Twins Trade Candidate: Jorge Polanco

33 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I mean we can make some pretty educated guesses. I feel quite confident in saying the Marlins are not trading 2 of their pitchers in 1 deal. It's generally a bad idea as it doesn't maximize your return. Especially when it's a deal that doesn't even include a single elite talent in return. And why would they want a lesser pitcher who ended the year on the IL with shoulder problems, and has less team control, in return? That deal hurts their rotation without improving their offense (they have Larnach lite already, his name is JJ Bleday) so I'm very confident they wouldn't accept that deal.

And I'm not sure why we'd trade Arraez and Gray for Jansen. Real bad idea to pay full price for a part time catcher coming off a career season. Especially if you're going to turn around and trade Jeffers. You're in the same spot of needing a 2nd catcher who's good enough to start at least half the games next year.

The team has $60M we should be expecting them to spend in free agency this offseason. There's no need to trade major leaguers when that's the case. Go out and sign the help you need to fill holes instead of trying to fill 1 hole while creating another.

Yes, sign somebody. The Twins don't need any more piles of Happ, etc. I would like to see a signing of Rodon for 5/$125 and Correa for whatever. I don't expect this to happen. I just threw out those trades but have not made them part of any plan. I'm curious about what possibilities exist.  What would Miami want? Polanco or Kepler or Arraez?  I suggested Larnach because he has been mentioned as having a high trade value, although I personally do not see that. I'm not sold on Jeffers as a starting catcher and am not enamored with any of Mahle, Gray, or Maeda. Perhaps some other team thinks differently. i believe the Twins have mostly spent their money on stopgaps and still don't understand what the agenda was with the SD Padres trade, except for Falvey has stated that he always liked Paddack. I never stopped following or watching the Twins last season but they were a sorry team in nearly every regard. Thus, I am curious about what options exist. It sure seems like most folks have plans to return the same team mol.

17 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

He is our best candidate to move.  Better to  move veterans like Polanco than the younger prospects.  I think Polanco has peaked and he like so many Twins has too much injury history.  But most of all, there are a lot of replacements that are good quality.  

If we want something good we have to give up something good.  A position player like Polanco does not have the value to get a strong SP by himself, but in a package he can be the name that starts the discussion.  He represents more than Kepler who was discussed in another entry. 

We have to have some young prospects ready to hit the big leagues and not be able to stay healthy.  It can't just be Kiriloff & Larnach.

13 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Arraez is no longer a 2B. That's my problem with all of this "trade Polanco" talk. The Twins don't currently have a logjam at 2B. They have 1 major league quality 2B in the org right now and his name is Jorge Polanco. Arraez can't play a full season there, especially without the shift where his lack of range would be killer. Arraez is a DH/1B/3B in that order. I don't see him as part of this conversation at all, and I'd bet the team doesn't either.

As for the prospects, that's all they are. Julien and Martin are fun to think about right now cuz they're tearing up the AFL, but Julien is not a good defender, and Martin has to hit for more than 3 weeks before he's any part of the major league equation. I don't see any player anywhere in the org that is at all capable of being the opening day 2B outside of Polanco.

Why would we trade one of the few above average players we have left on the roster? Nobody is pushing Jorge out right now. Trading him would be a self inflicted wound that I think is completely unnecessary. They can spend to fill every hole they have. Why create a hole at 2B to attempt to fill a hole that can be filled simply by spending?

Paragraph one:  spot on.  Paragraph two:  spot on.  Can't argue with a single word.

