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  • Week in Review: Moving Forward


    Nick Nelson

    The Twins roster looked very different by the time Tuesday's non-waiver trade deadline arrived, with one-fifth of its occupants shipped out in a flurry of future-focused deals. The exodus included three of Minnesota's longest-tenured players. Now, the team forges ahead with a different look.

    Image courtesy of Brad Rempel, USA TODAY Sports

    Twins Video

    Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 7/30 through Sun, 8/5

    ***

    Record Last Week: 4-2 (Overall: 52-58)

    Run Differential Last Week: +4 (Overall: -17)

    Standing: 2nd Place in AL Central (9.0 GB)

    After trading away Eduardo Escobar and Ryan Pressly the previous week, the Twins completed their mini fire-sale as the deadline bore down, adding Brian Dozier, Lance Lynn and Zach Duke to the departing ranks.

    As a result of all this shuffling, Minnesota brought a number of new young talents into the organization, while shifting their gaze over the final two months to evaluation of remaining assets.

    These "Week in Review" columns will continue to track the team's record and run differential, but going forward, the tone will be dictated more by developments with those key players than by wins and losses. And through that lens, the past week was a pretty encouraging one.

    HIGHLIGHTS

    We're still waiting for Miguel Sano to hit one over the fence (his last home run as a big-leaguer came on May 31st) but he's certainly looking much better at the plate. Last week he went 8-for-20 with three doubles and a 6-to-3 K/BB ratio.

    Perhaps more importantly, Sano has looked spry at third base (where he's made all but one of his starts since the recall, after frequently bouncing to first base and DH earlier in the season) and is running a lot better; I found this tidbit from MLB report Jarrid Denney, tweeted when Sano legged out an infield single on Friday night, rather interesting:

    https://twitter.com/jarrid_denney/status/1025590630054092801

    Initial results suggest that Sano's physical reboot program in Ft. Myers was a real success. Let's keep the positive signs coming.

    Sano's nearest infield neighbor is also looking quite sharp. Jorge Polanco went 7-for-23 this week while starting at shortstop and batting third in every game. Over 29 contests since returning to the fold following a PED suspension, Polanco has a 25-to-13 K/BB ratio and .369 OBP over 122 plate appearances. While the power that emerged in the second half last year hasn't resurfaced, it's very promising to see the 25-year-old taking quality ABs and getting on base. He has also been strikingly good defensively, keeping the errors in check and rating better than ever before on range metrics (albeit in an extremely small sample).

    With Dozier gone and Joe Mauer set to become a free agent, it's anyone's guess what the right side of Minnesota's infield will look like in 2019, but at least we can feel fairly confident at this moment in the outlook for the left side.

    Another key piece for the future, Adalberto Mejia, asserted that he belongs in the big-league rotation on Wednesday by holding Cleveland scoreless on one hit over five innings.

    His only Twins appearance in the first half came amidst unfavorable circumstances on a sweltering weekend at Wrigley Field where the whole team melted into a puddle. In three appearances since, Mejia has allowed only one run over 13 1/3 innings (0.68 ERA). The key for him the rest of the way will be efficiency on the mound; he hasn't completed six innings in any of his MLB three starts this year, and did so just four times in 21 turns last year.

    If he can consistently throw deeper into games over his final ~10 starts while continuing to post solid numbers, there's no reason why Mejia shouldn't be locked into a rotation spot next spring.

    With Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson and Jake Odorizzi in line to return, and with Fernando Romero, Stephen Gonsalves and others waiting in the wings, the Twins are theoretically pretty well set on starting pitchers moving forward. That'd leave Trevor May as an odd man out, but he can sure help the club elsewhere and showed it over the weekend.

    After shaking off the cobwebs in a shaky 2018 debut on Tuesday, May was a dominant force in his follow-up on Friday. The righty complemented a mid-90s fastball with a hard, biting slider and blew Kansas City hitters away in his one inning, as he struck out the side and tallied six whiffs on 17 pitches. On Sunday, he notched a critical strikeout to strand two runners in the eighth.

    May's been out of sight for some time, but let's not forget that in 2016 he posted a 12.7 K/9 rate with 13.2% swinging strikes as a full-time reliever. Granted, he also posted a 5.27 ERA. The results weren't there but the stuff most definitely was – weren't we saying that about Pressly not so long ago?

