Twins, Rockies Talk Tulowitzki

adorduan · July 21, 2015

2016 Twins lineup:

1. Buxton CF
2. Mauer 1B
3. Sano DH
4. Dozier 2B
5. Tulo SS
6. Plouffe 3B
7. Rosario LF
8. Hundley C
9. Hicks RF

That's a world series capable lineup right there.

Not if you have crappy pitching to go with it.

jimmer · July 21, 2015

If the Twins offered just Gibson for Tulo, the laughing from the Rockies front office (and around baseball if others found out), could be heard to the far reaches of the world.

Brock Beauchamp · July 21, 2015

Yeah, you're mixing the very few star type players the Rockies have had with the plethora of scrubs they've had mixed in with the few stars.

Tulo's away numbers as a shortstop are top of the line. And he's had to play a bunch of his away games in decidedly pitcher's parks. He would have seen a drop of his career slashline if he played somewhere else, for sure, but he still would have been the best hitting shortstop in baseball over that time.

Players don't control where they hit the ball. It appears that most players have the same Coors effect on their batting average if you find a sample size large enough to give an accurate representation of the player.

Yes, Tulo is a very good player wherever he plays but it's a mistake to not acknowledge the effect Coors Field has had on his slash line. It's there and it's readily apparent, just as it is with most players.

Most people point at the power numbers in Coors but that's not where most players I've followed get dinged. It's the batting average, which mostly negates the argument that the NL West is heavily impacting his road numbers. LA, SD, and SF don't have average-sapping outfields. They're just normal outfields, if a bit on the large side of things.

jimmer · July 21, 2015

Players don't control where they hit the ball. It appears that most players have the same Coors effect on their batting average if you find a sample size large enough to give an accurate representation of the player.

Yes, Tulo is a very good player wherever he plays but it's a mistake to not acknowledge the effect Coors Field has had on his slash line. It's there and it's readily apparent, just as it is with most players.

Was there anywhere in my posts to suggest Coors didn't have an effect?

DaveW · July 21, 2015

Not if you have crappy pitching to go with it.

Gibson

Santana

Hughes

May

Is a pretty nice start to a rotation in 2016 IMO. You have guys like Nolasco, Milone, Hu, Meyer, Rogers and more battling it out for the 5th spot.

DaveW · July 21, 2015

Was there anywhere in my posts to suggest Coors didn't have an effect?

Don't mind Brock, he continues to ignore the fact that EVERYONE acknowledges that Coors has an effect, then continues to ignore the fact that even his .819 OPS on the road makes him an elite SS, if not the best SS still.

Brock Beauchamp · July 21, 2015

Was there anywhere in my posts to suggest Coors didn't have an effect?

But by having an impact, it diminishes the validity of the argument that Tulo's road numbers are hamstrung by playing in the NL West. Dodger Stadium, PETCO, and AT&T Park don't negatively disrupt batting average numbers but Coors does positively disrupt batting average numbers (and therefore SLG numbers as well).

Hence, the home/road splits. The NL West is largely irrelevant in the argument.

Willihammer · July 21, 2015

A while back Cameron wrote an article about the trade value of Tulo and basically he said "yeah he'll miss 30-50 games/year but he'll still be worth many WARs when healthy." I'm not a doctor (shocker) but I don't think that's how health and degeneration works. In my experience, the human body doesn't just reset after 15 or 60 days rest. Especially after something like a groin surgery (which Tulo has had) or a hip surgery or a rotator cuff strain (which he's also had). The full list is here: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=46724. More likely is that these body parts are never quite the same and you kind of favor them. And you slow down favoring them, and sometimes you wind up hurting other parts in the process.

Edited July 21, 2015 by Willihammer

notoriousgod71 · July 21, 2015

I can imagine how the initial phase of the trade talks went:

Colorado: "We'll trade you Tulowitzki but we demand Boyer in return."

Ryan: "No, thanks."

Brock Beauchamp · July 21, 2015

Don't mind Brock, he continues to ignore the fact that EVERYONE acknowledges that Coors has an effect, then continues to ignore the fact that even his .819 OPS on the road makes him an elite SS, if not the best SS still.

