Was the Miguel Sanó Extension a Mistake?

If he is not traded, his role with the 2022 team is: DH & Platoon !B with Kirilloff.  Kirilloff will man 1B against RHP, serve as a defensive replacement when Sano starts and may see some time in LF, if needed.

On 2/19/2022 at 5:46 PM, Brandon said:

Sano's bat took off last season after the league cracked down on pitchers.  So, I think that solves his biggest problem at the plate.  I suspect Sano will have a big year this year.  He is primed to have a 40 HR 100 RBI season.

 

That would be awesome for him, the Twins and especially Twin's fans.

On 2/21/2022 at 7:51 AM, Otaknam said:

His pitch recognition improved enough to bring his average to .218 from .150. but let’s not celebrate such modest improvement as a future trend.

Well, his half season splits show a dramatic change.

His OBP went from .279 to .343. His OPS went from .705 to .847.

Nothing modest about it. Once again, batting average is garbage.

We've seen this before but I'm willing to see it again.

On 2/20/2022 at 8:48 AM, Dave The Dastardly said:

Sano is redundant. The Twins have better defensive options at first and any number of players they can rotate at DH. Those options may not hit 500' homeruns, which don't count anymore than a homerun that squeaks across the wall by 2", but they do strike out less, get on base more and hit for better average; less outs, more RBIs.

The Twins have better defensive of options? Who AK? he has played 64 games at first since 2016.  or JD moved over from 3B.

The extension was fine, he hasn't blocked any prospect from coming up or hindered the team from signing anybody. Why are people worried about 10 million of Polhads money?

6 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Why are people worried about 10 million of Polhads money?

THAT is a legitimate question. I sure don't have an answer.

In regards to the extension I would have to say meh.  It still could work out in the Twins favor as I recall him saying after last season that he was going to workout hard during the offseason. If he comes into this season in shape and has a monster year then it was a good decision. If not, then we cut our losses and trade him at the deadline for whatever we can get knowing that the upside risk was worth it but just didn’t work out this time. You’ve gotta take smart risks and this one was a smart risk.

On 2/22/2022 at 9:13 AM, kenbuddha said:

Well, his half season splits show a dramatic change.

His OBP went from .279 to .343. His OPS went from .705 to .847.

Nothing modest about it. Once again, batting average is garbage.

We've seen this before but I'm willing to see it again.

Are you talking about Sano's batting average or batting average in general?

If it's batting average in general, I think that's way too bold of a statement. Batting average is very important. It's usually about 1/3 of a player's overall offensive production and almost never less than 1/4. I also think we're going to see an increase in the importance of batting average because I believe MLB is trying to reign in the days of the true 3 outcome hitter dominating MLB lineups.

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Are you talking about Sano's batting average or batting average in general?

If it's batting average in general, I think that's way too bold of a statement. Batting average is very important. It's usually about 1/3 of a player's overall offensive production and almost never less than 1/4. I also think we're going to see an increase in the importance of batting average because I believe MLB is trying to reign in the days of the true 3 outcome hitter dominating MLB lineups.

Batting average in general. I thought everyone moved past batting average being meaningful long ago. I'm being serious when I say please either show me or point me at a recent article that indicates that BA is making a meaningful comeback. In fact, I'd say OPS is the defacto standard for throwing out a quick evaluator of a players hitting. BA can be "high" and empty (see 1987 Willie McGee).

Wrt Sano's numbers that 2nd half BA of .250 is deceptive in relation to his 2nd half OBP/SLG/OPS of 343/504/847. BA just doesn't put his 2nd half into proper perspective. Hence my comment BA is garbage.

6 hours ago, kenbuddha said:

Batting average in general. I thought everyone moved past batting average being meaningful long ago. I'm being serious when I say please either show me or point me at a recent article that indicates that BA is making a meaningful comeback. In fact, I'd say OPS is the defacto standard for throwing out a quick evaluator of a players hitting. BA can be "high" and empty (see 1987 Willie McGee).

 

Wrt Sano's numbers that 2nd half BA of .250 is deceptive in relation to his 2nd half OBP/SLG/OPS of 343/504/847. BA just doesn't put his 2nd half into proper perspective. Hence my comment BA is garbage.

SSS's are SSS regardless of the metric you look at. Batting average is about 1/3-1/2 of the value in On Base Plus Slugging Percentage (OPS) as batting average is counted twice in OPS, being the largest component of both On Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage for most players.

Willie McGee posted a .746 OPS (94 OPS+) in 1987. Batting average accounted for 3/4 (.570) of his entire OPS (.746).

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/how-the-deadened-baseball-could-alter-mlb-strategy-in-2021/

"Major League Baseball sent a memo to all 30 teams in February outlining changes to the ball for the upcoming season. The changes, which were first reported by The Athletic, were designed to deaden the ball in response to the soaring home run rates of recent years. A record 6,776 home runs were hit during the 2019 season. The home run rate of 6.6% in 2019 decreased only slightly to 6.5% in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season."

MLB is very much trying to get more balls put into play in the field.

