Week in Review: Second Half Statement

Schoop hit well earlier in the season, but his flaws concerning pitch selection are coming to fruition at an inopportune time. The Twins had a few chances to sweep the series but didn't hit particularly well with RISP in the finale. Garver's AB after the Arraez double was equally futile, especially down a run. Oh well, we pushed Cleveland back a game. That was the overall goal.

Bring up both Thorpe and Smeltzer for the second half push. Put both of them in the bullpen, with the option of using either for long-inning relief or as a spot starter. Smeltzer definitely looks like he can handle the pressure - he just goes out there and competes. Thorpe's first start looked just fine, and I have no trouble thinking he can get outs from the pen, too. Two good lefties, just waiting for a chance. 

After that, you've still got Poppen, Stewart, and Romero. Live arms, every one.

Oh, and don't let's forget Cody Stashak. Effective relief pitcher, seeks team with need for same. 

Don't sell the farm. Use the farm!

Nick, nice summary, as usual.  A few comments on your comments:

1. In my blog on suggestions for a high profile trade for Syndergaard, I pointed out the glaring need for an ace, especially if we are to break a string of failures going back to 2002 in advancing beyond Rd. 1 of the playoffs.  In a game that could have buried Cleveland for good, Berrios failed miserably.  This follows a pattern in the last couple of years where he seems to wilt in pressure games.  He is nowhere near an ace the Twins need!

2. I, too, am concerned about the team's all or nothing offense.  They can pile it on in outbursts but seem to lack the professional clutch hitting necessary to win the close games.  This is one reason I, as well as others on TD, are suggesting trading Sano, despite all his power, in a trade to bring back a quality #1 pitcher.  I would rather see more consistent players like Gonzales and Arraez in the lineup than Sano.  With other power hitters, Sano's value might be more useful as bait in a big trade.  My idea to get Thor would be to add Gibson and Castro with Sano and some minor leaguers in a package deal.  Seems to me like a win-win for both teams, albeit risky, no doubt.

3. Dependence on Rogers is bound to boomerang over a long season.  Why Molitor wastes him with a four run lead in the ninth is totally mystifying.  May continues to be prone to give up the big hit at the most inopportune times, despite his stellar stats.  This narrative simply adds to the need for bringing in a shutdown closer sooner rather than later.  The Twins played well this weekend but could have squeezed the life out of an Indian's squad that was on the ropes in the 7th inning of Game 3.

I hope the FO looks at this team critically and uses the trade deadline to bolster a good team that is missing some essential cogs to elevate them to WS contention.  Go big or go home!!

As it pertains to Schoop, is there any chance the front office looks to deal him since there seems to be no reason to anticipate Schoop returning to the Twins next year? What kind of return could he fetch? (I would also be interested to read an article from the TD writers about the trade value of every guy on the roster).

I didn't have a chance to watch the game yesterday, but I have gotten the sense that Gibson is too dependent on his sinker the first time through the order, and does not throw his best pitch (slider) enough. I think he wants to try to save that look for the second trip through the order, but he needs to throw more sliders in my opinion.

Great weekly summary, again!

Edit: I didn't get to watch the game Friday either, when Gibson actually was pitching.

Mr. Hands, I mean Max Kepler, sticking it to Bauer was awesome.  The self-proclaimed 2019 Cy Young award winner is going to be feasting on a whole murder of crow by season's end. Leading the league in only innings and hit batters doesn't typically result in Cy Young awards.  He may not even be top 10.

Nick, nice summary, as usual. A few comments on your comments:

 

1. In my blog on suggestions for a high profile trade for Syndergaard, I pointed out the glaring need for an ace, especially if we are to break a string of failures going back to 2002 in advancing beyond Rd. 1 of the playoffs. In a game that could have buried Cleveland for good, Berrios failed miserably. This follows a pattern in the last couple of years where he seems to wilt in pressure games. He is nowhere near an ace the Twins need!

 

2. I, too, am concerned about the team's all or nothing offense. They can pile it on in outbursts but seem to lack the professional clutch hitting necessary to win the close games. This is one reason I, as well as others on TD, are suggesting trading Sano, despite all his power, in a trade to bring back a quality #1 pitcher. I would rather see more consistent players like Gonzales and Arraez in the lineup than Sano. With other power hitters, Sano's value might be more useful as bait in a big trade. My idea to get Thor would be to add Gibson and Castro with Sano and some minor leaguers in a package deal. Seems to me like a win-win for both teams, albeit risky, no doubt.

 

3. Dependence on Rogers is bound to boomerang over a long season. Why Molitor wastes him with a four run lead in the ninth is totally mystifying. May continues to be prone to give up the big hit at the most inopportune times, despite his stellar stats. This narrative simply adds to the need for bringing in a shutdown closer sooner rather than later. The Twins played well this weekend but could have squeezed the life out of an Indian's squad that was on the ropes in the 7th inning of Game 3.