No, it's a rebuttal to people repeating the "NL West is hurting his numbers" argument. I don't see it. Coors positively affects his numbers but there's only a marginal dip when you look at his NL West road numbers.

Dodger Stadium is the only stadium that has crushed Tulo in his career but that probably has as much to do with the Dodgers pitching staff as the park itself (just a .700 OPS there, yikes). The other three parks are within .030 of his career road splits.

diehardtwinsfan · July 21, 2015

Wow, quite the discussion. I think I'm with Brock that I'd take him for the right price, but let's put a few things in perspective. Colorado is in last place and looking to trade one of their better players. Why they would want Gibson, who is going to be expensive when they are ready to compete again strikes me as a bit odd. I suspect it's posturing. He wouldn't be a bad fit, but he'd be expensive by the time they are competing again. Add to it the other negatives that all teams see. He's expensive, declining, and spends quite some time on the DL.

For the record, here's a link to the Rockies' system. It's highlighted by Jon Gray (p), a nice 3B prospect in the upper minors, a couple of nice OF prospects in the A+/AA range, and several good young pitching prospects in the A+/AA range. They have a nice SS prospect in Trevor Story. That's a core that will be arriving and starting their adjustments in the 2017 time frame with a few trickling in next season. Competition wise, they are probably looking to 2018 right now. Add a couple high picks in that timeframe that can be used towards college pitching/bats and they have a nice core. They could probably use some additional depth up the middle, pitching (who doesn't?), and in the OF. On that, our systems line up fairly well. However, I don't see any package around Berrios, Gibson, or Sano. Berrios makes some sense to them, but I don't see the point in getting an established major leaguer in Gibson. Hundley doesn't excite me that much to be very honest. He's having a decent year for a catcher (791 OPS), but that whole home/road thing makes it a bit difficult to quantify. If he wasn't hurt, I would be interested in Adam Ottavino to help with our bullpen, but that's not an option. Latroy Hawkins might not be a bad option either, as he'd be cheap in terms of acquisitions.

Rockies trade: Tulo, Hawkins

What I'd trade.

Ricky Nolasco (more to balance out cash than anything else. Makes the Twins have to cough up more, but it solves a problem for both teams in the short term. Plus, he gets 3 all expense paid trips to LA each year)

Danny Santana

Travis Harrison

Kohl Stewart

Adam Brett Walker (imagine the home runs he could hit out there)

Hard throwing relief prospect (one of Jones, Reed, Burdi, etc.)

That's probably the most I'd do. Not sure if they'd take it or not.

adorduan · July 21, 2015

Even discussing Gibson in Tulo trade talks is pure insanity.

Give up Gibson, the only pitcher on this squad who is truly above average, for a SS who could begin his decline phase as early as tomorrow.

I thought the point was to win in 2015. That seems a lot like robbing Peter to pay Paul and that's not going to bring a championship to Minnesota.

Without Gibson, who actually wins a game for the Twins this October? May? Eh... Maybe if you're happy with a 5 IP, 1 ER game. Santana? Nope, can't play. Milone? Maybe - maybe - you put him out there in game four. Pelfrey? LOL.

^ This. a thousand times this. ^

adorduan · July 21, 2015

Gibson
Santana
Hughes
May

Is a pretty nice start to a rotation in 2016 IMO. You have guys like Nolasco, Milone, Hu, Meyer, Rogers and more battling it out for the 5th spot.

So ,if you aren't giving up Gibson and May, who are you giving up to get Tulo? Berrios? That won't get it done.

Brock Beauchamp · July 21, 2015

Wow, quite the discussion. I think I'm with Brock that I'd take him for the right price, but let's put a few things in perspective. Colorado is in last place and looking to trade one of their better players. Why they would want Gibson, who is going to be expensive when they are ready to compete again strikes me as a bit odd. I suspect it's posturing. He wouldn't be a bad fit, but he'd be expensive by the time they are competing again. Add to it the other negatives that all teams see. He's expensive, declining, and spends quite some time on the DL.

