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  • Twins Trade Luis Arraez for Marlins' Pitcher Pablo López


    Ted Schwerzler

    The Minnesota Twins have been engaged in discussions for Miami Marlins starting pitcher Pablo López since at least December. Today that became a reality when they flipped 2022 American League batting champion Luis Arraez to South Beach, per Jeff Passan. In addition, the Twins also received two Marlins prospects in the deal, including one in their top five.

    Image courtesy of © David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

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    Last season for the Marlins, Pablo López posted a 3.75 ERA along with a 3.71 FIP. He’s jumped his strikeouts over one per inning in the past three seasons and continues to develop as a pitcher. His changeup is noteworthy, and his velocity sits in the mid-90s. Having debuted as a 22-year-old in 2018, he’s just entering his age-27 season.

    Minnesota has seemingly been in a never-ending quest for quality starting pitching. After acquiring Cincinnati Reds starters Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle last year, the rotation as a whole grew stronger at the top. While Joe Ryan did start on Opening Day, he projects to slot in as a more middle-to-back-end type of arm. The Twins also will return veteran Kenta Maeda this season, and they have depth in the form of Bailey Ober, Josh Winder, and Simeon Woods Richardson.

    The goal for Derek Falvey this offseason was to acquire a talent that met the Gray-threshold. Ideally,

    Rocco Baldelli needs another arm that can pitch in a short playoff series and be trusted to get the job done. While it may be debatable how close they truly are, López can certainly be that guy.

    Like the Twins did at the deadline, their goal in acquiring arms has been to avoid rentals. They would like to have time to work with pitchers and unlock whatever ceiling is seen for each individual. López is under two more years of team control via arbitration and is projected to make just over $5 million this year per MLB Trade Rumors.

    A pitcher at that level, and with that amount of team control, isn’t going to come without a significant cost. That’s where 2022 American League Batting champion Luis Arraez enters the picture. He is a talented player that is truly beloved in the clubhouse and the fanbase. When unveiling their new uniforms back in November, Minnesota opted to have him on stage, and his smile was beaming. Arraez has only known the Twins organization throughout his professional career.

     

    Minnesota fans know they are giving up a guy that doesn’t strike out, gets on base, and consistently hits for a high average. However, Derek Falvey is also likely conscious of Arraez’s deficiencies. Arraez has balky knees that have kept him from finishing seasons in recent years and is limited defensively, starting 94 games at first base and designated hitter last year. He has definitely done an admirable job shoring up first base when Baldelli needed him this year, but that position could be ticketed for Alex Kirilloff , among others, in 2023.

    In the deal, Minnesota also gets Jose Salas from Miami, per Craig Mish. An infield prospect currently ranked 5th in the Marlins pipeline, he is a 19-year-old that spent 2022 playing at Single-A. With a .722 OPS across 109 games, Salas flashed some power blasting nine home runs. Baseball America’s profile of him this year concluded that “No matter where he winds up on the diamond, his offensive skills will make him a valuable player.” So the Twins add more young talent to their up-the-middle prospects on the farm.

    The final piece of the deal going to Minnesota is 17-year-old outfield prospect Byron Chourio , per Mark Feinsand. He made his professional debut in the Dominican Summer League last season playing 51 games. The .838 OPS was impressive, and largely backed by his nine doubles. There is some speed there as well considering he swiped 19 bases.

    There’s no denying that Minnesota is getting a very good arm back in this deal, but López will have the weight of the world on his shoulders each time he goes out, knowing a fan favorite and clubhouse good guy was his price.

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    8 hours ago, SwainZag said:

    How can your issue with the trade be that Lopez isn't an ace?  Arraez should not bring back an ace.  There are like 10-12 aces in all of baseball.  I would agree I would love for the Twins to acquire one, but having issues with this trade because of that seems like an odd reason.

    They're giving up too much in my opinion. They Basically traded a batting champion for a level of pitching quality they already have. So now the Twins have 10 starting pitchers that are all #3 to #5 starters. That's my point. They gave up their leadoff hitter and batting champion for another Sonny Gray. And I might add, another pitcher with a history of injuries. I can't understand how casual fans think this is a good trade. Most of my Marlins fan friends on Facebook think the Twins got fleeced. 

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    8 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

    Having a rotation of #3 starters gives you a good chance of making the post season.  The problem is matching up in the post season once you get there.

    Arraez was just not good enough to get an Ace.  It takes a package that is really going to hurt to get an ace and we can't make team's agree.  They want to keep them as badly as we would like to acquire them.  The return of a very good pitcher a top 100 prospect and a third player with a high ceiling is a very good return.  Obviously, this trade has the potential to good badly just like any other trade.  However, the addition of two high ceiling prospects provides the potential for this trade to be very productive trade for the Twins.  I hate to lose Arraez but this is the type of deal, especially with Julien, Martin, and Lee getting close, that can make us better for many years.      

    He may not have been, but there were other pieces that could have been added to try to land an ace. And the prospects the Twins landed are just prospects. Most of my Marlins fan friends think the Twins got fleeced and I absolutely agree with them. 

