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  • Twins With Options On The Trade Front


    Ted Schwerzler

    Recent reports have suggested that the Twins may be interested in using the trade market to handle some roster moves this winter. Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press reported that Minnesota has called on names like Gerrit Cole and Jake Odorizzi. Meanwhile, Darren Wolfson of KSTP noted that he sees it more likely Minnesota will use the trade market to strike a deal. With these reports in mind, what do the Twins have to offer?

    Image courtesy of © Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

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    First and foremost, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine sent a message that they intend to be active in the coming weeks and months. In leaving prospects like Jake Reed, Kohl Stewart and Lewin Diaz unprotected from the Rule 5 draft, they also kept four open spots on the 40-man roster. It stands to reason that those spots could be used on more immediate solutions, and potentially, players with higher ceilings. Suggesting that the Twins have four free agents in mind to take the openings is a bad bet, but the flexibility tells us the ball is rolling.

    Guys like Cole and Odorizzi aren’t going to come cheap. They’ve had real success at the big league level and remain under team control going forward. There’s no doubt other names are being talked about, and if they are cut from the same cloth, the Twins won’t be able to simply pry away, at low cost, a player or two. Despite the farm system not being what it was a year or two ago, Minnesota actually has a nice stockpile of options to move, so let’s take a look at some of them.

    The Shortstops:

    This group may be among the most impressive collections in all of baseball. Both Nick Gordon and Royce Lewis are top 100 prospects, while Wander Javier is going to quickly shoot up prospect lists in the next few months. Add in names like Jermaine Palacios and Luis Arraez (more of a 2B), and you’ve got a quality collection of talent. If I’m an opposing club, this is a group that provides plenty of intrigue. If I’m the Twins, Lewis is probably the only player that’s off limits.

    The Arms:

    Although the Twins need pitching at the big league level, you can bet any deal for a true MLB starter is going to cost a prospect in return. Stephen Gonsalves and Fernando Romero are the cream of the Minnesota crop, while Felix Jorge and Brusdar Graterol may be the next men up. The Twins added to the system in the form of names like Enlow, Littell, Leach and Watson over the past year, but it remains an area that any club is looking to build out. Gonsalves appears MLB ready now, and Romero should command a hefty ransom, but an acquisition with a proven track record may be enticing enough to move any of these names.

    The Bats:

    If we’re excluding the depth the Twins have in the middle of the infield on the farm, the offensive side of things takes a bit of a dip. Brent Rooker looks like a stud, and should soon be penciled in to big league lineups in Minnesota. Behind him however, things get a bit more uncertain. Diaz could skate through the Rule 5 draft having not played above Single-A, or the club could look to deal him first. Alex Kirilloff is a presence at the plate, but is coming off a lost season due to injury. Travis Blankenhorn looks the part of a sleeper prospect, and he could be joined by LaMonte Wade or 2017 pick Andrew Bechtold. Kirilloff seems like the most expendable asset here given the likelihood he moves the needle for an opposing club, but in this group there likely is not a cornerstone in any potential deal.

    The Bigs:

    Should the Twins be targeting major league ready talent, they may find themselves needing to give up some proven commodities as well. On such a young team, that’s a scary proposition, as the vast majority see their prime’s lying ahead of them. Eddie Rosario was a trade candidate prior to his breakout 2017, and Max Kepler may still be despite seeing his value sag. Minnesota could flip Jorge Polanco if there’s more belief in the farm options as well. As a whole however, plucking from this group seems like it could definitely come back to bite the hometown team.

    No matter what moves the Twins make, there’s no such thing as getting talent without giving it up. Falvey and Levine are going to have to make hard decisions in acquiring players from another organization. While it’s just money on the free agent market, there’s more to be had through a potential trade. Trusting in evaluations of both their internal assets as well as what they’ll be receiving is obviously integral to the process.

