Twins Say Now Is Not The Time For Trevor May

 

I posted this elsewhere, seems appropriate here, too.

 

I'd actually be pretty surprised (and livid) if, when the the Twins need a starter, Pelfrey gets the first shot.  I think it'd almost certainly be May, given health and any resemblence to adequate performance in Rochester.  Probably Meyer next, after May.

 

I think the Pelfrey in the rotation ship has sailed, barring catastrophic losses of starting pitching.

 

Of course, eventually I'll be proven wrong on something.  Even if it's about being proven wrong.  

 

I think it depends on the situation.  If one of the starting 5 is injured and goes on the DL, I agree that it will be somebody from Rochester.  On the other hand, if for some reason they need to skip a guy (sickness or can't get loose) then it will be Pelfrey.

 

 

I still haven't seen anyone make a believeable case that real-life prospects with promotable MiLB performance have been blocked from MLB by these old guys that are still around.

 

Really, you think Blaine Boyer is a better pick then Tonkin or Burdi for this teams bull pen? Both Meyer and May have a history of success at both AA and AAA, and are mature by prospect standards, we nee to see Tommy Milone or Mike Pelfry instead of these guys.  Aaron Hicks, despite all his troubles, hit's lefties pretty well, why do we send him to AAA and keep Robinson at the Major League level to presumably play against lefties. You would hope teams would make the decision to go with players that have a low upside, but a known floor when they are contending or close to it. When you have been lousy for 4 straight seasons and have guys that have produced at the minor league level, it might be time to give some of the high upside guys a shot. I'm not talking about blowing up the team, like Houston did, I'm talking about not signing mediocre 30 year olds with no upside to block players that have done well at the higher level of the minors.

 

The Twins are either a poor judge of talent, as evidenced by trading established players for May and Meyer or they are awful at developing players since they don't have confidence to promote them over guys with no upside. Which is it?

 

The consistency "excuse" looks to be plenty valid based on the results.  Consistency is still exactly what we're waiting to see from Gibson and is still talked about.  May sure didn't show it last summer and Meyer is the furthest from it.

 

If Gibson is the best case to disbelieve a "we'll see them in 2 months" viewpoint, I don't buy that there's an appreciable difference between calling a guy up in 2 months vs 3 months.

It would only be valid if the guys they used instead of Gibson, etc. actually consistently produced, which they haven't. All the Twins are doing is trading inconsistent, terrible, performance from a veteran in place of the chance that a guy like Gibson or Meyer, or whoever, might not be consistent. Most young players need to play at the major league level for a while to adjust and become consistent, the Twins seem intent on delaying that forever. 

 

Really, you think Blaine Boyer is a better pick then Tonkin or Burdi for this teams bull pen? Both Meyer and May have a history of success at both AA and AAA, and are mature by prospect standards, we nee to see Tommy Milone or Mike Pelfry instead of these guys.  Aaron Hicks, despite all his troubles, hit's lefties pretty well, why do we send him to AAA and keep Robinson at the Major League level to presumably play against lefties. You would hope teams would make the decision to go with players that have a low upside, but a known floor when they are contending or close to it. When you have been lousy for 4 straight seasons and have guys that have produced at the minor league level, it might be time to give some of the high upside guys a shot. I'm not talking about blowing up the team, like Houston did, I'm talking about not signing mediocre 30 year olds with no upside to block players that have done well at the higher level of the minors.

 

The Twins are either a poor judge of talent, as evidenced by trading established players for May and Meyer or they are awful at developing players since they don't have confidence to promote them over guys with no upside. Which is it?

Have you been down here and watched.  And over at the minors and watched?  If not so, best to trust those that have.  Boyer is a better pick than Tonkin or Burdi now.  Tonkin isn't lighting it up in the minors and Burdi's still a ways away.  Hicks belongs in the minors. 

 

Sheesh, a couple weeks ago posters wanted the best team to break camp.  That's just what's happening and now more complaining. 

You should post more often, paulblair715. Oh, and you were a great player, fun to watch, so thank you for your service.

