Twins Sign RHP Anibal Sanchez... No, Really

I don't believe it's automatically bad advice. Depending on the age of the player, a guaranteed 2-year deal for even as low as, say, $25M, might be preferable to 1 at $17.4M. Ditto, 4 years for $50M. These numbers of mine are purposely low; but bring them up a little, and they still are a lower AAV and yet preferable.

I'm guessing the white Sox are planning on 2020 also.... And the tigers can't be as bad as they will be this year, I'd guess.

It wouldn't completely shock me to see CWS above .500 in 2018.  And you're right, the Tiger's pitching pipeline is every bit as good and probably better than ours.

Sanchez won't be the 40th man. He will either be the 25th man, and likely a SP, or he won't be.

People are saying this is Santana insurance, since Santana will miss a small amount of time. However, this makes no sense, you don't sign a #5 to fill in for your #1.

This is Phil Hughes insurance.

 

 

Well, they're definitely committed to analytics...

Analytics are those things people use to say a player is better than the numbers. See the Chris Archer threads.  Easy analytics to see. that say Sanchez is better than his numbers. SIERRA says he is league average. BABIP says he is one unlucky pitcher, xfip- thinks he is a league average pitcher. That is 2 ERA predictors and a long held belief. The ERA predictors point to a pitcher that would be better than Gibson or Mejia.

People are saying this is Santana insurance, since Santana will miss a small amount of time. However, this makes no sense, you don't sign a #5 to fill in for your #1.

 

This is Phil Hughes insurance.

Mejia insurance, Gibson insurance, Slegers insurance, last years AA rotation insurance. Anybody but Berrios insurance

If a 40 man roster spot is your only concern with this move then you shouldn't be concerned. It isn't worth zero but it also isn't anything to get bent out of shape for.

Who's bent? You? The statement stands. Not zero.

Yeah, it's a good thing that we don't see anything that resembles that kind of attitude.

 

If they feel a need to hold their cards close to their vest, it is not out of disdain for you.

 I guess you like to be treated like this/that. Corporate history? I don't. Never did. Never will. They are smart enough to know that omission is telling. Sanchez is hardly something that needs played close to their vest, that they don't wear anyway.

Analytics are those things people use to say a player is better than the numbers. See the Chris Archer threads.  Easy analytics to see. that say Sanchez is better than his numbers. SIERRA says he is league average. BABIP says he is one unlucky pitcher, xfip- thinks he is a league average pitcher. That is 2 ERA predictors and a long held belief. The ERA predictors point to a pitcher that would be better than Gibson or Mejia.

So why haven't other teams just as desperate as us for pitching signed him before now?  Plenty of teams could use a league average pitcher, especially at the price we paid.

So why haven't other teams just as desperate as us for pitching signed him before now?  Plenty of teams could use a league average pitcher, especially at the price we paid.

Just pointing out some of the metrics that would hint at this not being a horrible signing. In front of the iron gloved defense of Detroit I would think that could have an effect on a pitcher's psyche. Small sample size, but Verlander pitched much better in Houston than he did in Detroit.

One thing I’ve been wondering is if there is a plan that Sanchez could be a reliever. Last year, a lousy year for him, he still had 9+ Ks per nine innings and only 1.07 BBs the first time through the order, while probably trying to save something for the second trip. Although he has said he wants to start, that could be the makings of a good reliever and I assume his first preference is to pitch for a winning team in the majors instead of the Toledo Mud Hens.

I've had this thought as well. I actually think he could turn into a very good reliever too.

Now that they've acquired a starter, do they have another guy to DL? Or will they cull someone from the 40 man?

And the Twins sign Jake Odirezi, so that makes this thread ...meh    

Francisco Liriano has been good more recently....

I have always liked him and wouldn't object. Take a mulligan - sign him and release Sanchez.

The only people that care about these fringe roster moves are all us commenters on these threads.  Most of the fans could care less about the the 40th guy on the 40-man roster, if they even pay attention the 15 guys not on the 25-man roster.  Most of the fans don't care about who the Twins didn't sign. Yu Darvish is wearing a Cubs jersey, so who cares about him.

 

If you're so disgusted that you choose to go to less games or not buy that Buxton jersey because say Anibal Sanchez is the 40th man instead of say Luke Bard this spring, I'm sure that giddy fan - who makes it all work - that's excited about a team that made it to the playoffs will more than make up for your cut back on Twins expenditures.

I am always amazed at the assumptions that are made, and the twisting of words, and the assignments of something to someone that is just fiction, and someone else's own creation. It must be a projection thing.

I just ran across an interesting article on free agents from 5 years ago.
https://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2017/11/9/16624864/mlb-free-agents-history-offseason
The best MLB free agents from 2012-2013 are a sobering reminder for everyone
The article looks at the MLB Trade Rumors list of the top 50 free agents.  The article did not include who signed them or what they signed for.  The thrust of it was to look at where these top 50 are 5 years later; interesting in that 5 years gets thrown around often as if it isn’t that big of a deal.  The section in quotes below is their assessment of the class.
“Again, this is five years ago. Let’s do a quick tally:
• 32 players who are either retired or playing internationally
• 10 players who might play a role on a bench or in the back of a bullpen next year
• Three players who might play a significant role with their current/future team, but probably won’t
• Four players who are expected play a significant role with their current/future teams
• Zack Greinke
That is, just 10 percent of the free agents from five years ago are still playing at roughly the same level right now. This is a small sample, and it’s possible this was an especially unlucky class. We’ll do this experiment next year.”
Looking at just the top 10 you have Zack Greinke and BJ Upton (unless you want to include #4 Anibal Sanchez). I was not able to determine the other 3 who would constitute the 10%.  Maybe Russel Martin or Melky Cabrera.  Needless to say it is not an impressive list and would have been almost as unimpressive 2 years ago, with only David Ortiz standing out.  Even the #1 at that time, who would clearly be the #1 now as well (Zack Greinke) is a contract that Arizona looks to be trying to unload.
The lesson to be learned is that there is a small number of players in a typical free agent class that will be worth the money 4 or 5 years down the line.  In most cases you are paying for past performance and will be sitting on dead money well before the end of the contract.