Twins Say Now Is Not The Time For Trevor May

diehardtwinsfan · March 30, 2015

No. The Twins moved too slowly with him... with respect to moving him back down to AA/AAA after his first 50 PAs in 2013. Leaving him hanging out to dry in a major league starting lineup when he clearly didn't belong bordered on cruel and unusual punishment. He's never recovered.

The point being, it's an inexact science to know exactly who is and isn't "ready". Only one way to find out for sure.

We're arguing the same thing here Jokin. The Twins promoted him before he was ready. That was my point. I agree he should have been sent down quicker. That doesn't really change the fact that he was moved too quickly.

People look at years of service and forget that unless the talent was exceptional, these times frames are pretty normal. Most high schoolers who are drafted are going to spend at least 4 seasons in the minors, and that's for good prospects. Some guys take longer than that, and it's pretty normal (not just a Twins thing). Bottom line is that you are hurting their development by moving them before they are ready. Yeah, a few guys will shine, but more often than not you end up with guys like Delmon Young (who definitely needed more minor league time) or Carlos Gomez (who eventually clicked but not until his final arb year).

College prospects tend to spend less time, but they've had 4 years developing against superior competition, and international free agents tend to take the longest as they are brought into the org at 16. They spend time in the DSL usually before playing rookie ball.

I'll be honest in that I thought May should have won the job, but I'm not sure where this indictment on the Twins is coming, especially citing guys who debuted young (pretty much the definition of fast tracking in my opinion) such as Santana (age 23), Vargas (24 minus a lost half season due to suspension), Gibson (25 minus a lost year and then some to Tommy John surgery). These other factors are pretty much outside the org's control, and you cannot just pretend they didn't happen. And as others pointed out, minor league success matters too. May wasn't very good in 2013. He was pretty darn good in 2014 and had that calf injury not happened, he'd have been in the big leagues sooner. It's real easy to just look at a guys age and say 'they move to slow', but doing so without context is just wrong.

h2oface · March 30, 2015

Great, a whole bunch of people believe May would help us win more than Milone would in April. Maybe all those people are wrong.

Maybe they aren't. We will never know, now.

diehardtwinsfan · March 30, 2015

You keep presenting evidence that supports the case to consider promoting faster.

So based on that logic, they should just promote everyone with some tools to the big leagues, even if they are only holding their own in the minors? That really isn't a good way to run an organization. These are organization assets, and the idea that they shouldn't be brought along based on how ready or deserving they are seems kind of odd does it not? And tell me how it is that the organization is going to benefit when the guys that do succeed are likely going to spend a lot of service time doing horribly at the major league level.

h2oface · March 30, 2015

While I don't disagree with the comments above, there are differences between last year and this. First and foremost, there is a new manager and pitching coach. Secondly, beyond Pelfrey, the young pitchers most of us are calling for are in line. I can't even remember the names of the guys who got starts, but they are all out of the way now. Will it make a difference? Time will tell.

Exactly. Not even memorable, but taking up starts.

h2oface · March 30, 2015

Some of us thought May and Meyer were in line last year. Then along came Yohan Pino. Kris Johnson. Logan Darnell, etc. and the mainstay is the GM, who decides these things.

Oh..... now I remember. And why them? Because Ryan wanted to see what he had! Same reason to see May and Meyer then and now. But instead, it would be harmful to them, eh? I don't buy it.

Kwak · March 30, 2015

With the exception of Hicks, I believe all of these guys were international FAs, which means they were signed as 16 year olds. Making a debut at 21/22 IS fast tracking, and as for Hicks, I think the case at this point is this point is that they moved too fast with him.

Given the results of the past two seasons and this Spring your statement doesn't hold water. "Too fast" implies that another year or so of minor league experience--and Voila` a major league quality ballplayer is produced. We have waited those two seasons (plus this Spring) and yet Hicks still isn't major-league caliber. He wasn't moved "too fast"--he simply Failed. Hicks likely will never amount to a major league caliber player.