Paragraph three is where I can't help but go back to the thought that we would trade one of the few above average players we have is because they are the only ones that would bring anything back.  And Jorge in particular is going to lose trade value every year (even every month) that goes by from this point forward, although that can be said for a lot of the guys I suppose.  Yes, you can spend to fill holes, and I hope they do if the right deal is out there (SS?), but that just adds to the 40 man without a subtraction.  For every player we buy in the off season another player has to be moved from the 40 man.  If we could spare spots on that roster would we trade the prospects that are being taken off?  Your logic is impeccable in its own way, but how do we keep the prospects we want protected from the Rule 5 if we keep adding free agents that bump them from the roster?  Or do you think that there is simply enough dead weight we are going to let go of that would make the point moot?  I don't think there is anyone here who just doesn't like Jorge and is saying dump him, I sense that it is more along the lines that some of us feel he would bring the most in return at this time and we have needs greater than the difference at 2nd he would be over his replacement.  Do not trade him just to make a deal of course, I remember letting Rosario go thinking we had plenty of OF prospects to take over, and how did that work out for us........but I digress.  But if Jorge, alone or as part of a package, would bring something we need more than simply a better 2B than who would take over, I would (sadly) say bite the bullet and fill a need.  I would trade any player on the 40 man, for that matter, that would make us a better club, but if I go there I am off topic, so I stayed with trading Jorge just for that purpose.  Sometimes the hole you need to fill doesn't happen through free agency; a trade or two might be needed.    

You may very well be right when it is all said and done, but I don't want to rule something out that might improve the overall make up of the club.  Besides, they don't listen to me anymore ever since they stopped taking my calls.  So you don't have to worry.    

It is hard to imagine finding a trade for Polanco that results in the 2023 team being better. Team interested in Polanco would not likely be interested in moving one of their key 2023 pieces. I felt the same way last winter about trading Garver is r Rogers. The Garver move in combination with Donaldson trade and Correa did improve the team in 2022. It is possible but unlikely.

Lewis, Martin, Lee, and Julien are very talented prospects who display everything we want and need. And all of them could be a part of 2023, or 2024. But none of them have arrived YET! So we want to debate trading away one of the best players on the entire roster for a maybe to open up another hole in the lineup? There is no way I would trade away one of the  best hitters in my lineup, one of the better 2B in all of MLB, in favor of trusting prospects or bench pieces to fill his role unless I got something tremendous back.

Arraez is a competent 2B. So is Gordon. But they aren't Polanco. With a little work, Julien just might be a Polanco replacement.  But he's not there yet, despite great promise. Just now way I'm trading away one of the very best players on my team until someone proves he's ready to replace him. 

On 10/26/2022 at 7:51 AM, Otaknam said:

An interesting idea that makes sense for the right deal. It looks like Julien is an on base machine.

Julien and Arrarez hitting 1-2 would make for a ton off RBI chances.

Both OnBase machines. Arraez hitting and Julien with 100 walks

On 10/26/2022 at 6:16 PM, DJL44 said:

Polanco was terrible at 2B in 2022. UZR/150 of -9.2 which was the second worst (to Gavin Lux). Second worst in Outs Above Average (-9) to Nolan Gorman. Below average in every defensive rating system and one of the worst fielding 2B in baseball in some of them. Carlos Correa's defensive numbers at SS started to climb at the end of the season when Polanco's injury kept him out of the lineup. This is the biggest reason why it would be difficult to trade Polanco. Nobody wants to downgrade their 2B defense that much. If Polanco is really this bad defensively then the Twins should trade him now before he becomes unplayable. 

Arraez and Gordon both graded out as average at 2B - Arraez slightly above and Gordon slightly below.

I wouldn't use UZR for infielders because it doesn't account for the shift because it is zone based and I find the fact that it includes errors (which are inherently subjective and not standardized judgements) to be not good as well. I much prefer DRS which since 2013 uses estimates for how far a player had to go to catch a ball like OAA. But even if we accept he had horrible range this season, defensive metrics have a lot of margin for error with a small sample like Polanco's season so I'd look at his whole career playing second not just one season.

On 10/26/2022 at 10:15 AM, chpettit19 said:

If they trade Polanco they should trade every veteran and start over. I don't see how you improve the team by trading him. Seattle is not giving up Hancock for Polanco. Nobody is giving up a pitcher better than Gray for Polanco. The only hope for a better team without Polanco than with Polanco is if you're trading him to clear money to sign Correa, Turner, and Rodon.