 

We ALL want to see what Meyer and May can do. We will too, probably within a month or two. My question is, what did people see or not see here in the past few weeks regarding those two? Meyer was awful mechanically in his last start, by his own admission. May tiered in the 3rd inning in his last start I believe, and hadn't been stretched out. And it's not like Milone was looking terrible too. We're all tired of scrap heap guys, but I don't view any of our starting five as being in that category (for once).

 

The problem with starting May and Meyer is you have to jettison Milone and Pelfrey BEFORE you know what you have instead of after. And it's a risky assumption to say you can replace them immediately with someone else from the minors with "potential". So I don't see much wrong with the temporary decision they made, despite my passionate yearning to see the young guys in action.

Its preseason for the kids too so the probably need to be afforded just as much if not more chance and benefit of the doubt than the vets due as far as being allowed excusable performances as they tune up for the season. Don't excuse the vets or say they were just workin on something and then send a high end prospect down for not being perfect.

Have you been down here and watched.  And over at the minors and watched?  If not so, best to trust those that have.  Boyer is a better pick than Tonkin or Burdi now.  Tonkin isn't lighting it up in the minors and Burdi's still a ways away.  Hicks belongs in the minors. 

 

Sheesh, a couple weeks ago posters wanted the best team to break camp.  That's just what's happening and now more complaining.

 

Blaine Boyer has 8 years of major league experience as a reliever with an ERA of 4.63. I think that speaks more for his true ability than 4 weeks of sping training. Really, what is the point of having him on our major league roster at this point? Because he "battles" and is a good guy? If he's truly better than our younger options then our future is much worse than most of us hope.

 

I would debate you that this is the best team too, it's certainly has the most mediocre veterans though.

I've seen this false binary statement elsewhere here and it's a load of complete garbage. There's plenty of middle ground on both sides of that question.

The ability to evaluate talent is quite obviously based on a lot more than two prospects. Not starting the year with them on the MLB roster says little about their development capability either.

I don't understand the idea some have that zero is gained by having them in AAA -- there's absolutely benefit to both the player and the team. I'd personally prefer they be on the MLB team now, but they aren't going to fail by starting 2015 in AAA. Either they'll be successful and get promoted (while also continuing to develop) or they won't. If they aren't successful in AAA, it's crazy to say they would have been successful in MLB by any fashion.

What's false about it? The proof is in the results, and this team has had lousy results for 4 straight years. What recent moves has the current front office made that shows they are up to the task of putting together a winning major league team? Where are all those diamonds in the rough Ryan is supposed to find. Where are all those unknown minor league players we got for an aging veteran at he trade deadline? In the last 3 years, what besides signing Phil Hugh's has the FO done that has turned out to be a big positive for the team. These are things you should consider before rushing to defend moves like this?

 

I think it depends on the situation.  If one of the starting 5 is injured and goes on the DL, I agree that it will be somebody from Rochester.  On the other hand, if for some reason they need to skip a guy (sickness or can't get loose) then it will be Pelfrey.

Agree that it depends on situation. I think they give May and Meyer at least a month or so in Rochester. If they need someone because of injury in the first few weeks, Pelfrey is probably still stretched out and would get the nod. If it goes much beyond that, Pelfrey will either have 1) pitched too poorly in the bullpen to be considered for the rotation; or 2) pitched well enough in the bullpen to be deemed too valuable to take out of that role. 

 

I'd be glad to have option 2 work itself out. I still think it could happen.

 

In direct response to the false binary question about the FO as a whole based solely on May and Meyer, maybe this part got missed...

"The ability to evaluate talent is quite obviously based on a lot more than two prospects. Not starting the year with them on the MLB roster says little about their development capability either."

And the rest of that argument is shifting further and further toward just stating the FO is inept. That's great. It'd be an even bigger mischaracterization of my position and colossal waste of time "defending" them or trying to convince some folks here of anything different.

I just think.........folks are leaning towards this front office as inept. Poor results followed by the same old same is becoming valid through repeatability.

Regarding my above post, I could have misinterpreted what was being said in my response. Sorry if I did. No disrespect.

