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  • Twins Owe it to Themselves to Look at Existing Talent in Second Half


    Jamie Cameron

    It’s been a much more enjoyable homestand for the Twins heading into the All-Star break. A 9-2 record against the inept Royals and Orioles and the solid Rays have muddied the waters surrounding the Twins inevitable sell-off ever so slightly. It’s still highly unlikely the Twins make significant noise in the second half, mostly because their margin for error is now so small. Barring a herculean effort in head-to-head games against Cleveland, Twins fans won’t be looking back on 2018 with the same sepia toned glasses of 2017.

    Image courtesy of © Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports (photo of Dereck Rodriguez)

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    I argued in my notes on a hypothetical plan for the Twins’ second half that they need to look inward at their talent pool to assess what they have and what they need going forwards. There are three prime examples of the necessity of this practice; Niko Goodrum, Randy Rosario, and Dereck Rodriguez.

    Niko Goodrum was the Twins second-round pick in 2010. After grinding for seven plus seasons in MiLB, he finally broke into the majors last season with the Twins at age 25. Goodrum received only 18 PA for Minnesota before finding his way onto the Tigers roster in 2018. While it seemed Goodrum was blocked in Minnesota as a middle infielder by Brian Dozier, Jorge Polanco and Ehire Adrianza, he has performed admirably with Detroit, putting together a solid .250/.319/.456 line with a .206 ISO. Goodrum’s isolated power would put him fourth on the Twins, behind only Jake Cave, Eddie Rosario and Eduardo Escobar. Crucially, he’s a RH bat in a very LH dominant lineup, and might have found significant ABs at DH this year with Miguel Sano in Single A, and Logan Morrison a non-contributor. Goodrum is currently a one-win player with Detroit (fWAR) and on his way to a solid first season in the majors.

    Randy Rosario pitched just 2 1/3 innings with the Twins, struggling mightily in doing so. Rosario was picked up by the Cubs and has logged close to 30 innings for them this year, putting together an impressive 1.95 ERA and stranding an improbable 94 percent of base runners. I will say that Rosario’s peripheral numbers look far less impressive. It seems that early in 2018 he has been extremely lucky. It would appear that he is due for a fairly significant regression with the Cubs in the second half, but with lefty pitchers in such short supply, would it not have served the Twins to take a longer look?

    Dereck Rodriguez (son of Pudge) put together strong numbers as a starting pitcher throughout his time in the Twins minor league system. He was simply blocked from an opportunity with the Twins and found his way into the Giants organization. In seven starts and some relief work with the Giants, Rodriguez has pitched close to 50 innings to the tune of a 2.89 ERA (3.42 FIP) is striking out a solid 7.14 K/9 and is worth 1.0 fWAR in his limited time. Clearly the Giants see something in Rodriguez the Twins did not, it’s just unfortunate that there are so many players who have left the Twins organization without getting a big league opportunity, who seem to be seizing it elsewhere.

    There’re plenty of players who would also have made good examples for this article. Aaron Hicks is not a good example. He’s actually a great example of the Twins being patient with a young hitter and giving him ample opportunities at the plate. He just figured it out after the Twins moved on. The Twins gave Hicks 928 plate appearances in Minnesota, in which he put together a 2.5 fWAR. In 361 2018 plate appearances with the Yankees, he already has a 3.3 fWAR. Sometimes things just don’t work out in your favor.

    With regard to Goodrum, Rosario and Rodriguez, I’m not saying they should have kept one, two, or all of them. Teams don’t always have the luxury of being able to give marginal hitters a few hundred plate appearances, marginal relievers forty major league innings, or marginal starters a five start stretch to prove their worth (particularly in a playoff race in 2017). My point is simply when you do have the opportunity, you should seize it. It seems highly likely the Twins will have that opportunity in the second half of 2018.

    Moving into 2019. The Twins will likely have core starting pitching arms of Berrios, Gibson, Romero and Odorizzi. They should establish if Aaron Slegers, Zach Littell, Adalberto Mejia, Stephen Gonsalves, or even Trevor May is well positioned to occupy a back end role in 2019. Additionally, they should establish their pecking order for sixth, seventh,and eighth starters (form and health aside) who will inevitably be called on over the course of a long season.

    Similarly, with their bullpen. Luke Bard, John Curtiss, Gabriel Moya, Jake Reed and Alan Busenitz should all receive some consistent innings, over a period of time without interruption. If even two of this group can be reliable bullpen arms, the front office can focus on other areas this coming winter. It might feel like a long second half, so let’s see what we have, and what we need.

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    Brad Hand; what a great example of exactly what you're talking about here Jamie.

     

    The Padres originally acquired Hand off waivers from the Marlins back in April 2016. Hand was fighting for a roster spot with Miami, but after having a bad spring they decided to go with a pair of "established" left-handed relievers instead.

     

    Southpaws Craig Breslow and Chris Narveson made the Marlin's opening day roster that year. They combined to throw 22 1/3 innings with Miami.