For the record, here's a link to the Rockies' system. It's highlighted by Jon Gray (p), a nice 3B prospect in the upper minors, a couple of nice OF prospects in the A+/AA range, and several good young pitching prospects in the A+/AA range. They have a nice SS prospect in Trevor Story. That's a core that will be arriving and starting their adjustments in the 2017 time frame with a few trickling in next season. Competition wise, they are probably looking to 2018 right now. Add a couple high picks in that timeframe that can be used towards college pitching/bats and they have a nice core. They could probably use some additional depth up the middle, pitching (who doesn't?), and in the OF. On that, our systems line up fairly well. However, I don't see any package around Berrios, Gibson, or Sano. Berrios makes some sense to them, but I don't see the point in getting an established major leaguer in Gibson. Hundley doesn't excite me that much to be very honest. He's having a decent year for a catcher (791 OPS), but that whole home/road thing makes it a bit difficult to quantify. If he wasn't hurt, I would be interested in Adam Ottavino to help with our bullpen, but that's not an option. Latroy Hawkins might not be a bad option either, as he'd be cheap in terms of acquisitions.

Rockies trade: Tulo, Hawkins

What I'd trade.
Ricky Nolasco (more to balance out cash than anything else. Makes the Twins have to cough up more, but it solves a problem for both teams in the short term. Plus, he gets 3 all expense paid trips to LA each year)
Danny Santana
Travis Harrison
Kohl Stewart
Adam Brett Walker (imagine the home runs he could hit out there)
Hard throwing relief prospect (one of Jones, Reed, Burdi, etc.)

That's probably the most I'd do. Not sure if they'd take it or not.

If Ryan could unload Nolasco and not give up Sano, Buxton, or Berrios, he deserves a gold statue outside Target Field.

I'd push hard with Kepler and Polanco. If you're going to get something done without giving up one of the top three, I think both those players need to be in the conversation.

markos · July 21, 2015

Well, anything you take from BA you have to also remove from SLG so the player ends up profiling quite differently once you remove the Coors effect. Average is the one aspect of a slash line that hits OPS twice (once for OBP, once for SLG).

Out of curiosity, I looked up the Rockies' team stats since 2000. It's kinda insane.

Since 2000, these are the years the Rockies led the NL in home batting average: 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015.

Since 2000, these are the years the Rockies finished in the top half of the NL in road batting average: ...

It hasn't happened. They've never finished higher than tenth.

There are a lot of advanced batting stats that automatically adjust for ballpark. On fangraphs, it is wRC+, so we don't have a go around guessing how much his performance will change after moving out of Coor's field. The stat does that for us.

For 2015 so far, Tulo's wRC+ is 122, which is the 3rd highest SS with 200 ABs (Peralta at 133, Crawford at 123). His ZIPS projection for the rest of season is 136, which is almost identical to Dozier's wRC+ (137). So one would expect him to hit as well as Dozier. Different hitting profile, obviously, but the overall value will be similar. Peak Tulo is more in the 140-150 range, which is just as good as Mauer has ever hit outside of 2009.

Thrylos · July 21, 2015

$ for $, I'd say give them E. Santana and call it a day. Add Milone if you have to, but the Twins cannot give Gibson up right now. Add the other Santana, who, if you get Tulo, you have no need for. Plus. Take anyone 24 or over from the Rochester Roster. All you can eat.

Dantes929 · July 21, 2015

Is there a Colorado site that is discussing this trade. I am guessing they would want Dozier, Gibson, Dozier and Perkins.

mudcat14 · July 21, 2015

I'd give up Gibson in a heartbeat (along with D. Santana.) I just don't trust Kyle yet. May would slot back into Gibson's spot, with Berrios and Taylor Rogers waiting in the wings if someone falters or gets hurt.

Don't forget, this winter is rife with FA starting pitching. A contending team with a pitcher-friendly ballpark could draw some interest when the snowflakes start to fall.

nicksaviking · July 21, 2015

so, where do they get that Ace next year or the year after? Because he's not on the roster or in the system?

They don't have one glaring hole, they have SS, C, 1B, and CF.....and 1 guy in the bullpen, and yet have still banked 9 wins. You expect this collection to bank 9 wins next year?

