A Logical Trade Partner for the Twins and Max Kepler

I love when folks make such a good case for the other team to trade for a guy that it would appear foolish for us to do so.

As a Twins fan living in Seattle, I would do this deal. I've seen Flexen pitch on a number of occasions and he does have upside. If you could get him and a good pitching prospect for Kep that would be a win.

Seems like a fair trade. I would rather wait till the trade deadline to move Kepler. To many unanswered questions in the OF right now imo.

Woo hoo!  Another boring trade.  I feel like we are on the outside looking in and when Correa goes elsewhere they will say we tried.  

My concern is who plays right field for the Twins.  Saw lots of ugly defense out there late last year.  I mean ugly.

Plus, Keps just might turn the corner once the entire team isn't playing on the right side of the infield.  Yes, he should have learned how to beat the shift, but he didn't.  Would hate to trade him now and see him hit .260-.275 with 20+ home runs along with his best in the league D.  Would hate it.  So for me, they had better get a lot if they move him, preferably a very good young catcher, which is their greatest need.

Batted ball location would suggest that Kepler will benefit from the 2b no longer being able to be in short right. What the Twins have had to play in the outfield the last 2 years would indicate not the greatest outfield depth.  The multiple injuries over the last 2 years show the need for depth

If Miller is more than a back end starter as a ceiling the Mariners are not going to trade him for Kepler. Unless you think that Seattle is desperate enough for an OF.  That desperation might not show itself until spring training

I am not trying to sound snarky here, but outside of MLB Trade Rumors reporting on Aaron's Gleeman's vague Athletic article, has there been any validation that the Twins are truly looking to move Kepler?  I do not recall seeing anything anywhere. 

Flexen is a solid pitcher and Miller is a fine prospect, but they closely replicate what the Twins currently field in their starting rotation and pitching prospects. The thought is worthy but the transaction would not be.

The Twins needs are for pitchers who slot ahead of the current group, which is a difficult task, and a starting catcher. Falvey will need to surprise us. 

2 hours ago, MABB1959 said:

Woo hoo!  Another boring trade.  I feel like we are on the outside looking in and when Correa goes elsewhere they will say we tried.  

Correa is not worth the contract he will get.   

Don't trade Kep just to trade him.  If the Twins do not get a good return, then keep him and if he is not part of our long-term plans, trade him at the deadline.

Would the Marlins be a good trade partner for him?  I keep hearing that they need hitters.

I don't see the point in such a trade. Kep is good in right defensively. Without the shift, his numbers are bound to improve. If he gives up his playboy ways and gets his mind on his game, I see a big season coming his way.

3 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I am not trying to sound snarky here, but outside of MLB Trade Rumors reporting on Aaron's Gleeman's vague Athletic article, has there been any validation that the Twins are truly looking to move Kepler?  I do not recall seeing anything anywhere. 

I think anybody without a no trade clause is available if the return is right.  I think sometimes you have to put a little buzz out there.  If the team gets an offer on anyone that has some level of replaceability the team will listen. If they come out ahead, bye bye player.  The real question is who would anyone want? A league average outfielder, a reigning batting champion. If the FO thinks it is rebuilding time, starting pitching. I would not be surprised if a SP would be dealt if they liked what SWR or Varland showed last year.  I would add that I don’t think any trades happen until Correa signs somewhere.  That will be 2 months of angst for Twins fans if not 3

4 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Would the Marlins be a good trade partner for him?  I keep hearing that they need hitters

No. In Kepler they would get no hitting help. 

For me, it’s not about finding a team that will take him, but rather what team will put up a strong return. I tried a couple fits, but I found the White Sox as the best option. They need a lefty outfielder with good defense, and have a surplus of solid relievers. So my idea was Max Kepler to the White Sox for Reynaldo Lopez: Lopez is a bad starter turned high-end reliever, and will only cost the twins $3 million for a year of control. He fits the trade simulation too.

I would rather see Kepler traded at the deadline. If possible with a minor league prospect to get something better than flexing .  Besides I'm interested in how Kepler plays now that he's healthy and no shift will be used .

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I don’t think you need a rumor, Kepler is the definition of a movable asset. A vet who’s blocking prospects on an expiring contract that’s not cheap, but also not a hinderance for the acquiring team.

He might stay, but the dots connect themselves as far as a possible trade goes.

I do not disagree with your assessment.  But everyone is acting like there is a ton of smoke regarding Kepler being traded when in actuality there really is none.

Chris Flexen may be vastly undervalued. Compare the stats over the past two seasons for righthanders Jameson Taillon, Taijuan Walker and Flexen:

JT 321.2 IP, 4.08 ERA, 100 ERA+, 4.2 fWAR, 3.5 bWAR
TW 316.2 IP, 3.98 ERA, 99 ERA+, 3.9 fWAR, 3.1 bWAR
CF 317.2 IP, 3.66 ERA, 108 ERA+, 3.7 fWAR, 4.7 bWAR

The Seattle Mariners reportedly are shopping Flexen, who is at least two years younger than Walker and Taillon. Flexen lost some luster in August when Luis Castillo bumped Flexen from the Seattle rotation. Despite the demotion Flexen matched Taillon’s 2022 bWAR of 1.3.

Many will point to Flexen’s drop in fWAR from 3.0 in 2021 to 0.7 in 2022. However, Walker has never posted an fWAR above 2.5 and Taillon has not exceeded 2.3 fWAR since 2018.

The Chicago Cubs signed Taillon to a four-year. $68 million contract while the Philadelphia Phillies signed Walker to a four-year, $72 million contract.

Flexen is guaranteed a 2023 salary of $8 million in what MLB Trade Rumors reports is his final year of team control (despite Flexen currently sitting on two years and 107 days of MLB service).

According to Baseball Trade Values, Seattle's No. 30 competitive balance draft pick ($6.2 million) should be enough to land Max Kepler ($5.8 million).