    Personally, I’d prefer to see the Twins dangle some combination built around Gordon or Kirilloff, maybe even getting interesting with international bonus money used. While doling out big paydays has become the norm, finding competitive advantages will always need to be the Twins plan of attack. The hot stove is warming up, and I’d be surprised if we don’t hear some of these scenarios begin to be speculated upon.

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    That would be a cyanide pill to swallow after this past year.

    Trading them for really good (pitching) prospects?

    Show me the full offseason and it could be an easy sell. For example trade both of them and spend the money on Darvish, trade several prospects for Cole, sign Escobar to a small extension and bring in a very good relief arm (or two) and I think most would be on board.

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    Trading them for really good (pitching) prospects?

     

    Show me the full offseason and it could be an easy sell. For example trade both of them and spend the money on Darvish, trade several prospects for Cole, sign Escobar to a small extension and bring in a very good relief arm (or two) and I think most would be on board.

    Or do some of these things and keep them.

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    Trading away good veterans for relatively small value doesn't make the team better next year no matter how much you dislike the 5 WAR Dozier. 

    I have no problem trading either of them for a top trade package. Maybe a top 25 and a top 100 prospect for Dozier or 2 borderline top 100 prospects for Ervin but I doubt that anyone offers that for either of them.

     

    You will not trade them for prospects.  You will trade them for young top of the rotation type starters.

     

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    Or do some of these things and keep them.

    Both work. But if trading Santana brings back a prospect that is needed for Cole and saves half of the yearly salary of Darvish then I make that trade. If trading Dozier brings back a top 25 pitching prospect (plus more prospects) that is a year or less away then that is a good trade. Both of these specific examples address the elephant in the room (starting pitching). This would be a very aggressive offseason with non-traditional FO thinking.

    But I don't think any team will come close to my asking price for them. 

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    You will not trade them for prospects.  You will trade them for young top of the rotation type starters.

    That kind of trade is incredibly rare. Pittsburgh hangs up the phone if you build a package (or even include) around either of them. They might trade Cole, Rivero or McCutchen but only to get younger and plunder another team's farm system. They won't be interested in Dozier or Santana for the same reason that you insist that the Twins should trade them. 

    Whenever anyone proposes a trade they need to ask themselves if they would do this if they were a fan of the other team. People can include as many marginal prospects (Stewart, Jorge, etc...) or as many sort of valuable MLB'ers (an ode to Duensing) as they want but these types have very little value in major trades.

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    You will not trade them for prospects. You will trade them for young top of the rotation type starters.

    If anyone is trading a young top of the rotation starter, it's because they are several years away from competing. Why would a team that is several years away from competing want to trade for players as old as Santana and Dozier?

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    That kind of trade is incredibly rare. Pittsburgh hangs up the phone if you build a package (or even include) around either of them.

     

    Yes they do.  Because they are rebuilding and want to shed salary.  I bet that if you call the Mets, or the Dodgers, or the Dbacks, or the Angels (for example), they do not hang the phone.

    Edited by Thrylos
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    If anyone is trading a young top of the rotation starter, it's because they are several years away from competing. Why would a team that is several years away from competing want to trade for players as old as Santana and Dozier?

     

    Not necessarily.  There are teams that have a whole bunch of young MLB ready pitchers who need a second baseman and also would like to have an experienced veteran.  Dbacks and the Mets are primes examples of 2 such teams.

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    Not necessarily. There are teams that have a whole bunch of young MLB ready pitchers who need a second baseman and also would like to have an experienced veteran. Dbacks and the Mets are primes examples of 2 such teams.

    But if they think they are a contender, they are trading prospects, not established top of the rotation starters.

    Nobody has a surplus of established front of the rotation arms.

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    But if they think they are a contender, they are trading prospects, not established top of the rotation starters.

    Nobody has a surplus of established front of the rotation arms.