So Tulo is the ace? For anyone who wants to get one in free agency, it will absolutely not happen with Tulowitzki under contract along with Mauer, Nolasco, Santana and Hughes.

Tull does not put this team over the top, don't tie up the future for 2015.

Thrylos · July 21, 2015

Almost half of Tulo's away games have been played in NL West parks (247 of his 521 away games played) and he has, roughly, a .765 OPS combined in those parks. His overall Away OPS is .819. That is almost 55 points lower than his AWAY average OPS.

That means away from the four NL West parks he plays away games in, he's roughly 55 points higher than his his AWAY average OPS...around .870. Or, to look at it another way, around 100 point swing in OPS.

Tulo's AWAY OPS is greatly affected by the away games played in the NL West because almost half of his away games have been played in those parks, and in those parks he has a combined OPS in the .760s. An AWAY OPS in the .760s for NL West parks causes the overall OPS to be dragged down a lot.

Here are some fun careers splits for Tulowiski:

Career at Target Field: .300/.417/.800

Career against the AL (both at Coors and away) : .296/.382/.550

I'd take either

nicksaviking · July 21, 2015

Is there a Colorado site that is discussing this trade. I am guessing they would want Dozier, Gibson, Dozier and Perkins.

Yeah, his perceived value is going to be high in Colorado, he's the face of their franchise. Any idea that the Twins can buy low on his is probably out of the question as the Rockies front office is going to have to deal with the aftermath.

USAFChief · July 21, 2015

So Tulo is the ace? For anyone who wants to get one in free agency, it will absolutely not happen with Tulowitzki under contract along with Mauer, Nolasco, Santana and Hughes.

Tull does not put this team over the top, don't tie up the future for 2015.

Do you think the Twins will sign an ace in free agency if they DON'T have Tulowitzki on the roster?

Vanimal46 · July 22, 2015

I'm taking a page out of Mike's playbook, but it is Mind.Boggling to read so many who believe he's in a decline phase. Tulo is hitting .318/.361/.492 and is in the midst of a 41-game on-base streak. Repeat: 41 straight games getting on base! He's also on pace to play 145 games this season... I know he and anyone else can get hurt at any time, but he's shown durability this season.

Tulo is 2 years older than Dozier. But somehow Tulo is over the hill, and Dozier has developed into an MVP candidate on this site. Are we going to toss Dozier aside too in 2 years when he's the same age as Tulo??

HitInAPinch · July 22, 2015

Interesting commentary from a Rockies fan site:

http://www.purplerow.com/2015/7/10/8928733/an-extra-reason-why-the-rockies-need-to-make-some-trades

Rockies are potentially looking to squeeze down 58 players onto the 40 man roster.

And what their GM is thinking:

http://m.rockies.mlb.com/news/article/137616334/jeff-bridich-on-trade-deadline-jon-gray

And the ever popular: Who would you trade first???

http://roxpile.com/2015/07/19/colorado-rockies-poll-which-player-do-you-trade-first/

HitInAPinch · July 22, 2015

Do you think the Twins will sign an ace in free agency if they DON'T have Tulowitzki on the roster?

I would say, absolutely zero. Acquiring a guy like Tulowitzki is important from an image perspective. Gives free agents a feeling that this team REALLY wants to contend.

The best example I can give [and many of you won't like] is the Green Bay Packers 1993 signing of DE Reggie White.

Vanimal46 · July 22, 2015

so, where do they get that Ace next year or the year after? Because he's not on the roster or in the system?

They don't have one glaring hole, they have SS, C, 1B, and CF.....and 1 guy in the bullpen, and yet have still banked 9 wins. You expect this collection to bank 9 wins next year?

Exactly... We've been waiting for that ace pitcher for 7 years since the Johan trade. When should we set our alarms for the arrival of the next one?

Who could forget the Twins battle in FA for Max Scher.... And Zach Grien...... We were neck and neck for Masahiro Tana..... Oh that's right, the Twins will never, ever spend big $$ on pitching.

jun · July 22, 2015

I'd give up Gibson in a heartbeat (along with D. Santana.) I just don't trust Kyle yet. May would slot back into Gibson's spot, with Berrios and Taylor Rogers waiting in the wings if someone falters or gets hurt.

