What a Luis Arraez Contract Extension Would Look Like

Arraez, 24 in April, could be positioned to become Super Two-eligible in 2022, depending both on where that line falls and whether the renegotiated collective bargaining agreement ahead of us alters the nature of that designation. That’s a wrinkle in any negotiations about a deal to keep Arraez around beyond his age-28 season in 2025, but it’s almost the only one. In other respects, he’s a straightforward case with a clear recent precedent. The Twins have ample reason to want to retain him, and a good bit of leverage at the bargaining table.

Though he’s still only amassed 487 plate appearances in the big leagues, Arraez is a .331/.390/.430 career hitter, and has proved himself to be one of the best contact hitters in baseball. He’s earned the nickname “La Regadera,” or “The Sprinkler,” for his astounding ability to hit the ball cleanly to all fields. On the other hand, it’s become clear that his defensive value will be persistently limited. As unfair as the comparison is to any player so young and inexperienced, the profile Arraez is carving out in the big leagues is eerily evocative of that of Rod Carew. To properly contextualize that, of course, one must understand that Carew would be a bit less highly rated and a bit more limited in the modern game, because of the changes in the way the game is played between his time and now, but it’s an informative lens to keep in mind. If you believe that much in Arraez’s hit tool — and there is absolutely every reason to do so — then he’s worth keeping around into his 30s.

Thanks in large part to his injury history, though, it’s taken Arraez a long time to establish himself in the majors. He signed way back in November of 2013, and notably, he only got a $40,000 signing bonus at that time. Baseball has not yet made him truly, enduringly rich, and because of his age and skill set, he runs a real risk of never reaching the point at which that changes. The Twins could absorb that risk and relieve him of it, but get a major bargain on his prime-aged seasons in return.

The relevant precedents for an Arraez extension belong to two other infielders who signed as amateur international free agents, but neither is a perfect comp. Ketel Marte was five years from free agency in 2018, when he signed a five-year deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Marte was entering his age-24 season, just as Arraez is now. The deal bought out his full term of club control, with a steady but small salary progression from year to year. It guaranteed him $24 million, and a pair of options (for 2023 and 2024, which would have been his first two free-agent years) gave him the chance to make as much as $20 million more.

Marte had signed for $100,000 seven and a half years before signing the deal. He was due to be Super Two-eligible after 2018. That all places him in a good position to compare to Arraez. However, Marte is an extremely dynamic, switch-hitting, athletic player, who provided significant defensive upside. On the other hand, he had not yet demonstrated anything close to the level of offensive competence Arraez has already shown in the big leagues.

A year later, Ozzie Albies signed a seven-year deal with Atlanta, buying out his final five seasons of club control, plus two free-agent years. The total commitment was just $35 million, as he was given an even slower salary escalation en route to would-be free agency. Atlanta even secured two club options, each worth $7 million, at the end of that deal, and one of those is just a $3-million decision after the buyout is factored in. That deal was the most outrageously team-friendly of a spring replete with extensions that favored clubs, and it can’t be used as an especially serious comparison point in terms of total dollars. Nor is the length a good reflection of what the Twins and Arraez might consider, since Albies signed his deal at age 22, and is another speedy switch-hitter with a plus glove.

Still, these two deals provide a basic framework. A pact between Arraez and the Twins would start by bumping his 2021 salary from the scheduled salary just above the league minimum (and just under $600,000) to something like $1 million, with another $1 million added as a signing bonus. In 2022, since he’s a borderline case to become Super Two-eligible, he would make somewhere between $1 million and $4 million. (Call it $3 million, with $2 million of that as a bonus, shielding him from the risk of a work stoppage.) In 2023, Arraez would get a bump to about $5 million, and in 2024, he’d make $7 million. In 2025 and 2026, he’d make $8.5 million each year, and the Twins could hold a $10-million option on his services for 2027, with a $1-million buyout.

In total, that’s a six-year deal guaranteeing Arraez $35 million. If the Twins exercised their option, it would pay him $44 million over seven seasons. That’s a bit more fair (and less predatory) than the deals signed by Marte and Albies, yet it gives the Twins both cost certainty and real upside. It lets Arraez hit free agency at a reasonable age, but assures the Twins of the right to keep him one or two years longer than they could without signing. It even keeps his salaries low over the next two seasons, while Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sanó, and Josh Donaldson are making big money on the infield, and allows him to grow in pay as his role is likely to grow from 2023 onward.

Again, this contract only makes sense if one sees Arraez as one of the game’s better pure hitters. That’s fine, because that’s precisely what he is. The Twins should lock him up, so that they can pencil him in at the top of their order for years to come.

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