15 hours ago, bean5302 said:

SSS's are SSS regardless of the metric you look at. Batting average is about 1/3-1/2 of the value in On Base Plus Slugging Percentage (OPS) as batting average is counted twice in OPS, being the largest component of both On Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage for most players.

Willie McGee posted a .746 OPS (94 OPS+) in 1987. Batting average accounted for 3/4 (.570) of his entire OPS (.746).

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/how-the-deadened-baseball-could-alter-mlb-strategy-in-2021/

"Major League Baseball sent a memo to all 30 teams in February outlining changes to the ball for the upcoming season. The changes, which were first reported by The Athletic, were designed to deaden the ball in response to the soaring home run rates of recent years. A record 6,776 home runs were hit during the 2019 season. The home run rate of 6.6% in 2019 decreased only slightly to 6.5% in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season."

MLB is very much trying to get more balls put into play in the field.

I'm not sure what you think you're accomplishing by telling me that BA is a subset of both OBP and SLG. Everybody knows that. And the rest of your message seems to indicate some grander set of thoughts that I didn't bring up at all but I guess you felt the need to give me as some indicator of why BA is good? Keep to the subject please.

While I'm at risk of carrying on a conversation I no longer wish to pursue I'll try again.

With respect to Miguel Sano's second half last season, his BA of .250 would tend to tell us it was not a very good second half. However, an OBP of .343 or SLG of .504 or combined an OPS of .847 would indicate that while it wasn't close to his best season it was at least not as bad as we think it was.
Again <sigh> a .250 BA doesn't come close to giving a reasonable indicator of how he hit in the 2nd half of 2021 where as any of the other 3 stats give a much more accurate assessment.

And with that. I'm done.

21 hours ago, kenbuddha said:

I'm not sure what you think you're accomplishing by telling me that BA is a subset of both OBP and SLG. Everybody knows that. And the rest of your message seems to indicate some grander set of thoughts that I didn't bring up at all but I guess you felt the need to give me as some indicator of why BA is good? Keep to the subject please.

While I'm at risk of carrying on a conversation I no longer wish to pursue I'll try again.

With respect to Miguel Sano's second half last season, his BA of .250 would tend to tell us it was not a very good second half. However, an OBP of .343 or SLG of .504 or combined an OPS of .847 would indicate that while it wasn't close to his best season it was at least not as bad as we think it was.
Again <sigh> a .250 BA doesn't come close to giving a reasonable indicator of how he hit in the 2nd half of 2021 where as any of the other 3 stats give a much more accurate assessment.

And with that. I'm done.

I grovel at the feet of your army of strawman arguments. Please enlighten me, oh master of strawmen!

Back to reality. 57% of Miguel Sano's .847 OPS was batting average and Sano's 2nd half batting average of .250 was the same as the median MLB hitter with 200+ plate appearances. His batting average in the 2nd half was average. Normal.

Nowhere have I or would I say batting average is the only component which matters in offensive production. It is; however, an important one. You using OPS (which almost 60% constructed of batting average alone in the example you gave) as the offensive metric which is important speaks volumes here. Let's use your preferred example. Miguel Sano.

• 1st Half - .196/.279/.426 OPS .705 wRC+ 91 with a 10.1% BB adding 83pts to OPS and ISO adding 230.
• 2nd Half - .250/.343/.504 OPS .847 wRC+ 129 with a 12.0% BB adding 93pts to OPS and ISO adding 254.

What was the difference between 10% below average to 30% above average performance? Batting average. 108pts of OPS was all batting average. 10pts was BB rate. 24pts was extra base hits. Miguel Sano's batting average made 10x more of a difference in his OPS than walks and 5x more than his extra base hits. Had his walk rate and power remained identical from the first half to the second half, Sano still would have gone from OPS .705 to OPS .813 and from 10% worse than average to 20% better all on batting averge alone.

On 2/25/2022 at 11:18 AM, bean5302 said:

I grovel at the feet of your army of strawman arguments. Please enlighten me, oh master of strawmen!

Back to reality. 57% of Miguel Sano's .847 OPS was batting average and Sano's 2nd half batting average of .250 was the same as the median MLB hitter with 200+ plate appearances. His batting average in the 2nd half was average. Normal.

Nowhere have I or would I say batting average is the only component which matters in offensive production. It is; however, an important one. You using OPS (which almost 60% constructed of batting average alone in the example you gave) as the offensive metric which is important speaks volumes here. Let's use your preferred example. Miguel Sano.

• 1st Half - .196/.279/.426 OPS .705 wRC+ 91 with a 10.1% BB adding 83pts to OPS and ISO adding 230.
• 2nd Half - .250/.343/.504 OPS .847 wRC+ 129 with a 12.0% BB adding 93pts to OPS and ISO adding 254.

What was the difference between 10% below average to 30% above average performance? Batting average. 108pts of OPS was all batting average. 10pts was BB rate. 24pts was extra base hits. Miguel Sano's batting average made 10x more of a difference in his OPS than walks and 5x more than his extra base hits. Had his walk rate and power remained identical from the first half to the second half, Sano still would have gone from OPS .705 to OPS .813 and from 10% worse than average to 20% better all on batting averge alone.

Oh now I see it. Yes, That's a much simpler explanation.