Dantes929 · March 30, 2015

How many variations on this sentence theme have been written over the last 3 seasons?

I have no idea but would be interested. How often have the conditions on these variations been met? In 2012 who were the players that were burning it up in the minors that did not get promoted? As I pointed out we were promoting guys that were very so so in the minors just to get bodies due to injury or just to get poor performers out. It has been a significant turn of events that the last two years the guys that have been promoted have actually done well at the lower level. Last year I respected giving a shot to Pino because he deserved it. May could have been a couple weeks earlier.

What is wrong with the sentence? It requires May, Berrios and Meyer to throw great. If May throws great I think May will be up in May, Meyer in June and Berrios in August. Its not like I am rubber stamping the Twins decision here. I have been for May all along. I just don't see a constant pervasive blockage of talent over the years..

nicksaviking · March 30, 2015

I really wanted May over Milone. But which of these guys should have debuted earlier and at what age?

Trevor May. Came to the Twins at 22. As a 23 year old he had a 4.51 ERA in AA, not exactly allow me to skip AAA stats. At 24 he had a good year in AAA and made his debut, starting 10 games.

Alex Meyer. His first year with the Twins was as a 23 year old. He came off high A in another system as a 22 year old. He spent a year at AA. The most innings he had ever pitched was 129 and he was shut down with shoulder pain. At 24 he was in AAA, on the cusp of breaking through and had a horrific stretch and was blowing through 80 pitches before the 4th inning in some instances. Got back on track, then was shut down again with shoulder pain. As a 25 year old he could not hit the broad side of a barn in spring training.

May and Meyer should both have debuted early 2014. The team stunk so extra team losses should have had zero influence on the decision. I fail to see how pitching in AAA as opposed to the MLB can make a pitcher "more ready" for MLB competion.

Besides, a GMs best pitching coach supposed to be the one at the MLB level? Meyer's is going to have a hard time learning Neal Allen's change up six states away.

Edited March 30, 2015 by nicksaviking

Dantes929 · March 30, 2015

yeah, but NEXT year.

I have no problem with saying that as long as there is reason for it. I would never give up on the season before it started and I believe there is reason for some optimism. But if it goes south I will look forward to next year.. I am in it for the long term and enjoy the process and know you do also in a similar if not identical way. NEXT year will eventually come just like it has in the past. KC was saying NEXT year for 28 years before it paid off. I don't think 4 losing seasons in a row are any reasons to think it will take that long for us.

Thrylos · March 30, 2015

With the exception of Hicks, I believe all of these guys were international FAs, which means they were signed as 16 year olds. Making a debut at 21/22 IS fast tracking, and as for Hicks, I think the case at this point is this point is that they moved too fast with him.

Vargas was draft-eligible undrafted FA (he is from PR)

tobi0040 · March 30, 2015

May and Meyer should both have debuted early 2014. The team stunk so extra team losses should have had zero influence on the decision. I fail to see how pitching in AAA as opposed to the MLB can make a pitcher "more ready" for MLB competion.

Besides, a GMs best pitching coach supposed to be the one at the MLB level? Meyer's is going to have a hard time learning Neal Allen's change up six states away.

So when your team is bad you just skip AAA. I guess I can't get on board with this.

Dr. Evil · March 30, 2015

Seems like when we pick up a Mlb experienced guy in trade or rule 5 or a free agent he is afforded a world of chances. Yet, when it comes to moving through our system each player must show a perfect storm of results at every level and even then they only come up out of necessity.

Now, dont tare me up with examples to the contrary.

My point is, these acquisitions are for filler type caliber players. They seem to be treated more like guys the prospects gotta beat out to get to the show. I don't thinks that's right. Ryan is trying to turn too much coal in to diamonds. It's a fundamental difference of theory that I have with him.

Of course, I respectfully offer this opinion.

Boom Boom · March 31, 2015

The Twins approach to team building reminds me of how the Royals used to do things. They hype all of their big prospects that are on the cusp, but then bring in a bunch of middling, stopgap veterans like Jose Guillen, Gil Meche, Miguel Olivo, and Bruce Chen.