There are no prospects that deserve space on the MLB team be cleared for them. There's some solid guys that should get chances throughout 2023, but none have proven they can help the Twins win and deserve a spot out of ST for a winning club. If they're trying to win they need to keep Jorge Polanco. If they're starting over they need to trade Kepler, Mahle, Gray, Maeda, Gio, Lopez, and any other veteran I'm forgetting (Buxton has a no trade clause) and start over. Don't rearrange the deck chairs. Either sink the titanic and start over or go in and reinforce the hull so it can handle more iceberg damage and keep on truckin.

Penn Murfee (reliever, help bullpen), Abraham Toro (2b / Utility help) and Bryce Miller (Great Fastball & Slider) Twins love Sliders, would add to bullpen, utility guy, and prospect with upside for Polanco and Cole Sands.

We actually have numerous starters, and still could sign Rodon to be #1 for 135 million for 5 yrs. use Correa and Polanco money.

Then trade Noah Miller) play with his older brother) and Sean Mooney to Cleveland for Rosario, they won't pay him 9 million in arbitration.  Then sign Rosario to 2yr contract for 24 million or so.  Costing 1/3 of Correa. Brooks Lee should be ready in 2 yrs.

On 10/26/2022 at 3:39 PM, Canton Clark said:

Wrote an article advocating for this last year with hope the Mariners would be willing deal for him.

Wanted Matt Brash + .. Now, not sure they'd even be willing to do Brash now. If they are, would be all over it. Was dominant as a reliever. Posted a 2.13 era over his last 30 games once he was moved to the bullpen. Still has a shot at starting one day as well.

Would be a great 1-2 punch with Duran the next 5 years.

 

Penn Murfee (reliever, help bullpen), Abraham Toro (2b / Utility help) and Bryce Miller (Great Fastball & Slider) Twins love Sliders, would add to bullpen, utility guy, and prospect with upside for Polanco and Cole Sands.

We actually have numerous starters, and still could sign Rodon to be #1 for 135 million for 5 yrs. use Correa and Polanco money.

Then trade Noah Miller) play with his older brother) and Sean Mooney to Cleveland for Rosario, they won't pay him 9 million in arbitration.  Then sign Rosario to 2yr contract for 24 million or so.  Costing 1/3 of Correa. Brooks Lee should be ready in 2 yrs.

On 10/28/2022 at 9:49 AM, chpettit19 said:

What's the reason for swapping out Polanco to fill a hole you could just fill on the open market?

I agree. If they have confidence that one of Julien or Martin or Arraez or Gordon can fill the role they might consider trading Polanco for something they can’t fill on the open market. How about Mariners top catching prospect Harry Ford? His BTV is 11.1. Polanco’s is 15.8. Maybe take a chance on Sam Haggerty (switch hitter with career OPS against lefties of .924 and righties .531) to platoon in outfield or Chris Flexen or both bringing the Mariner side to 15.1.

The same question then flips to the Mariners. Why would they give up a top prospect to fill a hole they can fill on the open market? 

On 10/26/2022 at 7:42 AM, Linus said:

People do realize that chances are Julien and Martin will never match Jorge’s production right?  The guy is one of our best all around players on a great contract so let’s dump him?  Prospect love strikes again. 

They could play Arraez or Urshela at 2B.  Then, IF Julien or Martin come up and kill it, they could put one of them at 2B.  The Rays, A's and Cleveland have all clearly demonstrated the value in moving players like Polanco when they have depth.  Just take a look at how Cleveland built their current team.  Trading Kluber, Clevinger and Lindor is the reason they were good this year and have a great chance at sustained success.

On 10/26/2022 at 10:00 AM, farmerguychris said:

I see no reason to trade him.  We are nearly at the point of the season where we can acquire good starting pitching for nothing in trade, only money.  No reason to weaken our roster on the O side to get a pitcher when we can get them for only cash (which we have plenty of).

Look at the impact of Cleveland trading Clevinger, Kluber, and Lindor.  Do you see a reason now?  Gimenez was a 6 WAR player.  Clause is one of the best closers in the game.  They also got Naylor / Straw and Quantril by trading away established players.  I guess there is no reason if we only care about immediate impact but the mid-market and small-market teams having success are trading depth or guys they won't be able to resign.  Cleveland managed to get guys that were close to contributing so the wait for production was not that long.  The examples are numerous if you are willing to look.