     

    I've been clumsily trying to zero in on this point for awhile now. 

     

    I don't care about Niko Goodrum. Organizations have to make decisions on players and live with them... It doesn't matter to me. 

     

    However... at some point, you have to take a look at it the whole thing and start to question a few things. 

     

    1. The term dumpster diving has been thrown around a lot here. We make frequent waiver claim pickups. Why can't we find a Brad Hand or a Max Muncy.  My suspicion is that they are not given the opportunity.

     

    2. While not caring about Niko Goodrum and able to move on from Niko Goodrum without blame... Any argument that the Twins couldn't afford the opportunity to give him more than 17 AB's is false.The Dodgers were able to identify, Max Muncy, Chris Taylor, Kike Hernandez and Justin Turner despite having a better roster on paper and more money to throw at established guys. My suspicion is that the Dodgers give them opportunity to prove themselves and become valuable to the team. 

     

    3. Trevor Plouffe had an everyday job... everybody is shoved aside so Trevor Plouffe can play everyday. The presence of Trevor Plouffe prevented them from moving Sano out of RF, The presence of Trevor Plouffe prevented Kennys Vargas from continuing a hot run and all of this happened during a year when the Twins ended up with the 1st pick overall. Trevor Plouffe went from everyday for us to quickly NOT WANTED by anyone in MLB. My suspicion is that the Twins over reward marginal veterans at the expense of anybody with something to prove. 

     

    If I'm Jake Cave, Max Muncy or Chris Taylor... The Twins are the last organization that I would want to sign with or be with.  The reason: You will get no opportunity to prove yourself while the organization tolerates sub-par play from the pre-season hand picked choices. I am 99% convinced that Max Muncy would not have gotten a chance to become the Max Muncy of today if he would have signed with the Twins. We are too busy turning to Belisle and Plouffe and whatever half assed vet we can roster. It's a down year... TRY SOMETHING ELSE. Morrison has had more than enough chances. 

     

    The Twins have not been overwhelmed with extraordinary performances over the past decade. We should have found some diamond's in the rough by now. We should have identified some Palka's or Goodrums along the way. Robbie Grossman is the best we have done? 

     

    We haven't created depth because we have been our own speed bumps by not allowing opportunity and we are doing it for no reason at all. 

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    With eight more games left in the division than Cleveland - I think it makes perfect sense for the team to make a big push up to the trade deadline.   If they are six games or fewer out after the KC, BOS, TOR and CLE series in July - they should still be considered in contention.   

     

    I expect that the addition of Santana alone will be a major add to the team.  If Sano can find his way back to the big club - and resemble the Sano we know and love - then you have to believe the team has a shot.  Even if they trade Dozier - they will still have a formidable lineup with Escobar, Polanco and Sano in the lineup.   

     

     

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    I'd be shocked if Randy makes the Cubs' postseason roster, assuming he sticks around that long.

    I thought that too, but Rosario is 2nd on the Cubs in game-entering leverage index, behind only their closer Morrow. They seem to be using him like a key reliever so far.

     

    Rosario could absolutely take Duensing's postseason roster spot. :)

    Edited by spycake
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    I thought that too, but Rosario is 2nd on the Cubs in game-entering leverage index, behind only their closer Morrow. They seem to be using him like a key reliever so far.

    Rosario could absolutely take Duensing's postseason roster spot. :)

    Well duh...Duensing will be used as trade bait, of course.  :whacky028:

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    The worst phrase I have read in a long time is "The Twins plan to hold steady at the Trade Deadline". I don't know if this is a trade deadline smoke screen or more seriously misguided team management plan to sell 12 more tickets this year to the casual fan. 

     

    Plan A should be "How do we compete with Houston, New York, Los Angeles or Boston", not how do we win 2 more games against a seriously weak division. We are 6 games under after a romping homestand against  3 of the worst teams in baseball. We did beat up on 2 of the 3 teams at the bottom of the runs scored against column. Tampa Bay does have more wins than the Twins, but they have been selling off their best assets over the past year or more. I guess those are measuring sticks.

     

    There are still 8 teams in the league with more wins than the Twins. This team should be doing every thing it can to add talent for next year and future years and finding out what it already hason the farm that will help next year. 

     

    Whether it says so or not this team has been standing pat at the trade deadline for 8 years or more, maybe its way past time to try something different.

     

     

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    While it would have been nice to see more of those guys, the Twins were in a playoff race last year so giving opportunities late last year made no sense and shouldn't have been done. The Twins need to do whatever they can from Friday until the deadline to try to get back into the race... At  that point, give some opportunities. 

     

    Goodrum. DFAing him after the season made sense. I don't recall anyone being upset about that, and I was a big fan... still am. 

     

    I'm a big fan of Randy Rosario and was disappointed that they DFAd him... but it was also understandable since he struggled most of the year in AA. 