Maybe the prospects aren't ready, but I believe that players can't be ruined forever by an early call up. Even established players struggle at times. If a slump can kill your confidence, then you probably weren't going to be a good player anyway.

nicksaviking · March 31, 2015

So when your team is bad you just skip AAA. I guess I can't get on board with this.

For pitchers, I'm very on board for limited innings at the upper levels. Again, not sure what they can learn in the minors they can't at the majors.

Rosterman · March 31, 2015

It is seldom that a team has such a GREAT starting five that you don't have room for either a work in progress (i.e. the Future) or someone needing a break that ahs the potential to outshine at least a couple of the other guys on the starting staff. Sadly, Milone AND Pelfrey aren't those guys, but they do have nearly $8 million in ront office investment and need to have a roster spot.

Can either outshine any of the other four? Naw. Not even Gibson, I would say. So that isn't saying much.

So, we cut bait and give the job to the most promising rookie in what will be a long line of prospects battling to break into the rotation. The first is Trevor May. Of course, if he doesn't cut the multi-inning slack, you can probably develop him into a bullpen pitcher. He knows this, because right behind him wanting that starters job is Mr. Meyer. But Meyer can't be cocky and will need to produce, because in the wings are Kohl Stewart and J.D. Berrios. Wow. Can the Twins TRULY have FOUR GUYS who could pitch in a major league rotation. FOUR GUYS, and that is not counting anotehr half-dozen that can blossom this year and also go for the prize in 2017-18.

I can live with Milon and Pelfrey for now. Both can be showcased. But I doubt that anyone before July will take Pelfrey's $5 million off our hands, unless he is actually starting games (or unless something happens to Perkins and Pelfrey develops into a closer). Milone is a token lefty. He can get the job done...if he wants. But only if the team is scoring some runs behind him. He will hang on somewhere, anywhere, as a lefty, as long as he doesn't get too expensive, which he almost was this year and definitely will be next, even if he manages to put up Cy Young numbers.

But Trevor May being almost ready? He ahd ups and downs when called up. He worked over the winter. He had the flu in spring. He knows he has to produce, but you can also take a step backwards pretty fast going to the minors, although being the last man standing from the Revere trade means the Twins WILL put him somewhere for a moment, or wrap him into a package for someone if he shows shining life.

Hell, even having him in the bullpen to become the first in line for emergency starts. But wait, we still have Pelfrey and the other million-dollars arm Stauffer.

Shane Wahl · March 31, 2015

Jokin,

Can you list the players in the last six years or so we brought up too early and which we brought up too late? I am just curious on the math from your perspective. It is even at best for me.

Too early: Hicks and Gomez.

Too late: May, but by maybe a month. Nothing glaring.

Not a strong opinion either way: Hard to look back now and say Meyer was ready. Santana and Vargas certainly did not warrant the move by their minor league numbers but they played well. Arcia was up at 22 and has looked promising but has a ton on both sides of the ball to work on.

Just to make a quick note. There was a study about this by Baseball Prospectus and the Twins were the slowest through 2009, I believe. Some of that has changed. I do not know of an updated study.

Shane Wahl · March 31, 2015

Seems like when we pick up a Mlb experienced guy in trade or rule 5 or a free agent he is afforded a world of chances. Yet, when it comes to moving through our system each player must show a perfect storm of results at every level and even then they only come up out of necessity.

Now, dont tare me up with examples to the contrary.

My point is, these acquisitions are for filler type caliber players. They seem to be treated more like guys the prospects gotta beat out to get to the show. I don't thinks that's right. Ryan is trying to turn too much coal in to diamonds. It's a fundamental difference of theory that I have with him.

Of course, I respectfully offer this opinion.

Yes, and this is precisely what drives me totally batty. I think Thrylos, too.

jimmer · March 31, 2015

Just to make a quick note. There was a study about this by Baseball Prospectus and the Twins were the slowest through 2009, I believe. Some of that has changed. I do not know of an updated study.