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    Another pitcher for Professor Baldelli to count pitches. Some of the comments on this trade speak about the balky knees of Arraez. That is true, but, funny. Mr. Buxton gets injured sneezing. The majority of the team is in and out with incredible ailments. Yet, Correa played over 130 games last year with an ankle that everyone is worried about and Arraez hit the daylights out of the ball with bad knees. I think we have some mixed up views on our mighty Twins. We lost a great hitter and picked up an average pitcher. If, by some miracle our projected starters all magically get healthy and stay that way this year we are going to be trading pitching next year (or the rest of this year) because we have too many arms. We all know how Professor B. loves to pull them.............

    Go Twins!

    Twins Geezer glumly signing out!

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    1 hour ago, rwilfong86 said:

    He may not have been, but there were other pieces that could have been added to try to land an ace. And the prospects the Twins landed are just prospects. Most of my Marlins fan friends think the Twins got fleeced and I absolutely agree with them. 

    I pay much more attention to what the national guys think.  They are far more objective.  

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    Another right handed #3 to pull in the 4th or 5th inning. 2 more redundant prospects that can't replace any of the hits for years, if ever. 

    But hey.... we have a nearly 40 million dollar (with his salary and bonus share for the year) shortstop with a scandalous cheating resume, a 10 million dollar strikeout king instead. You gotta love that. 

    Another Lopez to blow up on the Twins. Lopez squared. I can't wait. 

    Falvey is just so desparate to make his mark. The pitching experts are still treading water with a team of #3s after 6 years.

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    Last Year when the Twins traded Taylor Rogers for Paddack. There were many who were concerned about the loss of Rogers but I was OK with the deal because I thought it was a great value trade. I remember saying... you make that trade for a starter every time. 

    Well... Here I am today... A great value trade was made... perhaps a better value trade than the Paddack deal. They made that trade for a starter... But, now the shoe is on the other foot because I'm not sure how they replace Arraez offensively much like others were not sure how they replace Rogers in the bullpen last year. 

    I guess it's my turn. 

    With that said... the season is still the off-season. The Twins have time to find a replacement for Arraez. As things currently stand Celestino would probably make the 26 man and that can't happen. He was not ready for that duty. We have more starters on the 40 man than we need. 

    I think the Twins will be moving a starter for a hitter before it's all said and done. 

    I'll reserve judgement until the off-season is concluded.  

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    18 hours ago, weitz41 said:

    Can't have too much pitching. Can't have too many short stop prospects when you want to trade for an ACE either.

    Salas is not a SS prospect - maybe not even an infielder prospect. 

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    18 hours ago, twins_89 said:

    I'm fine with the deal. The overall value seems pretty solid and I think the Twins were overstocked on the infield with Kirilloff, Polanco, Correa, Miranda, Arraez, Gordon, and Farmer (plus Lewis, Lee, Austin and Julien potentially to being ready at some point this season).

    The Twins have built some pretty good starting pitching depth for upcoming season. The team is still lacking a true #1 starter, but I'd rate the Twins #2-10 starters as being as good a group as there is in the Majors.

    Kiriloff may never be back - the risk with his wrist is greater than the risk with Arraez’s knees. Miranda cooled off a lot last year and neither he nor Kiriloff is an upgrade at 1B. Polanco has peaked and may not be on this team by the trade deadline. Gordon and Martin are primarily outfielders. Farmer is a one year stop gap. Lewis, Lee and Julien all have promise for sure - but it’s still just promise. Arraez brought incredible differentiated value to this team and arguably was our second best position player (Buxton playing 80 games doesn’t count). 

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    17 hours ago, beckmt said:

    This one hurts, but Gray is 32 and will probably want more years/money than the Twins feel comfortable with.  Mahle had shoulder issues last year and will be at least midseason before Twins feel like possibly offering an extension and Maeda is 34 and Twins should see what he wants, and if doesn't work he walks at the end of the season.  Ryan to me is a #4 starter with some upside.  So where is your ongoing pitching coming from?  Some of the prospects will probably make it, but asking 3 of them for next year seems like a lot.

    Julien will be here, and had no open spot. So they made one.  Now the question is what do the Twins do with Polonco? (Kepler is good as gone).  

    This is the truth - Lopez protects the Mahle, Gray, Maeda strategy for ‘23 and is the hedge on the ‘24 rotation when none of them are resigned (for whatever reason - pay demands, injury, plain old stink).

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    33 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

    With Rod Carew and Luis Arraez setting the standard, I warn any future Twins that winning a batting title is the quickest way out of town.  I just came back from Panama and went by Rod Carew Stadium in Panama City many times.  Perhaps I will see a Luis Arraez stadium someday if I am allowed to return to Venezuela.  

     

    Joe Mauer begs to differ. Didn’t he win two, even?

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    17 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

    Arraez was my favorite Twin along with Buxton but this is a fair trade. It tells me some things.