    But some of those prospects are MLB ready (as he said) and some can be used to trade for the other holes your filling when packaged with the prospects we already have . In the mean time Otani has been signed or Darvish or both without breaking the bank or handicapping future extensions. I see the plan and I like it but it would be hard to get all these birds to land in one nest.
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    Seems like the smart move for the Pirates would be to trade those pieces individually as the White Sox.

     

    McCutcheon is a better player than Eaton, but he only has one year left on a reasonable contract. Even with the one year of control, he will get a good return. I think they need to trade him this winter so he retains the value of the compensation pick. The return for Eaton was two prospects better than anyone prospect the Twins gave to offer. McCutcheon is really a comp to Dozier though. Would trading one for the other make sense for the Pirates? Possibly if they were a contender and had a top prospect blocked by McCutcheon.

     

    Like Cole, Quintana and Sale both had two years of control last winter. Cole slots in between them in value. Quintana returned an MLB top 10 prospect and an MLB top 100 prospect and two others. Sale netted the number 2 prospect in baseball, a top 30 MLB prospect and two others. The Twins don’t have anyone to match those top prospects. They might have to offer the Pirates their choice of any three prospects in the organization plus one more.

     

    The deal of Robertson and Kahnle netted them Blake Rutherford a top 50 prospect and two others. Robertson is more like McCutcheon and Rivero is more like Eaton in terms of control. Rivero should be able to return a top 50 prospect plus a few Cs.

     

    The Pirates have an opportunity similar to the White Sox if they are wise about moving their assets. Trading them in one deal would not be wise. The Twins would have to go all in on Cole and gut their system given they won’t have the level of prospects other teams can offer.

     

    Thrylos’ trade broken down might be the young players for Cole, McCutcheon for Dozier and Rivero for Santana. McCutcheon and a Dozier are of similar value. Santana and many years of control of a Rivero are of similar value. The Twins could come up with 4 young players to get Cole. The trade is fair. The Pirates won’t need to be fair. They should be patient until they are long term winners for all three players.

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    I can see that - How about Slegers, Jorge, and if we still had him - Kohl with a position player thrown in?

     

    You're basically sending 3 high floor low ceiling guys at Pittsburg for Cole. I'm guessing they want more ceiling.... call me crazy. I think most of us would do this if Pittsburg wanted some of that, but I'm guessing Pit says no.

     

    I do think that we should be able to unload one or two of those guys as a key component in a trade to get a Cole or Archer, but I think there's going to be some higher ceiling guys (such as Gordon or Gonsalves) coming with.

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    You're basically sending 3 high floor low ceiling guys at Pittsburg for Cole. I'm guessing they want more ceiling.... call me crazy. I think most of us would do this if Pittsburg wanted some of that, but I'm guessing Pit says no.

     

    I do think that we should be able to unload one or two of those guys as a key component in a trade to get a Cole or Archer, but I think there's going to be some higher ceiling guys (such as Gordon or Gonsalves) coming with.

    I am fine with a Gordon or Polanco going with the package.  I was responding to the idea that they want some pitching back.  I know these trades are complex and I do not understand the multiple evaluations, but I think we have a mix of guys who could be interesting without destroying our own supply line. 

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    But some of those prospects are MLB ready (as he said) and some can be used to trade for the other holes your filling when packaged with the prospects we already have . In the mean time Otani has been signed or Darvish or both without breaking the bank or handicapping future extensions. I see the plan and I like it but it would be hard to get all these birds to land in one nest.

    Thrylos specifically said "not prospects". He also said front of the rotation starters. Nobody who is contending is trading guys like that.

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    Nobody has a surplus of established front of the rotation arms.

     

    The Mets and the Diamondbacks do; albeit not all that established.  Being "established" should not be one of the Twins' requirements here...

    Edited by Thrylos
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    The Mets and the Diamondbacks do; albeit not all that established. Being "established" should not be one of the Twins' requirements here...

    Neither of those teams have more than 5 front of the rotation starters, so they don't have a surplus.