That report came out in 2011 I believe. I mentioned it earlier and posted a quote from the article.

jay · March 31, 2015

That report came out in 2011 I believe. I mentioned it earlier and posted a quote from the article.

And it has been used many a time before as the damning proof of the Twins inability to promote prospects. I personally think there's missing context in the study's timeframe, but I also wouldn't say the Twins are like the Mets.

More importantly, the study also makes it extremely clear that no advantage has been found by using any one approach over the other.

Edited March 31, 2015 by jay

tobi0040 · March 31, 2015

Jay hit it on the head.

Garza. Liriano. Gibson pre TJ. Gomez started at 22. Arcia started at 22. Mauer made his debut as 20. When we have guys that are elite or they play.

Now we have them again. Sano would have been 22. Buxton and berrios could debut at 21. Re-run this study after this year and I bet we are one of the fastest.

From 2002 to 2009 we took a lot of raw high school players and we were drafting from 20 to 30 in most cases (with many whiffs) Very few of these guys were promotable at 21 or 22. May and Meyer keep being brought up and they needed to skip AAA to meet this standard of not being too slow. Neither was in our system at 22. One had a rough go at AA and the other was still in high A. I think we are really forcing a viewpoint to fit reality here.

Edited March 31, 2015 by tobi0040

jay · March 31, 2015

From 2002 to 2009 we took a lot of raw high school players and we were drafting from 20 to 30 in most cases (with many whiffs) Very few of these guys were promotable at 21 or 22.

This is precisely what I believe that study captures. I'm not foolish enough to think the Twins are hyper-aggressive, but I don't think anyone is saying that either.

I see a case-by-case basis. I can't say I've seen prospects tearing it up in the minors for any remotely extended period of time that didn't get the shot they deserved.

Yes, I'm frustrated that Milone, Pelfrey, Nunez, Boyer and Duensing are all on the roster. I could do with some combination of about three less. I also don't think it matters all that much and it will work itself out within a couple months. That feels like an eternity on the interwebs, but it really isn't...

jay · March 31, 2015

Oh, add Stauffer to that last paragraph... and maybe make it four less instead of three.

bird · March 31, 2015

Twins are continuing the youth movement by looking into 35 year old Rafael Soriano. Haven't we drafted about 50 college relief pitchers over the last 3 years that we could have been "fast tracking" but went with the converting them to starters approach? Really confused on the building process by Terry Ryan,

It's hardly confusing. Nick Burdi, Jake Reed, and Zach Jones are at AA, all may be less than a year away, Chargois, Bard, Romero, and Melotakis were injured all of last year. These guys could all end up being fast-tracked through the system, all as relievers. Of course, many of them will fail. As for relievers turned starters, Duffey made it to AAA last year. Many consider him a top 20 prospect in a loaded system. Same goes for Cedaroth, who throws 95mph and who Sickles for example views as our 17th best prospect. That's for starters.

bird · March 31, 2015

Pelfrey, Darnell, Stauffer...... and that is supposed to be comforting and make one breathe easier?

nater's point was May, Meyer, Berrios, and Wheeler. Not Pelfrey and Stauffer.

bird · March 31, 2015

Hi, i dont post much at all, but i like reading everyones posts and opinions, and I will write one here LOL................I dont think it is that May and Meyer are saviors, but people , including myself want to see what we have, and if it dont work out, we can temporarily replace them with someone else from the Minors with potential, and then also there are always guys in the scrap pile(the Pelphreys, Correias , ect ect) that are available short term, if we need that for a last resort.......with that said, i am fairly optimistic that we can be a close to 500 team............On the Hicks front , i was hoping he would make it and succeed, but he has been given his chance and I dont mind if he didnt make it that we went with a possible platoon system, since Buxton should be here in a year or so, and Rosario possibly too. There is my 2 cents

You should post more often, paulblair715. Oh, and you were a great player, fun to watch, so thank you for your service.