    Incidentally, May is a sleeper candidate to fill Pressly's vacancy in the bullpen next year as a dominating righty setup man.

    The Twins have spent long stretches of this season without Sano, Polanco, Mejia and May, but it's deeply invigorating to see them all back on the roster, healthy and performing.

    LOWLIGHTS

    Another pivotal long-term figure who's been absent from the Twins for much of 2018 continues to endure setback after setback, and it's looking like he might not make it back this year at all.

    Byron Buxton, who's been in Triple-A since mid-June – first on rehab and then on optional assignment – spent half of July on the disabled list with a sprained wrist. He returned at the end of the month to make two starts, striking out five times in seven at-bats, and then went back on the shelf last week as the wrist evidently had not healed.

    Overall, Buxton has slashed .218/.299/.385 with a 31% K-rate in 22 games at Rochester since moving down, as a 24-year-old facing inexperienced prospects and minor-league journeymen. He has not earned his way back to the big leagues on merit, and is fast running out of time to do so. Toss in the inescapable onslaught of injuries, plus service time considerations, and it's pretty clear what the right path is for Minnesota at this point: Leave him down or DLed for the remainder of the campaign. Hope for a full reset in 2019.

    It's far from ideal, but idealism is out the window with Buck at this point.

    Having cleared some room on their 40-man roster through all the deadline sell moves, Minnesota picked up a couple of players off waivers last week, including one who has already made his way up to the MLB club. Oliver Drake joined the Twins when Matt Magill left on paternity leave Friday, becoming the latest reliever to get an audition.

    Drake is a 31-year-old who has bounced around a ton over the past few years. No one has been impressed enough to stick with him long. Don't get me wrong, there are things to like about Drake – his 3.51 FIP rate as a big-leaguer is at odds with the 5.00 ERA and he's got a 9.9 K/9 rate go along with spectacular Triple-A numbers – but it's mystifying that the Twins keep prioritizing veterans off the scrap heap, like him and Matt Belisle, over their own internal options.

    Why not give Alan Busenitz, Tyler Duffey, Luke Bard, John Curtiss, Nick Anderson or even Kohl Stewart a shot? There is no shortage of worthwhile candidates on the Triple-A roster, and this is seemingly the perfect time to take a look.

    TRENDING STORYLINE

    With Dozier gone, I'll be curious to see how playing time at second base is divvied up in the remaining weeks. Thus far, it's been two starts for Ehire Adrianza and three for newly acquired Logan Forsythe.

    The Twins gain minimal benefit from running Forsythe out there, so I'd hope to see Adrianza get the lion's share of time. I know many would like to get a look at Nick Gordon, but the 22-year-old's considerable struggles at Triple-A make that unlikely. Gordon's been amidst a bit of a free-fall; he went 3-for-28 last week and is batting .106 with zero extra-base hits in his past 17 games.

    Adrianza's bat has gone cold – he's batting only .125 since the start of July – but his playing time has also been very sporadic. In June, when he started regularly, he posted an .861 OPS. Why not run him out there nightly and see what what he can do? Unlike Forsythe, Adrianza can be a factor for Minnesota next year and perhaps a big one.

    DOWN ON THE FARM

    I was remiss not to mention Brent Rooker in the last edition, because he was an absolute monster the previous week (13-for-26, 3 HR, 7 BB, 3 K), so I'll remedy that error by highlighting him now. Rooker had another very solid seven days at Chattanooga, going 5-for-17 with two doubles and five walks. He has piled up 30 doubles and 20 home runs in 104 games at Double-A, and is batting .313 since the start of June.

    Of all the top 10 Twins prospects, Rooker seems best positioned to make a real impact at the major-league level next year. I'd love it if we got an early look at him in September, and the more he continues to crush week after week, the more realistic that possibility becomes.

    Another player he deserves to come (back) up to the majors and solidify his case for 2019: Romero, who surpassed his previous career high for innings pitched on Sunday in dazzling fashion, hurling eight shutout frame to shut down the Pawtucket Sox. Romero now owns a 2.71 ERA and 1.10 WHIP for Rochester.

    I wouldn't mind seeing the Twins go to a six-man rotation in September, adding Romero and lightening the load on him and the rest of the starters.

