Week in Review: Boom or Bust

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 69 | CLE 6, MIN 5: Pagán Slips Up, Twins Blow Late Lead
Game 70 | CLE 11, MIN 10: Bullpen Melts Down Again in Crusher
Game 71 | MIN 1, CLE 0: Smeltzer and Gordon Stave Off Sweep
Game 72 | COL 1, MIN 0: Lineup No Match for Márquez
Game 73 | MIN 6, COL 0: Twins Get Payback in Shutout Win
Game 74 | MIN 6, COL 3: Buxton Flirts with Cycle, Scores 3 Times

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 6/20 through Sun, 6/26
***
Record Last Week: 3-3 (Overall: 41-33)
Run Differential Last Week: +7 (Overall: +32)
Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (2.0 GA)

NEWS & NOTES

The week ended with a piece of bombshell news, when we learned that Wes Johnson, Twins pitching coach since the 2019 season, will be leaving the team abruptly next week to join Louisiana State University in the same role. Minnesota's assistant pitching coach Pete Maki will step up to take over Johnson's vacant spot.

This is a legitimately stunning turn of events, and one we'll surely learn a lot more about in the coming days. For now, I recommend reading John Bonnes' story above to get the details as we know them. Here we'll get aim to catch up on everything else.

Just as it ended, the past week could've hardly started in a more deflating way. The Cleveland Guardians arrived in town for a much-anticipated battle atop the division, and the action at Target Field was as advertised – three one-run games full of fireworks, drama, and big swings. Unfortunately, the Twins bore the brunt of those swings in the first two games, with the bullpen twice blowing late leads as Cleveland stormed into sole possession of first place.

Adding to the bad vibes was the revelation that Byron Buxton, who sat out the second game of this key series, had in fact been totally unavailable due to overwhelming soreness in his right knee. He remained sidelined for Thursday and Friday, but the Twins kept him active, insisting that consultations with multiple specialists led them to believe they're doing the right thing.

It's hard to disagree after Buxton returned with a bang on Saturday and Sunday, legging out two triples among his four hits. He scored three times in a three-run victory to end the week.

The turnaround in Buxton's situation – from grimly depressing to relatively encouraging – personified the course of Minnesota's week as a whole. After the crushing setbacks in those first two Cleveland games, the Twins won three of the next four and by the end of Sunday, they were back atop the division by two games.

Before we dive into the good and bad more deeply, let's cover a few roster developments that took place over the past week, starting with a potentially significant one:

Since hitting his last home run on June 10th, Trevor Larnach had gone 5-for-35 with zero extra-base hits over the next two weeks, with his potent hitting prowess going completely amiss. On Saturday, we got a clue as to why. Larnach was placed on the injured list with a core injury that had evidently been bothering him for some time. Doesn't sound like it'll be a short absence.

He was replaced on the roster by Mark Contreras, who got a start and made a really nice defensive play, although he's still looking for his first major-league hit. 

On Sunday, Joe Smith landed on the IL with Jovani Moran swapping into the bullpen as his replacement. Given that Smith went through a bit of an acrobatic act in his last appearance, loading the bases with no outs in a one-run game before managing to escape unscathed, it seems fitting his injury was announced as upper trapezius tightness.

Josh Winder's rehab assignment came to an end and he was optioned to Triple-A, though he's expected to come up and start a game in Tuesday's upcoming doubleheader. His return will be more than welcomed by this pitching staff. 

HIGHLIGHTS

Alex Kirilloff's return has certainly been welcomed by the Twins offense. As hoped, the sweet-swinging lefty has looked like a totally different player this time around, after working to get straightened out in the minors. He didn't deliver a ton of hits last week, but made them count, driving in seven runs on five singles and two doubles. This lineup just has a different vibe with his bat in it.

The continued emergence of Carlos Correa also serves to reinforce the legitimacy of the Twins offense. He had another excellent week, notching hits in every game on the way to a 9-for-25 week that included a double and a pair of homers. Correa has raised his OPS by nearly 100 points over the past month, shaking off a so-so start to deliver on the offensive promise that attracted the Twins to him. 

Oddly, his defensive numbers are way down, but Correa has clearly been a major asset and he's also back to playing everyday after easing back into action following his time on the COVID list.