     

    As for Rodriguez, the Twins made him as good or better an offer than the Giants, but he wisely looked at the pitching depth in the two organizations and wisely selected the Giants. He wasn't going to help the Twins in the playoff chase last year. 

     

    Should Palka have been given a chance? Well, he was hurt most of last year. 

     

    As for this year, if they're out of it, they'll  want to take a look at guys that they have to consider for 40-man roster spots, for sure those that aren't obvious. For instance, Nick Gordon is obvious. They don't have to make a decision on him by season's end. Jake Reed? Yup. Luke Bard? For sure since he'll be a free agent at year's end if they don't. 

     

    There are only 40 spots on the roster, and there are only 25 spots on the roster until September... Have to be strategic. 

     

    This is the Minnesota Twins Front Office bobos response.   All of these claims about there is only 40 roster spots, and we were in a playoff "race" last season is ridiculous.   

     

    First, we were an 85 win team that snuck into the last wildcard spot in a year were other teams were down, then got blown out in the one game playoff. 

     

    Second, if 40 man roster spots are so sacrosanct why did this team have the roster space to give innings to guys like Dillon Gee, Buddy Boshers, Craig Breslow, Nik Turley, Adam WIlk, Drew Rucinski, Tim Melville, Nk Tepesch, and Chris Heston.  Nine pitchers came in and nine pitchers went out.  

     

    The FO made these choices, they were not random events.  They preferred players waived by other organizations to giving our own prospects guys a shot, and what prospects they did give opportunities, they had zero patience with them.

     

    I am on record that this was the wrong approach last year.  I get we are long suffering Twins fans so just the one game playoff felt ridiculously good.  But, it came at a cost of properly rebuilding this team.  Every year of rebuilding should be treated as a plan, not some ad hoc attempt to get to 500, and we threw out a year of that rebuilding.  Guys like Luke Bard, John Curtiss, and Alan Busenitz should have been given extensive opprotunites, win or lose.   

     

    But this year reality has hit back and for every step forward this organization makes, it takes two steps back.

     

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    I have no sympathy for the FO and call them all mistakes. Misguided. It is their job to make the right decisions, and not the wrong ones. The proof is in the results. Period. One can go "aw shucks" Minnesota Nice if they like. I don't see it that way. And Hicks is one of the mistakes, too, although not this front office's. 

     

    And same with the Lynn, Duke, and Morrison choices. If they bomb, it was not a good decision, period. Hindsight, and reality that happened, is the proof. If a contender like the Cubs has room for a Rosario, so does the hapless Twins, even more so.

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    The mistakes have been fairly pointed out, and I don't disagree.  Especially with rostering Kinley and Haley over just about any other options.

     

    I would point out that this FO has had some successes as well.  In regard to Niko Goodrum--I think they successfully avoided a Goodrum 2.0 situation by trading Palacios for Odorizzi.  Not to make this a referendum on Odorizzi's performance--just pointing out they traded a guy who profiles an awful lot like Goodrum before it was too late.

     

    They were successful in salvaging Kintzler off the scrap heap, eventually turning him into a non-40 man prospect--although Watson has all the look in the world of eventually being one of those guys who gets drafted in the Rule V and then struggles on someone's roster.  What is the baseline ratio for Rucinzki to Kintzler's needed to call a FO successful?  10-1?  1-1?  0-1?

     

    Jake Cave, thus far, has been a success story.  All the more so, perhaps, because on a team with Buxton/Kepler/Rosario supposedly clogging the outfield for years, aggressively going after Cave was rather prescient.  I'm glad he's on the team right now, and not Hazelnut Kreamer.

     

    I'm just not of the belief you can slap together 95-100 wins worth of WAR and expect to actually win.  This team is currently in a "playoff" situation for the next few weeks.  
    The lessons learned could be invaluable if this team wants to win at the highest level next year or the year after. 

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    Since 2010, the Twins are 536-692, .436, pure mediocrity. And the word is rebuild? Rebuild from what? How about simply beating KC tonight? It still amazes me that pro sports teams get away with "Well we have to plan for the future." What in the Sam Hill have you been doing for 8 years besides lowering your golf handicap and going to meetings and studying stat sheets? How about going out tonight and winning a baseball game? Then do the same thing 67 more times. You may surprise yourself.

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    We just recalled Taylor Motter today. I guess were gonna take another look at him! ...lol :)

    Probably just until Tuesday when we will need a 5th starter again.

     

    I see Ervin is pitching tonight in Rochester, so we'll probably have to pull him early tonight if we want him available to start Tuesday...

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    We just recalled Taylor Motter today. I guess were gonna take another look at him! ...lol :)

    They don’t need a fifth starter until next week. Seems like a position player helps more than a ninth bullpen arm with a rested pen. It should be a short stay until either a 5th starter is needed or Morrison is ready. Is there a different position player who is a better option for the weekend? Would it be better to have a ninth reliever for a series against Kansas City?

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