    And before you said not prospects. If they are not established, then they are either not front of the rotation starters, or they are prospects with front of the rotation potential.

    Perhaps some examples would be helpful.

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    Neither of those teams have more than 5 front of the rotation starters, so they don't have a surplus.
    And before you said not prospects. If they are not established, then they are either not front of the rotation starters, or they are prospects with front of the rotation potential.
    Perhaps some examples would be helpful.

     

    They don't need more than 5, if they are getting Santana back for one in the rotation, and they have enough pitchers to fill their rotation appropriately.  They need 3, one of which can go to the Twins.

    Examples:  (The Twins target one of the top 3; other than Greinke for the Dbacks)

     

    Mets:

    Jacob deGrom
    Noah Syndergaard
    Steven Matz
    -----
    Robert Gsellman
    Matt Harvey
    Zack Wheeler
    Chris Flexen

     

    Diamondbacks:

    Greinke
    Ray
    Walker
    ---
    Corbin
    Godley
    Banda
    Miller
    Shipley

     

    And as you can see, under the line, in both of the teams, there is plenty of talent that is better than what the Twins have right now, and definitely enough for them to pick 2 to fill in a rotation, plus stash a bunch in AAA "just in case".  And they have more coming too.

     

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    They don't need more than 5, if they are getting Santana back for one in the rotation, and they have enough pitchers to fill their rotation appropriately. They need 3, one of which can go to the Twins.

    Examples: (The Twins target one of the top 3; other than Greinke for the Dbacks)

     

    Mets:

    Jacob deGrom

    Noah Syndergaard

    Steven Matz

    -----

    Robert Gsellman

    Matt Harvey

    Zack Wheeler

    Chris Flexen

     

    Diamondbacks:

    Greinke

    Ray

    Walker

    ---

    Corbin

    Godley

    Banda

    Miller

    Shipley

     

    And as you can see, under the line, in both of the teams, there is plenty of talent that is better than what the Twins have right now, and definitely enough for them to pick 2 to fill in a rotation, plus stash a bunch in AAA "just in case". And they have more coming too.

    Not all of those are front of the rotation starters yet. The ones that are, aren't getting traded for Dozier and Santana. Competing teams would rather trade prospects, and you already said not prospects.

     

    We should try to acquire front of the rotation starters, but they'll either have to be prospects from a competing team, or established pitchers from a rebuilding teams. Competing teams don't trade starters that are already contributing, it just doesn't happen.

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    Competing teams don't trade starters that are already contributing, it just doesn't happen.

     

    Do you remember who the Red Sox traded to the A's for Cespedes?

    Or who Detroit traded to the Red Sox for the same Cespedes?

     

    It does happen.

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    why would any of these teams want Santana if they have these arms we are targeting?

     

    Because, esp. the Mets, they would value a veteran presence.'

     

    And Santana does not come alone.  Dozier will be included in the trade, and both of these teams are sorely lacking second basemen. 

     

    The trade is Santana+Dozier for 1 young top of the rotation SP.

    (and what it takes to balance it on both sides in prospects)

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    Because, esp. the Mets, they would value a veteran presence.'

     

    And Santana does not come alone. Dozier will be included in the trade, and both of these teams are sorely lacking second basemen.

     

    The trade is Santana+Dozier for 1 young top of the rotation SP.

    (and what it takes to balance it on both sides in prospects)

    Couldn't they just sign a 'veteran presence', then trade prospects for a second baseman? Trading someone who is already a front of the rotation starter doesn't make a team better, it makes them worse.

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    Because, esp. the Mets, they would value a veteran presence.'

     

    And Santana does not come alone.  Dozier will be included in the trade, and both of these teams are sorely lacking second basemen. 

     

    The trade is Santana+Dozier for 1 young top of the rotation SP.

    (and what it takes to balance it on both sides in prospects)

    Preventing opponent runs scored is the major task of the new front office. Their first step was to address catching and emphasize outfield defense. I think both helped to prevent runs.