Ryan Jeffers had an excellent week as he revives his bat from the depths of a brutal slump. In four starts behind the plate, he went 5-for-12 with three doubles. Perhaps most impressively, he drew three walks against only three strikeouts, reversing a trend of nonexistent discipline that played a major role in his lack of production in May and the first half of June.

We've been here before, and typically Jeffers' brief hot streaks been followed by extended droughts to more than offset them. If he can buck that pattern and keep making noise at the plate with any kind of consistency, it'll be a huge difference-maker for this offense.

In the rotation, Devin Smeltzer and Chris Archer have been big difference-makers – unexpected and much-needed ones at that. 

Smeltzer played the role of stopper in Wednesday's finale against Cleveland, shutting down a lineup that had its way with Twins pitching for two days. A bounce-back showing from the bullpen, along with a solo homer from Nick Gordon, supported Smeltzer's six shutout innings en route to his fourth win of the season.

Meanwhile, Archer's reclamation tour continued on Saturday with five innings of one-hit, shutout ball against Colorado. He struck out five and walked one in the tidy outing, lowering his ERA to 3.14.

Through 14 starts, Archer has yet to pitch into the sixth inning, but he's been about as good as one could ask for with that caveat. In five June starts, he's posted a 1.57 ERA while holding opponents to a .169 batting average. This at a time where the rotation has largely been without its best two starters.

Now, to be clear, the underlying metrics for Archer remain very ugly. The gap between his shiny ERA this month and his mediocre 4.03 FIP illustrate the degree to which he's outperforming expected outcomes. But ... you've got to think the approach being used with him is playing a big part. 

Statcast numbers aside, the 33-year-old is more than getting the job done, and most importantly, he's healthy after pitching fewer than 20 innings the past two years. "I'm super grateful how Rocco is handling this whole situation," Archer told reporters. "I couldn't be happier with how everything is going."

It's noteworthy that the Twins and Archer have a mutual option at $10 million for next season. These are rarely exercised, but in this case? Sure feels possible if things continue as they've gone. But now Archer will have to try and keep it rolling through a sudden change in pitching coach.

LOWLIGHTS

Nearly one month ago, on May 30th, I wrote that the Twins bullpen was teetering on the brink of disaster, citing the ominous contrast of a Win Probability Added ranking fourth-best in baseball and a Wins Above Replacement ranking second-worst. 

Since then, Minnesota's bullpen ranks 20th in WPA, with a negative overall impact. The chickens have come to roost. They were flying around everywhere on Tuesday and Wednesday night, with a pair of very winnable games slipping away in highly frustrating fashion.

As painfully easy as it was to see this coming, it's all the more painful to recognize a shortage of clear solutions. Want to shout for dismissal of the offending parties? Simple enough. Confidently identifying better options. Much trickier.

Emilio Pagán tops that list of offending parties. He came on in the eighth inning of Tuesday's game against Cleveland, just after Luis Arráez electrified the building with a go-ahead three-run homer. Pagán proceeded to put a runner on and then serve an absolute meatball to Franmil Reyes, who promptly erased a two-run deficit. 

The following day, Pagán seemingly was on track to rebound, striking out the side in a clean eighth. Rocco Baldelli tried to get another inning out of him, and that didn't go well. Pagán opened the following frame by giving up three straight hits, opening the floodgates on a four-run ninth that turned a three-run lead into a one-run loss.

Pagán's fastball has actually been pretty effective, holding opponents to a .190 average, and his splitter has been downright excellent, with a 39.4% whiff rate. But for whatever reason he's turned to the cutter more often (29.3%) than the splitter (22.3%), and that cutter has been horrendous. Opponents are slugging .724 against it, with three homers including the above moonshot by Reyes.

Also contributing to the bullpen's woes was Jharel Cotton, who gave up three runs as part of the late-game collapse on Wednesday, coughing up a pair of homers. Tyler Duffey pitched twice in relatively low-leverage situations (down a run on Friday, up three on Sunday) and while he didn't give up any runs he didn't look good, allowing two walks and three hits in three innings. He was bailed out by three double plays.