 

I hope the FO looks at this team critically and uses the trade deadline to bolster a good team that is missing some essential cogs to elevate them to WS contention. Go big or go home!!

1. He had a bad game. I wouldn’t say he’s “nowhere near” ace level. He’s close. He ranks 14th in fWAR in MLB, 7th in AL and top 30 in MLB in FIP. No one is calling him Max Scherzer, but he isn’t Lance Lynn either. Oh wait...

2. Why is any non-contending team going to trade for impending free agents Kyle Gibson and/or Jason Castro? To get a controllable ace caliber pitcher, a team needs to give up considerable controllable talent. Even Sano has only two more controllable season. Unless the minor leaguers you are adding are Lewis and Thorpe, It’s not going to even start a conversation.

3. Pretty much any reliever can make a bad pitch. By and large, May has been outstanding dating back to mid April. There aren’t that many out there that will be much better and the ones that are are the ones 10-12 teams are after. The Twins clearly need to cull the bottom 3 of the pen. But the top is pretty good.

My biggest worry is Rogers.  Can he handle the frequency of use for the rest of the season.  I know why Baldelli calls on him, but we either need Parker to step up or we need another pitcher we can rely on the way we do Rogers.  

I am fine with the idea of bringing up minor league arms, but we have to try them all, regardless of league level until we find what we need. 

As it pertains to Schoop, is there any chance the front office looks to deal him since there seems to be no reason to anticipate Schoop returning to the Twins next year? What kind of return could he fetch? (I would also be interested to read an article from the TD writers about the trade value of every guy on the roster).

 

 

Schoop has very little value in a trade.  2nd base is never a position of need for most teams and unless they are huge offensive upside they will not demand much.  If a contending team is looking to sell, who would want him?  Up and coming teams would not want him as no control and would need to resign him anyways, something they could do in offseason if they wanted to.  For contending teams not many would want to add him for the same reasons the Twins would deal him.  Plus what we would get is not much to help this year.  If he is dealt it would be to mid-level contending team that really needs something, and will give up at best a B level prospect.  

I predict he is either a throw in on a deal for money purposes, or he is released.  His numbers are reminding me of Trevor Plouffe in his big seasons with Twins, kills fastballs in blow out situations, but when pitcher really trying to bear down and get him, he will strike out. The only thing he has is his ability to hit HR, but I will never want him up when need runs. 

Nick, nice summary, as usual.  A few comments on your comments:

 

1. In my blog on suggestions for a high profile trade for Syndergaard, I pointed out the glaring need for an ace, especially if we are to break a string of failures going back to 2002 in advancing beyond Rd. 1 of the playoffs.  In a game that could have buried Cleveland for good, Berrios failed miserably.  This follows a pattern in the last couple of years where he seems to wilt in pressure games.  He is nowhere near an ace the Twins need!

 

2. I, too, am concerned about the team's all or nothing offense.  They can pile it on in outbursts but seem to lack the professional clutch hitting necessary to win the close games.  This is one reason I, as well as others on TD, are suggesting trading Sano, despite all his power, in a trade to bring back a quality #1 pitcher.  I would rather see more consistent players like Gonzales and Arraez in the lineup than Sano.  With other power hitters, Sano's value might be more useful as bait in a big trade.  My idea to get Thor would be to add Gibson and Castro with Sano and some minor leaguers in a package deal.  Seems to me like a win-win for both teams, albeit risky, no doubt.

 

3. Dependence on Rogers is bound to boomerang over a long season.  Why Molitor wastes him with a four run lead in the ninth is totally mystifying.  May continues to be prone to give up the big hit at the most inopportune times, despite his stellar stats.  This narrative simply adds to the need for bringing in a shutdown closer sooner rather than later.  The Twins played well this weekend but could have squeezed the life out of an Indian's squad that was on the ropes in the 7th inning of Game 3.

 

I hope the FO looks at this team critically and uses the trade deadline to bolster a good team that is missing some essential cogs to elevate them to WS contention.  Go big or go home!!

Marwin Gonzalez is essentially Miguel Sano, except he has more defensive versatility, he doesn't strike out as much, and he has a lot less power.  In high leverage situations, Marwin has a .648 OPS and 80 wRC+; Sano is at .728 and 83.

Also, has anyone checked  in the offshore magnetic boot prison lately?  It would seem that one Rocco Baldelli might have had his visage stolen.

Marwin Gonzalez is essentially Miguel Sano, except he has more defensive versatility, he doesn't strike out as much, and he has a lot less power.  In high leverage situations, Marwin has a .648 OPS and 80 wRC+; Sano is at .728 and 83.