    1. The Twins think Kirilloff is going to be healthy and ready to go coming out of spring training and he will play 1B.

    2. Our long relief is going to be much better than last year as this pushes guys from being starters to there.

    3. We think Julien, Martin and Lee are advancing well and one or two of them will be opening day starters in 2024.

    4. You never have enough pitching (or SS's in the minors, wow).

    5. The Twins training staff has doubts about Arraez's knees more than they doubt Polanco's back/ankle.

    My big question, as others have asked, who is going to be our OBP guy so other guys have someone to drive in? I still think Kepler will be traded but, if not, you could have a really good late inning defensive lineup of Vazquez, Farmer (in for Miranda), Correa, Polanco, Kirilloff, Gallo, Buxton and Kepler.

    I generally agree, except for #2.

    The days of carrying using a roster slot on a designated long reliever are over. I think they're more likely to start with a 6-person rotation and then drop to 5 at the inevitable injury, just like they did last year.

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    2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

    Last Year when the Twins traded Taylor Rogers for Paddack. There were many who were concerned about the loss of Rogers but I was OK with the deal because I thought it was a great value trade. I remember saying... you make that trade for a starter every time. 

    Well... Here I am today... A great value trade was made... perhaps a better value trade than the Paddack deal. They made that trade for a starter... But, now the shoe is on the other foot because I'm not sure how they replace Arraez offensively much like others were not sure how they replace Rogers in the bullpen last year. 

    I guess it's my turn. 

    With that said... the season is still the off-season. The Twins have time to find a replacement for Arraez. As things currently stand Celestino would probably make the 26 man and that can't happen. He was not ready for that duty. We have more starters on the 40 man than we need. 

    I think the Twins will be moving a starter for a hitter before it's all said and done. 

    I'll reserve judgement until the off-season is concluded.  

    Having no opinion generates no mouse clicks, so nobody quotes the guy who says he will reserve judgment.

    Cheers to not knowing. 🍻 

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    21 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

    Love this trade. What’s not being discussed enough is the massive upgrade of Lopez and full seasons of Ober/Mahle vs. 60 Bundy/Archer/Smeltzer starts last year. 

    Truth. They just replaced a year of Bundy with a year of Lopez, and got a very good prospect and a lottery ticket? I can't believe they got a number 3 pitcher, a top prospect and another young guy in return. 

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    1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

    The consensus of the “national press” is exactly reason #1 to question this trade. Group think and parroting one another does not make for good analysis. 

    You must not follow them at all to think Keith Law has group think....

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    5 hours ago, rwilfong86 said:

    He may not have been, but there were other pieces that could have been added to try to land an ace. And the prospects the Twins landed are just prospects. Most of my Marlins fan friends think the Twins got fleeced and I absolutely agree with them. 

    Which ace do you think is getting traded right now? I can't think of one.

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    3 minutes ago, Shaitan said:

    Lots of obsession with "batting champion" as a phrase. 

    Arraez is great. But he hit .314. That's not exactly Puckett/Mauer/Carew territory.

    Two of those had power, and one stole bases..... Two of those were elite defenders. It isn't close.

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    6 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

    Truth. They just replaced a year of Bundy with a year of Lopez, and got a very good prospect and a lottery ticket? I can't believe they got a number 3 pitcher, a top prospect and another young guy in return. 

    I knew you’d come around :)

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    28 minutes ago, Shaitan said:

    Lots of obsession with "batting champion" as a phrase. 

    Arraez is great. But he hit .314. That's not exactly Puckett/Mauer/Carew territory.

    Carew won with .318 in 1972. That's pretty close. Mauer .328 in 2008.  Arraez still has some time as he is only 26 for 2023 season.

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    1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

    The consensus of the “national press” is exactly reason #1 to question this trade. Group think and parroting one another does not make for good analysis. 

    You are not wrong. We had Dick & Bert calling games on TV locally for a long time. You only need to listen to the out of town broadcasters on those rare occasions when the Twins were on a national telecast to know that outsiders don’t know the teams and markets as well as the locals.

    So, same with the national baseball press. They are going to make up an opinion of the trade without knowing particulars and without caring how it turns out or being invested in its success or failure. If they turn out to be wrong, no one is going to come back and hold them to it or ask them what they did wrong. Because they have moved on to having an opinion on the next big thing they don’t really care about. Not that the local press is without their own faults…

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    31 minutes ago, Shaitan said:

    Lots of obsession with "batting champion" as a phrase. 

    Arraez is great. But he hit .314. That's not exactly Puckett/Mauer/Carew territory.

    Another way to put it is that .314 is actually Arraez’s second worst season batting average. 

    Are hits overrated now? Interesting. Well what about hits plus walks? 

    Arraez is 14th in MLB in OBP since his debut in 2019. For context, the top of that list includes guys like Trout, Judge, Bryce Harper, Freddie Freeman, Juan Soto, who are the top five. Arraez is in the next tier with Goldschmidt, Betts, and other guys like that. Correa ranks 32nd in OBP since 2019.

    Granted, OBP is not the only hitting tool, and Correa is a better overall hitter than Arraez. But OBP is extremely important, it’s the “not making outs” tool that I remember people on this site used to make a big deal about. (until now)

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