Twins/Padres Finalize Deal: Rogers, Rooker to San Diego for Chris Paddack, Emilio Pagan

4 minutes ago, Sconnie said:

I dont like losing Rogers, but you have to give value to get value. The bullpen got worse, but the rotation got better and the floor for the rotation raised, and held onto near ready prospects

overall kinda “meh”

I'm with you.

Twins are ushering out their 30+ year old aging stars who were on their way to be free agents (Garver, Donaldson, now Rogers) and they've received younger players back with more years of team control.

Rogers was awful in 2020 and while he rebounded in 2021, he wasn't exactly lights out. Then came the injury - don't forget he'd have been traded last July if it weren't for that. He hasn't pitched in an MLB game in a long time. Rogers isn't a sure thing for San Diego, gang.

Twins needed starters guys & gals, and say what you will, they're doing what they can to go get them.

Let's wait until we see how Paddack looks before we boo this trade, gang.

12 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

This move seems perfectly calibrated to maybe allow them to get to the playoffs but definitely ensure that they don't win any playoff games.

I don't think relievers win playoff games. 

The issue here is how one evaluates Paddack. Rooker for Pagan is a solid win for the Twins. If Patick is what he was in 2019, Paddack for Rogers is a win for the Twins. Starters are worth more than relievers. If Paddack is what he was in 2021, FIP notwithstanding, it’s a clear win for the Padres. As with many things, I think Paddack is going to turn out to be somewhere in between those two years, essentially a number 3/4 starter who gives us 150+ innings a year with an ERA from the high 3s to the low 4s. I think that means that the Padres win that end of the trade and it winds up about even overall given the different years of control. I don’t like losing Rodgers. Still, three years of Paddack could actually be a very good thing If he turns out better than I am thinking and a pretty good thing if he hits the mark I’m anticipating. In short, we improved the rotation at the expense of the bullpen and I’m OK with that.

15 minutes ago, ToddlerHarmon said:

Also, did anyone notice that we might have 8 starterish pitchers on the MLB roster? Gray, Bundy, Archer, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, Winder, and Duran. They could piggyback as four pairs, and that's the rotation. AFAICT, they are all good candidates to limit workload

I fully endorse this idea, especially with the huge pitching staff allowed by the April roster rules.

Just now, nicksaviking said:

I've never known this front office to have a "closer". Rogers was third on the team in saves and tied for third in games finished last year.

Fair enough. Who are the go to relievers in high leverage situations? Seems like we have one less than we had yesterday. Seems like the bullpen was on the thin side yesterday.

22 minutes ago, TheMatt said:

Booo. Seriously,  Manaea  cost nothing and was considered better than Chris. And we lose our only reliable bullpen arm. Bad trade, poor off-season  with no real direction. Half compete, half not.

Nothing? I'm sorry, if you think prospects have no value then you've lost your mind. Manaea cost quality prospects.

Rogers is an excellent pitcher and fine reliever for the back of the bullpen, but starters simply have more value. Someone like Paddack who is under team control for 3 more seasons, who has shown real success? there's a lot of value there if we get him back on track. he definitely makes us less reliant on Dylan Bundy being good, and there's a lot in his peripherals to suggest that he can make that return to form.

The real question Wes Johnson is going to have to attack is Paddack's fastball: it's gone from being a weapon to something that guys are teeing up on, so the question is: does he need to get a little more velocity on it or locate it better? (or both?) Can wes coax something additional out of the fastball, because the changeup looks to be a quality weapon for him. The curve is definitely less reliable, so it'll be interesting to see how his command on that evolves. But Paddack is a talented pitcher with a good pedigree at a good price and the potential to be a solid and reliable arm.

The last 2 seasons haven't gone that well for him (which is why he's available), but the last two seasons have also been pretty weird. Hell, even this year hasn't gotten off to a normal start. I'll miss Rogers, but Paddack should help.

I'm also glad we're moving on from rooker and getting something for him.  

There is no question that the Twins prioritized adding starting pitching this offseason.

The trade adds a young, team-controlled, backend-of-the-rotation starting pitcher

These two lines say everything about this off-season and the cross purpose of seeking out team control over front-of-the-rotation starting pitching. 

A few thoughts:

1. Tomorrow is opening day and I’m stoked.

2. Anything we do this year is gravy; I’m not swayed by the head fake that this is our year quite yet. So, IMHO, anyone that isn’t going to be around for ‘23-‘25 can be moved - including Rogers and Rooker - for some players who might be. 

3. By the trade deadline, that list could be quite long: Correa, Kepler, Sanchez, Urshela, etc.  Maybe not though - here’s hoping.

4. Here’s hoping the we let the kids play - Larnach, Miranda, Martin, Celestino, and, later in the year, Lewis. Eventually, our vaunted list of young starters are going to have to get some innings too.

15 minutes ago, mk said:

I don't think relievers win playoff games. 

No they can only lose them, but that's kind of the point.

