Twins Offseason Trade Target: Matt Chapman

Keith Law is still skeptical. The guys at Fangraphs go back and forth. It isn't a fan take at all.

Seems to me that Keith Law changes his tune on Lewis's defense about twice a year.

I'm all for getting Chapman, and giving up the farm to do it. Don't know why we would trade Buxton to do so. If we want better defense, let's not trade our best defender for it.

He's to the point where he's going to start getting expensive, as well, so it doesn't make sense if the A's are trying to shed payroll. 

The trade would start with Kiriloff AND Lewis and I would absolutely be interested in doing that. 

I have three Twins minor leaguers I would not trade.  They are Lewis, Kirilloff and Balazovic.  Might add Graterol to that, especially seeing his is almost ready.

The Twins are close to being a World Series contender.  Their window can last for at least the next five years and probably longer.  The four players above, along with Larnach will add to their ability to win it all at some point(s) between now and 2025. 

The reason I am saying 2025 is because that is how long they have Polanco and Kepler tied up for...or longer with options.  Sure seems to me that is how the FO is thinking based on the extensions they did last spring.  Will be interesting to see if they can get Buxton and Berrios extended this coming spring.  

I have three Twins minor leaguers I would not trade. They are Lewis, Kirilloff and Balazovic. Might add Graterol to that, especially seeing his is almost ready.

 

The Twins are close to being a World Series contender. Their window can last for at least the next five years and probably longer. The four players above, along with Larnach will add to their ability to win it all at some point(s) between now and 2025.

 

The reason I am saying 2025 is because that is how long they have Polanco and Kepler tied up for...or longer with options. Sure seems to me that is how the FO is thinking based on the extensions they did last spring. Will be interesting to see if they can get Buxton and Berrios extended this coming spring.

Exactly this. You just don’t trade players you will use for the playoff run next year and all of those players are on the table to be key contributor. I mean Kirilloff could have a better bat than Chapman in 2020 let alone the future. Lewis better defense and better potential. Hell even Brent Rooker might have better offensive numbers than Chapman next year. I’d center around Rooker and Enlow and maybe another lower prospect or 2

None of Kirilloff, Lewis, or Rooker will be "key contributors" to a 2020 playoff run, and NONE of Kirilloff, Lewis, or Rooker will "have a better bat than Chapman in 2020."

I didn’t say Lewis will have a better bat. Yes Kirilloff and Rooker will both have a better bat than Chapman. He just isn’t that good. I’m not sure why people are putting him on a pedestal. His batting average was below .250. His OPS was above average at best. The homeruns weren’t exactly moonshots. MLB changes the ball again and he will have a few more fly outs. He’s suddenly a .230-.240 hitter and maybe 20 homers. Solid but not great, high .700’s OPS. I would bet money Rooker and Kirilloff have higher OPS than him next season. Lewis is further out but he could get the call if they need him in Center and can play elite CF defense today

None of Kirilloff, Lewis, or Rooker will be "key contributors" to a 2020 playoff run, and NONE of Kirilloff, Lewis, or Rooker will "have a better bat than Chapman in 2020."

This is a big statement that could easily be very wrong.  All three of these players are a good first 6 weeks and an injury at the right spot away from appearing on the 26 man roster.  At that point, anything can happen--just ask Luis Arraez.

I didn’t say Lewis will have a better bat. Yes Kirilloff and Rooker will both have a better bat than Chapman. He just isn’t that good. I’m not sure why people are putting him on a pedestal. His batting average was below .250. His OPS was above average at best. The homeruns weren’t exactly moonshots. MLB changes the ball again and he will have a few more fly outs. He’s suddenly a .230-.240 hitter and maybe 20 homers. Solid but not great, high .700’s OPS. I would bet money Rooker and Kirilloff have higher OPS than him next season. Lewis is further out but he could get the call if they need him in Center and can play elite CF defense today

Pretty bold statement to say that a guy that finished in the top 10 of MVP voting 2 years running with an average OPS of about .850 and 30 bombs a year will be outhit by a couple of guys that are still in the minors. 

If they are that damn good, then we are in for a real treat. And they would also be able to net us guys in trades that could anchor our starting pitching staff right now today. As it is, it would take both of them in a trade to net us a #3 starter.

It's certainly possible Rooker gets some run in 2020. I stand by my opinion he won't be a key contributor, nor will he outperform Chapman.

 

Kirilloff hasn't appeared above AA (where he put up a .763 OPS). Lewis isn't even that advanced.

I'm not talking about him outperforming Chapman (or any of them, for that matter), simply responding to your assertion that none of the three would be a key contributor to a playoff race in 2020.  I'm also not saying any of the three will be key contributors, just that there is a very easy path for all three of them to appear on the roster, at which point they could play their way into contributing.  Kiriloff struggled through injuries, but still had a 121 wRC+, Lewis just OPS'd .975 in the AFL, and Rooker had an OPS of .933 in AAA.