    In Cedar Rapids, Minnesota's system is seeing some incredible initial returns on a couple of recent additions. Ryan Jeffers, promoted to the Kernels late last month after decimating the Appy League, went 14-for-26 with three home runs and six doubles, producing an outrageous 1.116 slugging percentage in seven games. He walked four times and struck out once. Minnesota's second-round pick in the June draft has the looks of a fast riser, which is crucial given the position he plays (catcher).

    Now, it should be noted that it's hardly uncommon for a highly drafted college bat to take the low minors by storm, so we should temper our enthusiasm a bit, but obviously Jeffers is looking like a brilliant pick thus far, and first-rounder Trevor Larnach (.903 OPS through 14 games at Elizabethton) is also making a strong first impression.

    Speaking of first impressions, they hardly get better than Jhoan Duran's with the Twins organization. The 20-year-old, acquired in the Escobar trade, tossed seven hitless innings in his first start for Cedar Rapids on Monday, and then added 6 1/3 innings of three-run ball on Sunday with nine strikeouts.

    Duran was one of two players specifically called out by chief baseball officer Derek Falvey, alongside Jorge Alcala, in his chat with Sid Hartman of the Star Tribune regarding the team's deadline prospect haul. Falvey opined that those two have a chance to become upper-end starters, and made note of Duran's "real power stuff." So far that assessment looks correct.

    LOOKING AHEAD

    The comfortably mediocre Twins are nine games behind the Indians and five games ahead of the Tigers in the AL Central. They'll face both of them on the road this week. Which direction will Minnesota move?

    MONDAY, 8/6: TWINS @ INDIANS – RHP Kyle Gibson v. RHP Trevor Bauer

    TUESDAY, 8/7: TWINS @ INDIANS – LHP Adalberto Mejia v. RHP Carlos Carrasco

    WEDNESDAY, 8/8: TWINS @ INDIANS – RHP Jake Odorizzi v. RHP Mike Clevinger

    THURSDAY, 8/9: TWINS @ INDIANS – RHP Jose Berrios v. RHP Corey Kluber

    FRIDAY, 8/10: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Ervin Santana v. RHP Jordan Zimmermann

    SATURDAY, 8/11: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Kyle Gibson v. LHP Francisco Liriano

    SUNDAY, 8/12: TWINS @ TIGERS – LHP Adalberto Mejia v. LHP Matthew Boyd

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    I assume I am wrong about Duffey as most of my thoughts are stats and peripheral based but I think he can be an effective reliever. He was an effective reliever early last year and was used frequently.

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    Similarly, Nick Anderson and Kohl Stewart can be controlled beyond this season even without a 40-man roster spot, as long as no one selects them in Rule 5.

     

    .

     

    I'd say that there's a good chance that both of these guys will be selected if left unprotected. 

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    I assume I am wrong about Duffey as most of my thoughts are stats and peripheral based but I think he can be an effective reliever. He was an effective reliever early last year and was used frequently.

    Duffey by now is a one-pitch pitcher - his fastball is a "for show" pitch only, anymore. That's no way to go through life.

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    Duffey by now is a one-pitch pitcher - his fastball is a "for show" pitch only, anymore. That's no way to go through life.

    I don’t disagree.

     

    I still have to wonder a little though thinking back to the Astro relievers last year tossing curve ball after curve ball in the playoffs. Could the Astros take his curve ball and develop that pitch into a plus major league pitch?

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    I'm not in a position to interview Falvey or Levine, but some of you on Twins Daily are.  Why not ask them all the questions popping up on this site.  Why is Belisle still here?  Why isn't Gonsalves up?  Why do we keep adding has beens to the team?  Why aren't we bringing up certain relievers instead?  Some of you are in a position to get these answers for the rest of us.  If we had the answers to these questions our subsequent questions would carry more weight.

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    I'd say that there's a good chance that both of these guys will be selected if left unprotected.

    Well, Stewart went unselected last year, has much changed this year? He wasn't exactly an under the radar type.

     

    Anderson seems like a classic older marginal type. I think if anyone selects him, they will regret it (like Bard, Kinley, Jones, etc.).

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    Fair enough, although Rooker has a 25% K rate since the start of June and the Southern League average is 23% so I'm not sure I'd really deem that "contact issues" for a power hitter. Given that his approach has developed so rapidly and he already turns 24 in November I'm fine with pushing him and challenging him. I dunno how much value he'll get out of spending time in AAA.