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

They were projected as a top 10 bullpen going into the year.....that's thin?

Of the 3.4 WAR projected for the bullpen Rogers accounted for 1.9. The next best was 0.4. When the bullpen relies on the health of one player I would call that thin.

They replace Rogers with a reliever projected for 0.1 WAR. The new projection should put them in the bottom 10.

All I can say is maybe they think they can maximize both Paddock and Passan potentials. In that case we could come out way ahead in this trade.  Maybe Tingler knows something we don't. And maybe they are trying to veer from relying so heavily on a closer

Now they need to focus on a 4th OF, Garlick is definitely not it!

Man, you'd think after a few years with Baldelli and this front office, fans would look outside the box.

The Twins aren't going to have a 5 man rotation this year.  Its going to be something weird, no doubt.  Joe Ryan has never pitched more than 123 innings.  Bailey Ober has never pitched more than 125 innings.  Winder has never pitched more than 125 innings.  Balazovich has never pitched more than 100 innings.

Obviously Gray will go every 5th day.  Bundy can go every 5th day.  Ryan and Ober might start going every 5th day, but they will wear down.  Paddock is way better with an extra day of rest.  Ober was incredible the first time through the opener.

Baldelli would really manage this team with Openers, then starters going 3-5 innings, then go to the bullpen.

Yeah, losing Rogers sucks, but if the bullpen without him is going to prevent a successful season, then keeping him isn't going to turn them into a World Series team.  Obviously they are going to go with a Closer by committee.  They already started doing this with Rogers, by pitching him in the high leverage situations.  With Duffy, Alcala, Pagan, you have 3 guys who have had success in high leverage situations in teh past.  Stashak has been great at times,b ut not consistant.  Joe Smith seems solid.  Duran and Jax are a wildcards.   If Archer rebounds and the young starters are solid, then Paddock could be a really good bullpen piece.  Thielbar, Romero, Coulombe and Romera are depth (and expendable if someone needs to get added to the 40 man).

Getting value from Rooker makes sense.  If you need to add Garlick, you now drop your lowest rung RP off the 40 man.

Paddack IS NOT a starter in decline., His best years MAY be ahead.

The Twins went into the off-season looking for a closer. They didn't get one. Roger is good, a dynamite set-up man who can ALSO close. But.....

The Twins now have Coulombe and Thielbar from the left side. Moran is in the wings.

Yes, there is a logjam in the rotation. I picture, at least in May, the Twins doubling up one of the rotation spots to see how Bundy and Archer fare. You have that luxury with the expanded pitching staffs. Still, the Twins need to make a roster move to add, say, Garlick. What pitcher goes - we are on the edge of our seats. Stashak looked bound for the IL, but that dosn't remove him from the 40-man. Is Jax optioned off (going thru waivers). Romero?

Of course, the bigger question is "who goes come May 1" from the Twins piching staff. That is going to be one helluva a waiver wire day.

As for closer...humm, would the Twins be so bold as to offer up the job to...Duran?

The Twins have to pitch well and win in April. That is the table setting for the whole season, and it rests on a strong bullpen and a lights out closer. Always felt Alcala had the stuff (and he still may, shades of promise I ahd for Trevor May and before that Jesse Crain). But we can't have a COlombe-April again.

1 minute ago, USAFChief said:

Projected by who?

My guess

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-positional-power-rankings-bullpen-no-1-15/

I'm so confused by many Twins Daily folks. There has been a constant call to give innings to the prospects such as Ryan, Ober, Winder, Balazovic, and others. Adding a mediocre relief pitcher and a #6 starting pitcher does nothing to help the team and I expect Winder will now be sent down to AAA. This trade will reduce innings until Paddack is on the IL. Those who want low cost and player control should then be clamoring for trades of any and all of Sanchez, Sano, Polanco, Correa, and Kepler. Buxton has a no trade clause but might wave it to go to Atlanta for a prospect. 

I appreciate that the writers, like Seth in this article, try to just present the news but if the Twins cannot keep players on expiring contracts, the franchise is doomed. Getting inferior players because they have a couple of years of control is a weak strategy, at best. Why didn't Oakland trade Bassitt or Manaea for a Dobnak or Smeltzer? The Padres, supposedly, have a similar market to the Twins. Hmmm? I don't care for their team and i don't expect they will win the NL West. The moves have been confusing. 

The addition of Correa came at a time when national writers were asking why the Twins were spending at the same level as Kansas City. CC was entirely the work of Boras working with Pohlad. I'm not understanding the Twins at all, but am aware there are many others that laud  all of these moves.  Go Giants.

53 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

 

If Paddack is going into the rotation though, it sure better be at the expense of Dylan Bundy.

They are paying Bundy $4 million this year and hold a team option for 2023. They are going to give him every possible chance to succeed, for better or worse.

Another potential benefit of this trade.  $3M savings on payroll.  We don't know the exact limit the owners have given the front office, but that does free up money for the front office to play with in other deals.