Twins Sign RHP Michael Pineda

Those teams that are adept at teasing out the signal from the noise in the forecasting realm will run circles around those teams that believe there is certainty to be had in any of the numbers. We fans at home are certainly entitled to play along with the celebrity panel.

The closely guarded secret is how major league teams evaluate players.  Teams do not have an analytics department for shirts and giggles. This is a multi million dollar gamble is for the Twins.  A pitcher of a high ERA can be found. So there has to be something there worthwhile.  

It may well be the analytics department for pitching is a Ouija board on a waning moon. It would explain why he was signed now

The un-satire version is, calling a player a negative because his WAA is below zero is just as arbitrary as the cutoff point for WAR, because analytics are not especially developed for the purpose of constructing .500 (average) teams.

You misunderstand then.

It's not about .500 teams.

WAR -> Comparison to top level AAA players. "Replacement level."

WAA -> Comparison to major league players. "Good players."

Since most teams have around half of their players with a flatline or negative WAA, the actual metric for a .500 team is somewhere between the WAR and WAA. Thus, a .500 team should have a negative WAA, albeit small.

To test this let's look at the data. 

There were no .500 teams this year. Here are the closest:

Royals (80-82) -6.5.

Rays (80-82) 1.9

Angels (80-82) -2.5

Average: -3.63

Seems legit, but the Rays under-performed and the Royals over-performed (but this sample size is far too small).

The Twins WAA was 0.4 (This tells us what we already know -- the Twins were a hair better than the competition). 

The Astros? 17.8.

But this isn't even the point.  The point is comparing players. If you are looking at a 1.3 WAR dude and thinking happy thoughts but WAA at the position was 2.4 in that year, well, you're actually getting a bad player.

I understand there's a ton of information about WAR and none at all about WAA, so many of us are going to be unable to think about WAA at all, though. I completely get the "does not compute" responses.

WAA has been around a long time. It's fine. Using 0.0 to determine bad players isn't.

Just curious, how long do you think WAA has been around?

As Adam Darowski of SABR (an early proponent of WAA) wrote, "62% of WAR is just showing up." WAA separates the wheat from the chaff.  

Look, if you want to compare major league veteran players career AAA players, go for it. At some point you gotta pump the brakes and start comparing veteran players to other MLB players. WAR is a tool that teams need to use to build rosters, but so is WAA, and yes if you never look at WAA you are missing too much of the story to make a good decision.

Sub- .500 starter, or an elite closer for the next decade. 

Try a bite of raw onion after minty Crest. It's... different.

I “liked” this for sheer randomness.

Can’t believe the fan response is this positive.

All I can think about is how well it worked for the Cubs when they signed Scott Baker.

He was at least as accomplished as Pineda before injury.

It makes some sense to take a flyer like this when your team is a loser, but if your expectations are playoffs (as they should be), smells like a waste of resources.

Can’t believe the fan response is this positive.
All I can think about is how well it worked for the Cubs when they signed Scott Baker.
He was at least as accomplished as Pineda before injury.
It makes some sense to take a flyer like this when your team is a loser, but if your expectations are playoffs (as they should be), smells like a waste of resources.

No, it makes sense to take a flyer like this if it doesn't affect your bigger plans and you could really use one more rotation option on your competitive team.

Posting one example of this type of move not working out is meaningless.

Can’t believe the fan response is this positive.
All I can think about is how well it worked for the Cubs when they signed Scott Baker.
He was at least as accomplished as Pineda before injury.
It makes some sense to take a flyer like this when your team is a loser, but if your expectations are playoffs (as they should be), smells like a waste of resources.

Baker pitched well for the Cubs. Two of the three games he pitched for them over the course of his contract were among the best of his career.  

OK, now Zach Britton has torn his achilles and is likely out until late in the season. He's a free agent after this year but the O's would be on the hook for about 12M in arbitration salary if they keep him, so odds are they'll release him.

 

If the Twins happened to make the same move with Britton I assume it will come with the same derision?

They are paying him close to $12M anyway, this isn't an arm injury, and he should be back before the end of the season. The Orioles would be crazy to cut him for no return. I can literally think of no team that would ever do this.