Two Mets That Should Be on the Twins' Radar

The New York Mets are officially an entity of the Steve Cohen empire and the hedge fund magnate wasted no time cleaning house, bringing back Sandy Alderson to run the front office and relieving the divisive Brodie Van Wagenen of his general managing duties. The Mets are looking to return to the top of the National League and arguably their best opportunity to do so is by leaning heavily on their new owner’s deep, velvety pockets (I assume that all pockets of billionaires are lined with velvet anyway).

New York is coming off a disappointing 26-34 season that saw them finish fourth in the NL East and three games clear of the final Wild Card spot. No single Met performed particularly well on the season - that is besides perennial Cy Young candidate Jacob DeGrom and outfielder Michael Conforto - and the team was without starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard for the entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

It’s not out of the realm of possibility that Cohen will give the greenlight to any move - through free agency or trade - that will result in the Mets contending next season; one may even go so far as to say that it is likely. Should that be the case, there is a real argument to be made that the Minnesota Twins should be one of the first teams reaching out to Alderson and the Mets’ new GM...whoever that may eventually be.

New York doesn’t have a remarkably deep farm system - only three prospects rank in the top 100 according to MLB.com - though they do possess a number of team-controlled, young players already with the major league club that may be of interest to the Twins.

One such name is Amed Rosario. Rosario debuted for the Mets in 2017 at the ripe old age of 21-years-young and is a former high-level prospect. He has primarily appeared at shortstop across the 400 or so games of his career, but also has appeared in the outfield. (The Mets are reportedly considering moving him to centerfield next season.) Rosario possesses a strong arm and quick feet, making him viable at shortstop or in the outfield long-term. When compared to current Twins’ shortstop Jorge Polanco, Rosario grades out similarly in UZR and defensive runs saved, while performing slightly better in outs above average. (TL;DR: Neither are future Gold Glove candidates, by any means, but they’re both serviceable shortstops at worst.)

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On offense, Rosario isn’t anything to write home about as he will provide an OPS and wRC+ that trends toward league average, which is roughly similar to if not better than former utility man Marwin Gonzalez. However, his young age and solid hit tool allows for some projectability.

Where Rosario could be of value for the Twins is if they miss out on signing the likes of Swiss Army knife Kike Hernandez or wish to spend their money at a different position; he isn’t arbitration eligible until 2022 and has two minor league options remaining. In all, Rosario would provide defense akin to Polanco and offense akin to Gonzalez, but at a much cheaper price than either of the two or Hernandez. He shouldn’t be the Twins’ top priority this offseason, but he’d be a respectable consolation prize, especially if he can be had for reasonable capital.

Another name that should be on the Twins’ radar is David Peterson. Peterson is a former first-round draft pick for the Mets who made his major league debut this past season. Despite coming in at 6’6”, 240 lbs, the left hander ranked in the 35th percentile in fastball velocity and the 26th percentile in K% during the 2020 season. However, he possesses two skills that Twins’ pitching coach Wes Johnson loves: he doesn’t get hit hard and his slider is dominant.

Only 3.6% of batted balls off Peterson in 2020 were categorized as Solid, according to Baseball Savant, while 5.8% were categorized as Weak, which was better than the MLB averages of 5.6% and 3.2%, respectively. Additionally, Peterson’s hard hit percentage (70th percentile) and exit velocity (65th percentile) were solidly above average.

As for his slider, well...

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Peterson threw his slider 210 times last season and it produced 60% of his total strikeouts (24), a .119 BA, and a 37.1% Whiff%. For reference, Kenta Maeda’s split-change up - the pitch that propelled him towards a Cy Young caliber season - produced similar numbers. This is not to say that Peterson is an ace-level pitcher waiting to be unleashed - his ceiling is probably that of a mid-rotation starter - but Johnson’s previous success with pitchers who have one defining pitch is enough to make him an intriguing trade acquisition option.

But what would it take for the Mets to part with Rosario and/or Peterson? That’s the million dollar question.

The Twins would likely have to build a package centered around catcher Mitch Garver. New York lacks talent behind the plate and figures to be a major player in the JT Realmuto sweepstakes, but Garver would be a solid back up plan. Minnesota would also likely have to include a low-high-tier or a couple of mid-tier prospects to round out the deal.

All in all, a Twins-Mets trade isn’t likely high on the priority list for either team, but should one or both miss out on their top targets this offseason, they should keep each other’s phone numbers handy, just in case.

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