Don't forget, this winter is rife with FA starting pitching. A contending team with a pitcher-friendly ballpark could draw some interest when the snowflakes start to fall.

Well, quite opposite, I don't trust May at all. I feel he is going to be a high ERA starter or reliever. Gibson does not throw hard, but he really knows how to pitch.

jimmer · July 22, 2015

No, it's a rebuttal to people repeating the "NL West is hurting his numbers" argument. I don't see it.

Almost half of Tulo's away games have been played in NL West parks (247 of his 521 away games played) and he has, roughly, a .765 OPS combined in those parks. His overall Away OPS is .819. That makes his OPS at those four parks almost 55 points lower than his overall AWAY OPS.

That means away from the four NL West parks he plays away games in, he's roughly 55 points higher than his overall AWAY OPS...around .870. Or, to look at it another way, around 100 point swing in OPS.

Tulo's AWAY OPS is greatly affected by the amount of away games played in the NL West because almost half of his away games have been played in those parks, and in those parks he has a combined OPS in the .760s. It seriously drags down the overall AWAY OPS to .819.

BTW, career wRC+ Home 131, Away 119. Not such a huge difference. Most players do better at home.

Edited July 22, 2015 by jimmer

DaveW · July 22, 2015

Almost half of Tulo's away games have been played in NL West parks (247 of his 521 away games played) and he has, roughly, a .765 OPS combined in those parks. His overall Away OPS is .819. That makes his OPS at those four parks almost 55 points lower than his overall AWAY OPS.

That means away from the four NL West parks he plays away games in, he's roughly 55 points higher than his overall AWAY OPS...around .870. Or, to look at it another way, around 100 point swing in OPS.

Tulo's AWAY OPS is greatly affected by the amount of away games played in the NL West because almost half of his away games have been played in those parks, and in those parks he has a combined OPS in the .760s. It seriously drags down the overall AWAY OPS to .819.

BTW, career wRC+ Home 131, Away 119. Not such a huge difference.

Brock's current status:

[ ] not told

[ ]sorta told

[x]TOLD!

[x] Stone Told Steve Austin

kab21 · July 22, 2015

I started doing some research a few years ago with the Coors effect and how using splits is misleading. The first thing you need to consider is the benefit that Coors gives. The perception is that the benefit is totally due to the ball going further and the field being bigger.

That is only part of the story. Before the batter even hits the ball he is at an enormous advantage for two reasons. Opposing pitchers tire more quickly at elevation and opposing pitchers all of a sudden don't have the same movement on their pitches making it much easier for home hitters to hit the ball. Opposing hitters enjoy some of this benefit but not nearly to the same extent (backed up by K and BB rate comparisons of home/opposing hitters home/away stats).

So part of my theory (and what my initial stat analysis showed) is that part of the reason Rockies hitters struggle on the road (the big splits) is that all of a sudden the ball is breaking a lot more than usual and they aren't able to adjust in the course of 1-2 road series. When given a longer period to adjust (like being traded/FA) their non Coors stats improved.

Brock posted some stats a few pages ago that are misleading about Holliday. His Busch numbers are extraordinary when compared to his Coors numbers. Of course his BA is down at Busch. A) park effect BA league wide is down 15 pts from his Rockies days C) Holliday is in his 30's for most of his career at Busch

The only questions regarding a Tulo trade is how much has to be given up and if he can be healthy. The health part of the equation is the only reason that the Twins can even consider a deal w/o buxton/Sano in it or even consider it all. The money really doesn't matter. Mauer/Santana/Nolasco are all FA's by the time Buxton/Sano (and most young players) are in arb. In the next few years the Twins don't have any big contracts or extensions to commit to since arguably almost every position except catcher, SS and front line starter are filled mostly with young and cheap players. FA is a horrible place to spend money and the Twins aren't going to be going after a 150-200M starter regardless if Tulo is here. Saving money on seasonal payroll is only useful if you have somewhere good to spend it later.

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