 

Also, has anyone checked  in the offshore magnetic boot prison lately?  It would seem that one Rocco Baldelli might have had his visage stolen.

I gotta know what you're referencing here.

Arraez and Schoop are practically polar opposites.  If you could somehow meld the two together, I think you'd have an MVP candidate.

I would offer to take Schoop on a long fishing excursion while you guys find a suitable 2b replacement. He cant seem to hit pitches in the strike zone right now so has has decided to try hitting the ones out of the strike zone instead. No luck there either. Futile.

I would offer to take Schoop on a long fishing excursion while you guys find a suitable 2b replacement. He cant seem to hit pitches in the strike zone right now so has has decided to try hitting the ones out of the strike zone instead. No luck there either. Futile.

I think the suitable replacement is Luis Arraez. The question is whether to commit to him now and risk losing the depth that keeping Schoop provides or wait until 2020 and shuttle Arraez up and down as needed.

I think Schoop has more value to this team than Morin or Magill and if somehow all off the position players are healthy when Rosario and Cron return I would go with 12 pitchers and DFA Morin.

They made it through this Cleveland series using 11 pitchers. If they lose Morin, I have as much confidence in some of the pitchers in AAA.

Two factors might work against Arraez as the season progresses. He won’t likely sustain his plus .400 BABIP. Teams may adjust in both the way they pitch to him and shift (or not). He may endure some struggle that he has not encountered in the minors and it is hard to predict how he will handle the struggle.

I'm Ok selling off the livestock, but agree with the Thorpe/Smeltzer/Stashak takes.

 

I'm a little worried that the Twins are going to find that the bullpen is all so perfectly mediocre that the decisions regarding it will be difficult to make. Rogers is the only guy who needs to be kept, but there's not any particular guy who's in imminent need of replacement.

agreed, here is how I look at it. (in close games)

Who do I trust in the 8th and 9th inning - Rogers

Who do I trust in the 7th and 8th inning - Harper

Who do I trust in the 6th and 7th inning - May/Parker

Who do I trust in the 5th and 6th inning - Duffey/Littell

Which means Morin, Magill and everybody else needs to be replaced so there are more names in the 7th through 9th innings.

IMO

With Rogers developing all that trade value, isn't it about time for the FO to make a trade for prospects with potential and up side that maybe just maybe might if we are really really lucky be someone like Rogers in 3 to 5 years? You know, like the Ryan Pressly deal?

Here's to a great second half, some fortifying trades, and a team that wins at least an average of 3 of 5 games, and doesn't turn into a .500 team for the second half, as seems to have happened the last month. 

Great article, Nick. 

Trevor May has a chance to be the next Taylor Rogers. He could fail - he walks too many hitters to be a sure thing. But he has shown the stuff to be a shutdown RP. Add one experienced back-end bullpen guy, and they should be in good shape. Could add another middle reliever too.

Luis Arraez needs to get most of the reps at 2B. I don't say this lightly. Schoop is experienced, smart and a solid defender. OTOH, the Twins need someone getting on base, even if the opposing pitcher is really good. Arraez does that and he's only 22 years old. He doesn't seem overwhelmed by anything, so let's see what he can do. Love that he's turned on a few balls too. 

May below Harper? And at the same level as Parker??        

Harper has lower WHIP then May, higher WAR and has pitched more than May.

It was a stretch to find another pitcher I trust in the 8th inning, so in reality Harper belongs in the 6 and 7 inning with May and Parker belongs in the 5th and 6th with the others.

I am not as high on May as others, about every 4 - 5 games he gives up a run, which is why I don't like him pitching the 8th.

Harper also has allowed a lot of inherited runners to score. Almost half. 13 of 29 to be exact. By far, the worst among pitchers on the roster. Trevor May has allowed 1 of 15 to score.

May below Harper? And at the same level as Parker??        

Yup!

May is a legit setup man, esp if the control improvements we've seen of late are real. That doesn't mean the Twins shouldn't add another but I'm not sure you're getting a much higher-caliber arm out there. 

Legit Set up guy with a 3.79, or if the control improves?

He is a 6th inning guy until he improves, sure he can pitch later in the game and will do good some of time, but not a guy I trust in a game the Twins need.

On this relief staff, he does look like a legit setup guy because they rest are terrible or not very good.

May below Harper? And at the same level as Parker??        

Only stat where may is better than Harper is K/9.  May strikes out 1 more per 9 innings. May walks twice as many batters and his xFIP is 4.45 vs 3.83 for Harper.  May's WHIP is 1.24 vs 1.01 for Harper. For what it's worth Fangraphs has Harper at .7 WAR and May at .4 WAR. bWAR is .8 and .5 respectively.

Harper seems to be at least as valuable / reliable as May. Regardless of how you see it, I don't see the pointy of adding a RP that would not slot both of them.