Tomorrow Is Not Promised: A Recent History of Twins No. 1 Prospects

MLB prospect rankings were tough to find back in the early 1980s. Coverage of the minor leagues was not exactly prominent before the internet's takeover. However, Baseball America does have archives of its rankings dating back to that time, which is pretty fun.

You may be unsurprised to learn that in 1984, ahead of his major-league arrival, Kirby Puckett ranked No. 1 on Baseball America's prospect list for the Twins. It was well earned. Drafted third overall in '82, he was an immediate sensation, batting .382 in his pro debut and reaching the majors for good within two years. 

Little did anyone know back then, but Puckett would go on to epitomize the thrilling highs and tragic lows that can come with a life in pro baseball – the variance involved in even a legendary Hall of Fame career. He was a shining star of the game for 10 years, and a World Series hero, before it all came crashing down in sudden and devastating fashion.

"Don't take it for granted,'' Puckett reportedly told his teammates in 1996, after informing them of his retirement due to an irreversible eye condition. "Tomorrow is not promised to any of us, so enjoy yourself.''

His post-playing life became an even sadder story, but I'm not looking to dwell on that. Instead, I want to reflect on his parting sentiments toward the game, his fellow players, and his fans. 

Puckett was fortunate (as were we) that he was able to achieve the iconic heights he did. The same can be said for subsequent top prospects and MVPs like Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. These players had the chance to establish their enduring legacies, even if all three primes were cut short by freak injuries beyond their control.

In recent years, we've seen that even a truncated run of notoriety like theirs is by no means assured for the brightest and most touted talents to come through the franchise.

A lookback through the successive No. 1-ranked prospects in the organization over the past 10 years, according Twins Daily's lists, reminds us that even for the most promising, nothing is ever promised. Hopefully it also provides a bit of valuable perspective, with a nod to Kirby's advice about enjoying today and not worrying about tomorrow.

Twins Daily #1 Prospects Over the Years

Byron Buxton: 2013-16

Thirty years after Puck, Buck came along and followed right in his footsteps: high school star center fielder turned top-three draft pick turned immediate pro success. Buxton quickly emerged as the consensus No. 1 prospect in all of baseball and reached the majors by age 21.

As we know, it's been anything but a storybook journey for him since then. The tools and talents that earned Buxton such prospect praise have been fully on display in between endless and excruciating bouts with injury. He enters this year surrounded by an especially high degree of uncertainty as he looks to move past a recurring knee issue some fear to be chronic. 

While much of his tale thankfully remains to be written, Buxton's turbulent journey to this point perfectly summarizes the theme of this list: everything he can control has gone right, and everything he can't, has not.

Fernando Romero: 2017

Once Buxton had officially graduated to major-league status, a void opened in his entrenched perch atop Twins top prospect rankings. Different outlets went different directions, breaking with the firm consensus that ruled Buxton's reign, but TD's panelists chose Fernando Romero. The big right-hander had seemingly overcome his own gauntlet of injuries to re-emerge as a fireballing ace prototype with velocity, spin, command, and mound presence.

Of course, this optimistic forecast never came close to materializing, and in his case, we can't chalk it up as much more than an age-old example of the encouraging young arm plateauing and fizzling out at the highest level. Romero struggled over 26 appearances with the Twins between 2018-19, and hasn't been back to the majors since. He spent the past two seasons playing in Japan, with mediocre numbers.

Royce Lewis: 2018-20

When you get selected at the very top of the draft and immediately start performing in the minors, it's a natural path to the No. 1 prospect spot, which is why Buxton held it down for four straight years, and why Lewis opened up his own three-year reign shortly thereafter. 

Then, Lewis began his own battle with uncontrollable adversity. The shortstop was creeping toward MLB-readiness in 2020 when the COVID pandemic wiped out an entire minor-league season. During the following winter, he tore his ACL slipping on ice, requiring surgery that erased his 2021 season. Shortly after returning to the field following a lengthy rehab, he re-tore the same ACL in an outfield wall collision. He's again on the rehab track and aiming to return midseason, at which point he'll have played 46 official games in the past three-and-a-half years.

Alex Kirilloff: 2021

No minor-league baseball was played during the 2020 season, so there wasn't much movement among returning players on our list the following year. We did, however, elevate Kirilloff to No. 1 on the basis of a loud showing at the team's St. Paul training site that culminated with an MLB debut in the playoffs.

He'd already gone through his own cruel rite of passage as a Twins top prospect, losing a season of development in the minors to Tommy John surgery, but Kirilllof had seemingly come out on the other side. He got the official call-up in 2021 and looked like he was in the majors to stay before a wrist injury surfaced and sent his ascendant career spinning off the rails. Almost two years later, he's still trying to get it back on track, following a second surgery on the same wrist. 

Early signs are good, but Derek Falvey painted a stark picture of finality regarding the success (or non-success) of this last-ditch effort a salvage a career threatening to grind to a halt almost before it starts.

"He’s never coming in at the end of the day, walking into that room and going, ‘Hey, I’ve got some soreness,’ " Falvey told reporters. “At this point, that’s all we can do because as you all know, this is the procedure. There’s not another one. This needs to work."

Austin Martin: 2022

The headliner of 2021's José Berríos trade, Martin went straight to Double-A after being drafted and led the league in on-base percentage while showing stellar speed, contact skills, and strike zone control. With Kirilloff graduating and Lewis coming off two straight missed seasons, Martin overtook the top spot on our list.

He followed up with an underwhelming encore at the same level, tarnishing his prospect luster, but the 23-year-old should not be discounted as a factor going forward. The same standout traits mentioned above were still intact even as his modest power evaporated, and talent is talent. 

Like Romero, Martin's drop-off is seemingly a more standard story of stalling player development than catastrophic bad fortune, but unlike Romero, he still has plenty of time to reverse course and show this was nothing more than a bump in the road. 

At the very least, Martin seems destined to pan out as a useful big-leaguer player, if not a star, and that's a (generally common) middle-of-the-road outcome that's been rare in these ranks.

Brooks Lee: 2023

Alas, we arrive at The New Guy. Lee joined the organization as the No. 8 overall pick last summer, and he followed the tried-and-true path of Buxton, Lewis, and Martin before him: from top draft pick to immediate producer to No. 1 Twins prospect. As we've seen, the paths can diverge greatly from this initial juncture.

By no means am I drawing out this pattern to place a hex on Lee (though one could argue, based on ample evidence, that he was cosmically hexed from the moment he was drafted by the Twins in the first round). I do think it sheds important context on the punishing nature of this profession, the lack of assurances for any player, and the importance of enjoying things in the moment. 

Things like Lee experiencing first major-league camp, or Lewis sprinting and smiling on the sidelines as he cheerily battles to overcome another setback. Each time Kirilloff swings and cracks a line drive with no ensuing wince, or Buxton springs up after a spectacular diving catch, it's something to appreciate because we've all seen how quickly and randomly it can all go away.

People who obsess over following prospects, like myself, are apt to get overly caught up in projecting the future, and fixating on ceilings, and taking for granted that greatness will find a way. Sometimes, it doesn't. And even when it does, the moment can be fleeting. In fact, most often it is. 

No one knows what tomorrow will hold. And in large part, that's out of our hands. I think this is an important mindset for Twins fans to carry into a season that will inevitably be fraught with looming health concerns and triggering setbacks. My recommendation (and one I'll aspire to live by): Don't give into doomsday-ism, just enjoy the moment.

Past does not dictate present or future. The Twins as a team will be setting out prove that following back-to-back disappointing seasons, and many of their former chart-topping prospects will be looking to support that cause by doing the same.