     

     

     

    Seems the rumblings on him is that he's having problems with quality breaking pitches... he should see some better ones in AAA I would think. I like that his K rate continues to decline as the season is going on. He's obviously adjusting/learning. AAA wouldn't be a terrible bump.  Though I'm of the opinion that we won't see Rooker until at least middle of next year. 

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    Seems the rumblings on him is that he's having problems with quality breaking pitches... he should see some better ones in AAA I would think. I like that his K rate continues to decline as the season is going on. He's obviously adjusting/learning. AAA wouldn't be a terrible bump. Though I'm of the opinion that we won't see Rooker until at least middle of next year.

     

    Most hitters do. It’s the hangers that most hitters wallop.

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    Well, Stewart went unselected last year, has much changed this year? He wasn't exactly an under the radar type.

    Anderson seems like a classic older marginal type. I think if anyone selects him, they will regret it (like Bard, Kinley, Jones, etc.).

     

    Well, both were first round picks. Anderson has reinvented himself as a reliever and is knocking on the door. That's an easy selection for a bullpen weak team to see if he can stick. 

     

    Stewart has increased his K rate by about 25% and dropped his walk rate to go with it. Considering his biggest knock was his K rate (which is very respectable in AAA this season), someone might. You may be right that these guys are marginal 40 man adds. We don't see them either, so who knows. I'd think both are risks to go personally. 

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    Well, both were first round picks. Anderson has reinvented himself as a reliever and is knocking on the door. That's an easy selection for a bullpen weak team to see if he can stick.

     

    Stewart has increased his K rate by about 25% and dropped his walk rate to go with it. Considering his biggest knock was his K rate (which is very respectable in AAA this season), someone might. You may be right that these guys are marginal 40 man adds. We don't see them either, so who knows. I'd think both are risks to go personally.

    Anderson wasn't a first round pick. Maybe you are thinking of Tyler Jay? He will be eligible for Rule 5 this winter too.

     

    Anderson was a 32nd round pick from Brainerd who initially had to go to indy ball.

     

    Stewart, his K rate increased in his 3rd year at AA, but just a tick above league average. It is back down to well below average at AAA. He's giving up more hits than ever, although he is still getting grounders. Seems like he would most likely be selected for conversion to relief duty, and in that case, I am not sure he is in all that different of a position from last year.

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    Anderson wasn't a first round pick. Maybe you are thinking of Tyler Jay? He will be eligible for Rule 5 this winter too.

    Anderson was a 32nd round pick from Brainerd who initially had to go to indy ball.
     

    I'm apparently confusing him with someone else... not sure who. 

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    Rogers has (by far) the most appearances for MN over the past three years of anyone on the roster, and currently owns a 2.62 FIP as well as career bests in WHIP, HR rate and K rate. He'll be fairly cheap in 2019. He's a core building block in this bullpen and a total lock.

     

    You may be right on Moya, but I'd sure like to think he'll be in. The guy can pitch and has nothing else to prove in the minors.

     

     

    I think we're getting a little impatient on Austin. He's been in the org for like a week and it's not like he's been outrageously dominant in Triple-A.

     

    While I know everyone's disenchanted with Morrison, the Twins do have a reasonable option on him for 2019. Are you saying even if he turns it on with a monster final two months, you'd be totally opposed to exploring that route? He does have 5 HR in his last 16 games... 

     

    Treating Austin as some sort of guaranteed upgrade strikes me as symptomatic of a "grass is always greener" mentality.

     

    I'll raise my hand and say I'm opposed to picking up the option on Morrison.  :)

     

    I'll also recognize the possibility that he might turn it around and OPS .900 next year after we don't. 

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    I'm pretty late to this party but I think it would be a terrible idea to just shut Buxton down for the whole year.

     

    Give his wrist plenty of time to heal - couple weeks, a month, whatever. When he's ready to come back, put him in Rochester until the AAA season is over and then bring him up in September and give him a month against major league pitching. 

     

    The Twins' contention timeline depends an awful lot on Byron Buxton, and it would be nice to at least get him some reps against major league breaking balls. The Twins' contention timeline is a LOT shorter if Byron Buxton is playing to his full potential. 

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