serviceable corner OF.  The fact that Molitor did not play him there is on Molitor not on Austin.  In the minors he played OF in twice as many games (327) as 1B (168).

    Three different major league managers have seen fit to give Austin 3 of his 65 (most with the Yankees) MLB starts in the outfield. And the last time he played more games in the OF than 1B/DH was the 2015 season. Since then, very few appearances in the OF, and even fewer starts there. Those numbers would suggest that he’s proven to a number of managers at various levels that he’s not a serviceable outfielder.

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    Thrylos

    Thrylos 8,325

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted (edited)

     

    Three different major league managers have seen fit to give Austin 3 of his 65 (most with the Yankees) MLB starts in the outfield. And the last time he played more games in the OF than 1B/DH was the 2015 season. Since then, very few appearances in the OF, and even fewer starts there. Those numbers would suggest that he’s proven to a number of managers at various levels that he’s not a serviceable outfielder.

     

     

    Gardner, Judge, Hicks, Stanton on one vs. Bird on the other.

    Of course the Yankees chose 1B for Austin last season.  

     

    This does not say as much about Austin as about their other options in other positions.  In the high minors he ended up in the same teams as Jake Cave,Mason Williams, Clint Frazier, and Billy McKinney (the last 3 top 100 prospects at several seasons.)

     

    It is a numbers and opportunity game.

    Edited by Thrylos
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    jkcarew

    jkcarew 3,876

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Gardner, Judge, Hicks, Stanton on one vs. Bird on the other.

    Of course the Yankees chose 1B for Austin last season.

     

    This does not say as much about Austin as about their other options in other positions. In the high minors he ended up in the same teams as Jake Cave,Mason Williams, Clint Frazier, and Billy McKinney (the last 3 top 100

    prospects at several seasons.)

     

    It is a numbers and opportunity game.

    Hope you’re right. Remain sceptical.

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    jkcarew

    jkcarew 3,876

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    I think you are both right. There was no opportunity in NY in the OF, and he's probably not great out there....

    As for here? Well, they didn't play Astudillo at catcher the first time.....

    Yeah, certainly going to be hard with that organization to crack into the everyday lineup in the outfield. But I'd think Austin would have been out there more than he was...there's always some opportunity. Gardner has been terrible against lefties for some time now. But he was continuing to get the play in left, before Stanton and during periods when Hicks was out, etc.

     

    Honestly, though...I have no idea how good or bad Austin would be in the OF...only suggesting that I think that ship has past. If it could work out, they should be looking at it, as it would be great to have a legitimate right-handed bat out there when needed. And so far, it's been just as difficult to discern whether Rooker will be considered a MLB outfielder.

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    Don Walcott

    Don Walcott 3,705

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    This is actually the best argument for why Duda is not necessary as a platoon player on the MLB roster, along with the fact that Cruz had .819 OPS vs RHP and .932 OPS vs LHP.  That takes care of the 2 spots that Duda can play.

     

    If Austin is to make the club it will be in a PT role mainly PH and OF (and occasional 1B and DH.)  His main competition will be Cave and maybe Astrudillo, both of whom have options.  Austin is better that Grossman at OF btw.  He is a serviceable corner OF.  The fact that Molitor did not play him there is on Molitor not on Austin.  In the minors he played OF in twice as many games (327) as 1B (168).

     

    I see Duda as Chris Carter's replacement for Rochester.

    Setting the bar kind of low there. I hope he can play OF better than Grossman.

     

    We definitely need a right-handed bat to sub for Kepler or Rosario occasionally against tough left-handers more than we need another lefty bat.

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    Doomtints

    Doomtints 2,816

  • Verified Member

    • Posted (edited)

    I like Duda, but:

    1. I don't know what this signing does for him
    2. I don't know what this signing does for this team

    This just seems like a mismatch / source of conflict for everybody involved.

     

    Though it's fun to say we have The Dude / The Big Lebowski on the team, likely he's only going to be around for the blink of an eye. One year tops with an over/under of perhaps spring training only.....

    Edited by Doomtints
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    Riverbrian

    Riverbrian 32,096

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    Gardner, Judge, Hicks, Stanton on one vs. Bird on the other.

    Of course the Yankees chose 1B for Austin last season.