     

    The next task has to be to address pitching. Your trade would go a long way to addressing that need. If the front office is unable to package Dozier and Santana towards getting a front line pitcher, would you consider the performance of the front office to be a failure this winter?

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    Do you remember who the Red Sox traded to the A's for Cespedes?

    Or who Detroit traded to the Red Sox for the same Cespedes?

     

    It does happen.

    The Red Sox were a last place team when they traded Lester, a rental, to the A's at the deadline.

     

    I'm asking about competing teams trading established front of the rotation starters. Not rentals from last place teams.

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    The Red Sox were a last place team when they traded Lester, a rental, to the A's at the deadline.

    I'm asking about competing teams trading established front of the rotation starters. Not rentals from last place teams.

     

    How about Porcello for Cespedes?

    or even Fullmer (and MLB-ready top 100 SP) for Cespedes?

    How about Michael Pineda for Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi?

    Or Mike Leake for Adam Duvall?

    It happens.

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    How about Porcello for Cespedes?

    or even Fullmer (and MLB-ready top 100 SP) for Cespedes?

    How about Michael Pineda for Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi?

    Or Mike Leake for Adam Duvall?

    It happens.

    Porcello wasn't a front of the rotation starter.

    The rest were trades for prospects, not 30+ year old players.

     

    If you want to trade Santana and/or Dozier for someone with a career ERA in the mid 4's like Porcello when he was traded, sure you could make that happen, but that's not what you said. You said front of the rotation starters.

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    If the front office is unable to package Dozier and Santana towards getting a front line pitcher, would you consider the performance of the front office to be a failure this winter?

     

    Depends what else happens, like signing Otani. I think that at this point Santana will regress and will be behind Gibson at the Twins rotation depth and that Dozier and him can bring a good pitcher back at less cost than signing Darvish long term (which is not something I like them to do because of age.)  Add the fact that Santana will likely have his 2019 option vest, and it becomes even bigger of a problem, blocking someone like (let say) May or Gonsalves or Romero.

     

    If the Twins start spring Training with Dozier and Santana it will mean that the FO blew an opportunity.  Both of them are considerably older than the Twins' core players and the Twins should move towards the direction of building a core the will be at its prime for a long time.

    Edited by Thrylos
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    This offseason, nothings happened, yet there's already been a lot of talk of what the Twins need to do in order build on their surprise wildcard birth last season. Obviously this team is young, and ahead of schedule as well, but this doesn't mean its time to trade the system (top prospects or even some of our core) and go all in on Chris Archer, Gerrit Cole, Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman, or even Shohei Otani (don't think he'd want to come to MN anyways). 

     

    Although I do like the thought of overhauling on pitching, starters and relievers (Tommy Hunter and Brandon Kintzler), I don't think we need to because we got a lot of the system's top pitching prospects coming off injuries (Chargois, Jay, Burdi) and others looking like they'll be in MN sometime in 2018 (Gonsalves, Romero, Pudge Jr).  All Falvine needs to do is make two moves in order to make this a very good team. Which is sign  SP Yu Darvish and trade for RP Brad Hand.

     

    These are two pitchers that sometimes go under the radar as being "elite" because they choked in the WS (albeit small sample size) or we're apart of a dying franchise (Padres) that lowered their value by selling way too high in July (Preller). Regardless, I think these two would be all the Twins need in order reach the WC game again, maybe even become division winners again.

     

    We have enough bats to win a game, all we need to do is hold the lead.

     

     

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    Santana alone is not going to fetch much. He's got one year left on his contract and it's very likely his production is going to drop, possibly precipitously. A rebuilding team is not going to trade for him. A middling team is not going to trade for him. The type of team that will trade for him is a good contending team with weakness at the back of its rotation. Such a team is unlikely to give up an emerging young pitcher like the Twins need. The best option for the Twins would be to include him as a throw-in to boost their return in a trade involving other players. 

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