If the A's were willing to take Kiriloff/Lewis + Rooker + Duran/Alcala for Chapman, I'd do that for sure, but as a number of posters have mentioned, it seems like it would take a lot more for the A's to part with a 6 WAR player making 6 figures.  You'd probably have to make them a godfather offer, something like Arraez + Lewis/Kiriloff + Graterol/Balazovic, and even that might not be enough.  After 2020 however, you might be able to do something.

Ok even if it’s not purely a “fan take”, it does seem unfair to Lewis to hold information against him that’s 18 months old.

Here’s from the Athletic at the end of last season:

“He’s making really big steps,” Fort Myers manager Ramon Borrego said last week from behind his desk inside the home clubhouse at Hammond Stadium. “He’s going to play shortstop. Obviously, he needs to learn a lot of stuff. Right now, we’re really on top of anticipation on relays. We’re teaching him.”

.......

“The defense has been part of the positive developments,” Twins farm director Jeremy Zoll said. “There were so many questions from the industry. Is he actually going to be a shortstop or will he have to move to second base or center field? He’s made some really big strides and made some elite plays over there both with backhand and forehand diving stops. You see the athleticism just play.”

https://theathletic.com/508528/2018/09/06/royce-lewis-shortstop-twins-throwing-fielding-fort-myers-miracle/

Maybe Keith Law will re-evaluate; don’t know. First hand reports go a long way, even from non-scouts, and maybe Law has not seen Lewis enough in the last year.

As for this past season, it’s fair to ask: “Why didn’t Lewis play short in the fall league?” But if the answer is as simple as “There were other shortstops on this team and the Twins and Lewis were glad to let him move around the field anyway,” then, that passes the smell test with me, and is not something dubious to hold against him.

This would be a lot more convincing if the two quotations weren't from people within the Twins organization who have a vested interest in maintaining the belief that Lewis will stick at short.  I'm not saying Borrego and Zoll are being dishonest, simply that there is no reason for them to make any sort of statement about Lewis not being able to stick at short.  The first evidence we will get that the Twins no longer view Lewis as a shortstop is when he no longer plays the vast majority of his games there.

Pretty bold statement to say that a guy that finished in the top 10 of MVP voting 2 years running with an average OPS of about .850 and 30 bombs a year will be outhit by a couple of guys that are still in the minors. 

If they are that damn good, then we are in for a real treat. And they would also be able to net us guys in trades that could anchor our starting pitching staff right now today. As it is, it would take both of them in a trade to net us a #3 starter.

It would be bold to say Kirilloff or any other Twins minor league prospects is a good as Alonso, Tatis, or Robles(top rookies this year), and none of them were as good as Chapman.

The post I responded to said that any takes that Lewis MIGHT NOT stick at short were fan takes. They clearly aren't ONLY fan takes. That was the discussion.....

 

I think the jury is still out. It also depends on the progress of other SS in the system, and Buxton's health, IMO.

 

As for trading for a top 25 or so player, with multiple years of control left.....um....not happening.

The jury must still be out or Lewis wouldn't have spent so much time in Arizona playing CF & 3B. 

Exactly this. You just don’t trade players you will use for the playoff run next year and all of those players are on the table to be key contributor. I mean Kirilloff could have a better bat than Chapman in 2020 let alone the future. Lewis better defense and better potential. Hell even Brent Rooker might have better offensive numbers than Chapman next year. I’d center around Rooker and Enlow and maybe another lower prospect or 2

I don't believe there are adequate words in the English language to describe how much I disagree with this take. Usually the Germans have good words for extreme emotions. I'll see if Kepler can help me out.

It would be bold to say Kirilloff or any other Twins minor league prospects is a good as Alonso, Tatis, or Robles(top rookies this year), and none of them were as good as Chapman.

I think Tatis, as a 20 year old, with his .317 batting average, .969 OPS, 16 steals, and 22 HRs in 300+ at bats is out of this conversation. 

If WAR is the one and only measuring stick, his 4.2 in 80 some games is right there with Chapman.

I will acknowledge that he did make a lot of errors, but SS and 3b aren't the same gig.

Chap for Bux + Gordon ?

It would be bold to say Kirilloff or any other Twins minor league prospects is a good as Alonso, Tatis, or Robles(top rookies this year), and none of them were as good as Chapman.

Pete Alonso is easily better than Chapman and its not even close.  He had a .941 OPS in his rookie year and simply passed the eye test.  Tatis was also better.  .969 OPS and high batting average as a 20 year old!   I'll give you Robles, but he still projects to be better than Chapman and the nationals would never take that trade.  You can't just consider past stats but also you need to look at the scouting report of how they will do going forward.  Chapman certainly seems above average but I wouldn't call him a star.

Why would Oakland do this? Chapmann costs less than Buxton, and has an extra year of control. He's never been hurt, and he's better than Buxton.

 

Buxton, Lewis, and the SP in the minors the As most want....that's what it would cost.

It's almost like people are trying to destroy the core of the team.  Why on earth would you ever consider that type of an offer?  Aren't you trying to compete for the playoffs and would be giving away key contributors, all three of which project to be more talented than Chapman? I mean if we offered Buxton for him, I would want their top 2 prospects to even start considering it.