Jay is at a level of writing that borders on gifted and I'm afraid my poor reading skills may have had me misrepresenting. Not my intent.

 

In direct response to the false binary question about the FO as a whole based solely on May and Meyer, maybe this part got missed...
"The ability to evaluate talent is quite obviously based on a lot more than two prospects. Not starting the year with them on the MLB roster says little about their development capability either."

And the rest of that argument is shifting further and further toward just stating the FO is inept. That's great. It'd be an even bigger mischaracterization of my position and colossal waste of time "defending" them or trying to convince some folks here of anything different.

Actually, I never said the handling of May and Meyer was the sole reason that I thought the FO was failing. I simply used them as another example of potential failure. And your stance feels a lot like mine - in convincing some folks here that the front office can do no wrong, and since they are baseball professionals they must be right, and I must be wrong.

 

We'll have to agree to disagree on this, but I don't think it's a false binary to say that the Twins have been bad for several years, yet continue to manage their roster in the same manner, somehow wishing for different results. In my mind that means they are doing a poor job and are unwilling to change in an effort to improve. We hear Terry Ryan say that things are going to change, but then we see the same old roster decisions. At what point should they try something different? Do they have to lose 90+ games a dozen years in a row? Really what line has to be crossed?

 

 

 

I think Meyer and May could be very good MLB pitchers.   But players tend to click at different times.  Two of the biggest success stores on our team right now are Dozier and Plouffe. I looked at minor league baseballs top prospects from 2009 to 2011 and neither was listed as a top 20 prospect.   Both came up around 25.

 

My point is not all players need to be up at 22 in order to be good and for others and it probably would not have been in their best interest anyway.

 

I am sticking to my theory that from 2002 to 2009 we didn't draft very well and we drafted young high school players that are typically in the minors a long time.  In addition, we had a contending team with solid to good veterans at most positions.  Less talent + fewer available positions = prospects spending a lot of time in the minors.   

 

From 2013 to 2016 we will probablly have Hicks, Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Berrios, and Arcia debut between 20 and 23 (most 21 or 22).  It says very little about our organizations theory on moving guys through the system and more about talent and open positions.  Looking at farm system rankings during these two time periods probably tells the story.

I tend to agree with this, but did you notice in that list of players, only 1 out of 6 is a pitcher, and really there is no guaranty he doesn't get held back until he's "more consistent". It does seem that the Twins are pretty slow at moving pitchers through the system, even college guys, like Meyer who lead AAA in K's are held back. Meanwhile the White Sox move Sale, Reed and Rodon up within months of being drafted and they all excel. Not saying there isn't a gap in talent between these guys, just a huge difference in philosophy on how to teach these guys how to pitch.  

 

There is a definite trend.  But I think this is a causation/correlation issue again.  Did we promote few pitchers because we have a different criteria or did we lack pitching talent to promote?

 

 

 

You make a very good point. There haven't been enough "good" guys in the system to draw firm conclusions. However the last 3 guys - Gibson, May and Meyer, that have done pretty well have definitely been more slowly promoted than is typical for most other teams, that's all we have to go on, but it is a small sample size. 

 

My frustration is that these guys have done pretty well in the minors but are being blocked by guys that aren't very good and don't have much upside.

Whether they were coming up at 22 or 23 misses the point. Meyer has over 200 quality IP between AA - AAA, he led the league in Ks last year. Something not many top prospects get a chance to do, since they are usually promoted. He is 24, going on 25 years old and has little left to prove in the minors. 

 

Gibson pitched well at AAA to start 2013, but was "blocked" by several mediocre arms. Think if he could have learned to adjust at the major league level that year - perhaps last year would have been a better season for him. 

 

May dominated at AAA last year, he has nothing left to prove there, and after adjusting to the majors showed enough to get a shot this year.  

 

If they were blocked by Koufax, J.Santana, Blyleven, Kaat and Morris I understand why they haven't been promoted, but they have been blocked by a bunch of junk. The Twins are slow rolling these guys. I agree that we haven't had enough talent to see if this is part of their philosophy, but you aren't going to convince me that they are holding these guys back for some unknown reason.