We ALL want to see what Meyer and May can do. We will too, probably within a month or two. My question is, what did people see or not see here in the past few weeks regarding those two? Meyer was awful mechanically in his last start, by his own admission. May tiered in the 3rd inning in his last start I believe, and hadn't been stretched out. And it's not like Milone was looking terrible too. We're all tired of scrap heap guys, but I don't view any of our starting five as being in that category (for once).

The problem with starting May and Meyer is you have to jettison Milone and Pelfrey BEFORE you know what you have instead of after. And it's a risky assumption to say you can replace them immediately with someone else from the minors with "potential". So I don't see much wrong with the temporary decision they made, despite my passionate yearning to see the young guys in action.

bird · March 31, 2015

I have no idea but would be interested. How often have the conditions on these variations been met? In 2012 who were the players that were burning it up in the minors that did not get promoted? As I pointed out we were promoting guys that were very so so in the minors just to get bodies due to injury or just to get poor performers out. It has been a significant turn of events that the last two years the guys that have been promoted have actually done well at the lower level. Last year I respected giving a shot to Pino because he deserved it. May could have been a couple weeks earlier.
What is wrong with the sentence? It requires May, Berrios and Meyer to throw great. If May throws great I think May will be up in May, Meyer in June and Berrios in August. Its not like I am rubber stamping the Twins decision here. I have been for May all along. I just don't see a constant pervasive blockage of talent over the years..

The problem with this argument is that you've put things into an accurate historical context.

formerly33 · March 31, 2015

As much as I would have loved to see May get the 5th spot in the rotation, I can't complain. I did make the mistake of calling myself "Always33," right? I guess I'm going to have to have a new favorite player now.

Otto von Ballpark · March 31, 2015

We ALL want to see what Meyer and May can do. We will too, probably within a month or two.

Still not sure what this -- "we'll see Meyer and May within 2 months" -- is based on. If it's 2014, we didn't go to a non-rainout 7th starter until late June. (If it's based on 2012-2013, when we dipped in the starting well earlier, those were much less stable rotations than the 2014-2015 ones.)

Did I miss something saying that Pelfrey is permanently a member of the bullpen now? Otherwise, isn't it pretty safe to assume he will get a chance if the need for a spot start or replacement starter arises?

whydidnt · March 31, 2015

Whether you agree with the final decisions or not, I think the fact that these discussions are happening points to a problem of roster management. When you have been very bad for 4 straight years, and much of the fan base is hoping a highly rated, and hyped, farm system is going to be the cure, why do continue to fill your roster with Robinson, Pelfrey, Milone, Boyer, Duensing, Stauffer, etc. These are not guys that are going to lead any team to contention or even respecability. Heck they ADDED or resigned 1/2 these guys in the off-season, they actively went looking for mediocre players that would in all likelihood block young guys, who need to learn some at the major league level. Either that or the young guys aren't very good to begin with AND we really don't have any hope for the future. It just seems the FO doesn't have a plan, they just grab whoever is willing to sign for a couple million and throw them out there.

jimmer · March 31, 2015

Whether you agree with the final decisions or not, I think the fact that these discussions are happening points to a problem of roster management. When you have been very bad for 4 straight years, and much of the fan base is hoping a highly rated, and hyped, farm system is going to be the cure, why do continue to fill your roster with Robinson, Pelfrey, Milone, Boyer, Duensing, Stauffer, etc. These are not guys that are going to lead any team to contention or even respecability. Heck they ADDED or resigned 1/2 these guys in the off-season, they actively went looking for mediocre players that would in all likelihood block young guys, who need to learn some at the major league level. Either that or the young guys aren't very good to begin with AND we really don't have any hope for the future. It just seems the FO doesn't have a plan, they just grab whoever is willing to sign for a couple million and throw them out there.

Have faith man, the Twins FO is doing everything right and there's always a way to justify that's the case. So sit back and enjoy the show. I mean, if you like 5 season repeats.

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