As good as Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax have been – and they were both awesome last week, even if Jax was tagged with both losses against Cleveland – the Twins bullpen cannot sustain with them forced to shoulder so much of the load. 

You could tell Baldelli was making efforts to protect Jax a bit on Wednesday – he'd thrown 27 pitches the previous night, and 16 two days earlier – by sending Pagán out for another inning. Pagán's failure meant Jax ended up having to pitch again anyway, and the Twins lost anyway. 

Duran, who pitched 16 total innings last year due to elbow issues, was called upon three times last week, and asked to get more than three outs in two of those. 

These are important young arms. They need to be protected. Veterans like Pagán and Duffey aren't getting it done and the possible negative impacts go beyond tallies in the loss column. 

Of course, it would also help if any of the starting pitchers were providing length. Archer's aforementioned workload limitations, much like Buxton's frequent days off, are acceptable as the byproduct of a plan that is delivering its intended results. It's tougher to accept Sonny Gray failing to get an out in the fifth inning on Tuesday, or Joe Ryan losing the groove from his stellar start to the season. 

Ryan just hasn't looked the same since coming back from a lengthy stint on the COVID list, with 10 earned runs allowed in 15 ⅔ innings over three starts. The poised craftsman who efficiently carved up opposing lineups through mid-May hasn't been present of late as Ryan has labored and missed his spots. On Sunday he needed 102 pitches to get through five innings against Colorado, striking out just one. 

This rotation needs more from its top two arms. It probably also needs at least one other high-end arm added to that group if championship contention is a true aspiration. 

TRENDING STORYLINE

As we've established, the Twins could really use some impact help in the bullpen. While they're short on potential answers, there are a couple of promising – albeit volatile – possibilities in the pipeline.

First, you've got Jorge Alcalá, who is set to restart his rehab assignment next week after pausing due to elbow stiffness. If he can eventually come back throwing like he was in the final two months last year, when he posted a 0.96 ERA and 24-to-3 K/BB ratio over 18 ⅔ innings while throwing pure fire, Alcalá could be a transformative force. But the precarious situation with his arm makes it difficult to get hopes up.

Meanwhile, pitching prospect Matt Canterino – himself dealing with elbow issues – is ready to start working back toward game action after a positive visit with a specialist, according to Darren Wolfson.

For the most part, there aren't many true game-changing arms within range of the majors occupying the Twins system, unless you're especially optimistic about someone like Yennier Cano or Moran. 

Alcalá and Canterino are a different story. They have what it takes to dominate in the late innings. Although neither is close to entering the big-league bullpen fold at this moment, it's definitely a relief to hear both are again taking steps in the right direction after some scary hiccups.

LOOKING AHEAD

If the Twins are feeling sour about the way things went down at Target Field against the Guardians last week, they'll have a fast chance to settle the score as they travel of Cleveland for a five-game series against their (present) closest challenger in the division. 

These jam-packed stretches of the schedule, made necessary by the delayed start to the season, are challenging to endure – especially when you're traveling. The last time Minnesota experienced such a gauntlet, they dropped four of five in Detroit against the Tigers. Needless to say, a similar result in Cleveland would hurt.

The follow-up series back home against Baltimore would ordinarily seem like a nice respite, but the Orioles have actually been playing pretty good ball of late. 

Eight games and a pitching coach transition (set to take place after the Cleveland series) lie ahead in the next seven days. Buckle up.

MONDAY, 6/27: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Sonny Gray v. RHP Triston McKenzie
TUESDAY, 6/28 (G1): TWINS @ GUARDIANS – LHP Devin Smeltzer v. RHP Zach Plesac
TUESDAY, 6/28 (G2): TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Josh Winder v. TBD
WEDNESDAY, 6/29: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Dylan Bundy v. RHP Cal Quantrill
THURSDAY, 6/30: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Chris Archer v. RHP Shane Bieber
FRIDAY, 7/1: ORIOLES @ TWINS – RHP Spenser Watkins v. RHP Joe Ryan
SATURDAY, 7/2: ORIOLES @ TWINS – RHP Jordan Lyles v. RHP Sonny Gray
SUNDAY, 7/3: ORIOLES @ TWINS – RHP Tyler Wells v. LHP Devin Smeltzer