     

    This does not say as much about Austin as about their other options in other positions. In the high minors he ended up in the same teams as Jake Cave,Mason Williams, Clint Frazier, and Billy McKinney (the last 3 top 100 prospects at several seasons.)

     

    It is a numbers and opportunity game.

    Yep... that’s why the possibility can’t be dismissed. Players are deployed based on availability all the time. Nick Senzel is learning OF as we speak because the Reds have Suarez and Scooter at 3B and 2B. The list of these type of position shifts is lengthy.

     

    No idea if he can play OF but playing 1B with Yankees would not be a trustworthy indicator in my opinion.

     

    Do I trust Molitor usage with the Twins as an indicator. I absolutely do not.

     

    Austin should have received OF time in September. He did not. I’m not ready to blame Tyler Austin’s ability for that.

     

    Lucas Duda could certainly push Austin out the door if Austin isn’t capable at a different position. Casualties like that happen all the time.

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    Jim Hahn

    Jim Hahn 230

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted (edited)

    I actually find Cron, Austin, and Duda rather unappealing options for 1b. All are one dimensional sluggers. All will strike out, a lot. None will hit for average or walk much. None will provide provide much defense at first. None provide any positional flexibility. Austin is likely to worse than Grossman, probably similar to Astudillo in the outfield. You need to be able to run to be any good in the of.

     

    I would prefer a more complete hitter than any of these guys at first. It wouldn't hurt if the guy could catch the ball too, given the rest of the infield.

     

    Since we are not going to get what I want, I expect what we get is Cron. The other 2 get dfa'd with maybe 1 of them ending up at AAA. The backups at first are Kepler and Sano.

    Edited by Jim Hahn
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    ahart10

    ahart10 264

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    I actually find Cron, Austin, and Duda rather unappealing options for 1b. All are one dimensional sluggers. All will strike out, a lot. None will hit for average or walk much. None will provide provide much defense at first. None provide any positional flexibility. Austin is likely to worse than Grossman, probably similar to Astudillo in the outfield. You need to be able to run to be any good in the of.

     

    I would prefer a more complete hitter than any of these guys at first. It wouldn't hurt if the guy could catch the ball too, given the rest of the infield.

     

    Since we are not going to get what I want, I expect what we get is Cron. The other 2 get dfa'd with maybe 1 of them ending up at AAA. The backups at first are Kepler and Sano.

    100%, and the FO wasn’t dealt any of these guys. These are the cards they chose. It would of been nice to get Mauer on a one year deal or Moustakas short term. Micheal Brantley has picked up a first base glove for Houston. Marwin or Manny could’ve created a shuffle. I’d rather give Astudillo a shot there than Duda.

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    Riverbrian

    Riverbrian 32,096

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    Micheal Brantley has picked up a first base glove for Houston. 

     

    Flexibility is a natural by-product of depth. 

     

    The Astros have depth and they strive to keep themselves deep. Lose Marwin... Make a trade for Diaz... Problem solved. 

     

    As they stand right now... they have Springer, Reddick, Marisnick, Kemp, Brantley and even Bregman who can play OF plus this Tucker Kid who is knocking on the door.

     

    They have Gurriel, White and Brantley to play 1B. Altuve, Diaz and Kemp to play 2B. Bregman, Gurriel and Diaz to play 3B. Correa, Bregman and Diaz who can play SS. 

     

    They have purchased insurance for everything. They are bulletproof.  

     

    Michael Cuddyer was asked at the Winter Meltdown about his playing multiple positions and he said something along the lines of "I'm a Ball Player". 

     

    Austin, Cron, Duda... sign as many as you like but in the end... They can't all play 1B. Someone will have to track some flyballs or we end up being a team that has extreme depth at 1B and lacking depth every place else. 

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    Doomtints

    Doomtints 2,816

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    I actually find Cron, Austin, and Duda rather unappealing options for 1b.

     

    Austin could be OK, but yes the story is pretty much written for the other two. 

     

    And yeah, right now they are all of a similar profile. They could all swap uniforms and no one would notice.

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    ChrisKnutson

    ChrisKnutson 502

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    Duda’s alright, but Wieters, Iglesias, Buchholz, Harrison, Phillips, Bautista, Ramirez, Casilla, Morrison, Span, and or Ramos could all still be possibly had on a minor league deal. Who’s next??

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