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  • Twins Manager Paul Molitor Fired


    John  Bonnes

    USA Today's Bob Nightengale is reporting that Minnesota Twins manager Paul Molitor has been fired and a press conference this afternoon has been scheduled to announce it. Molitor managed the Twins for four seasons, two of which they exceeded expectations and two of which they did not. They finished this year 78-84, a disappointment after making it to the postseason last year with an 85-77 record.

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    The team's 2017 season earned Paul Molitor Manager Of The Year Award honors, and a winner for this last season has not yet been announced, meaning he is still the reigning Manager of the Year. But his position as the Twins manager has been in doubt each of the last three seasons.

    In 2016, the Twins dismal start led to the dismissal of General Manager Terry Ryan, which would often mean a change in manager as well. But Twins ownership announced that any new GM would need to retain Molitor as manager.

    Which, of course, meant that questions emerged during the 2017 season as to whether new CBO Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine would retain Molitor after their inaugural season was over, especially since Molitor's contract would also conclude after the 2017 season. A strong finish in 2017 and the resulting Manager of the Year award convinced both sides to extend the contract through 2020, though the amount of the contract was not announced.

    This year's disappointing start led to a trade deadline selloff when the Twins were out of the race by mid-summer, but there had been very little speculation that a coaching change was imminent.

    Comments from the Twins:

    “I would like to thank Paul for his tremendous dedication to the Minnesota Twins over his last four years as manager of this club,” said Twins Executive Vice President, Chief Baseball Officer Derek Falvey. “Paul’s roots here run deep and his commitment to the organization, his staff, and the players is special. I have every hope and desire that he remains a part of this club for many years to come.”

    “The importance and contribution of Paul Molitor to the Twins, our community and Major League Baseball cannot be diminished,” said Twins Owner Jim Pohlad. “On behalf of our family, I offer thanks to Paul for his four years as Twins manager and look forward to the continuation of our relationship with him.”

    Comments from Paul Molitor:

    “I was informed today that the Twins will seek a new manager for the 2019 season and I fully respect that decision. I will forever be grateful for the opportunity they gave me to serve in the role as manager for these past four years. I’m going to consider their genuine offer to serve in a different capacity to positively impact the Twins from a different role. Special thanks to my coaches and players I have had a chance to manage and I certainly appreciate the tremendous support I received from all of Twins Territory.”

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    I thought that was what the minor leagues were for? Mollies job was to win games

     

    Well, our minor leagues hasn't really produced anyone since the M&M boys. Obviously there were a few, but very few difference makers.That's IMO, the largest problem with this team. Kids perform in the minors, then come up here and do very little. Maybe the leagues they play are not good? I don't know, just seems like minor league numbers haven't translated around here for quite a few years now. 

     

    Edited by Battle ur tail off
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    I disagree. Managers add almost nothing. Will it be hard to replace him? No. But that’s true for pretty much anyone with that title IMO. Especially in today’s game.

    Talent is king, whoever the new guy is better hope he is afforded a lot more of it.

    I will have to think about it. You may be right.

     

    I would hope a manager with superior relational skills would help get the best out of players and also right the ship quicker when things go bad.

     

    I wonder if a manager is a consideration at all in signing a contract either as a free agent or to remain with the team. Maybe not. Money is king here.

     

    Machines do a lot now but I do wonder if managing playing time, bullpen, batting order, match ups and the like still has an important human element.

     

    I guess I am relectant to agree that managers add almost nothing because then I have wasted a good amount of time being a critic of their decisions. If managers add almost nothing then that doesn’t leave much to criticize.

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    Nobody comes up as a finished product.

    Development has to continue at the mlb level.

    Of course but basic fundamentals are what he was criticized for. I think there are plenty of problems within the organization and it’s a little too convenient to blame it all on Molitor

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    It is debatable, unfortunately any attempts to quantify become loaded with assumptions. I think Passan had an article recently where a manager was quoted as saying they basically did nothing, but this is an opinion I have that doesn’t have data. Just a hunch with a lot of plausible speculation.

    I think it’s more nuanced than “nothing”. I also think it’s so minute and unquantifiable that it’s uselsss to argue about it.

     

    I don’t think it’s coincidence that Showalter always overperforms for a couple of years... and then unpeforms for a couple of years before getting the axe. Or that Gardenhire had a solid run of overperformance before collapsing. Or that Molitor has been up and down, as weird as that sounds to say.

     

    Or that Maddon is almost *always* good.

     

    How can we quantify that as outsiders? Um... yeah. We can’t.

     

    So we should evaluate the themes, ideas, and styles of managers... and STFU about the rest because we’re talking out of our asses.

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    The problem is the lense. We always view through a narrow one because extrapolating manager trends is a far more difficult thing to do. It's hard to divorce talent from decision making. Hard to know what is driving things behind the scenes.

     

    My opinion is the Gardy/Showalter pops have more to do with personality change. Like how an office picks up the slack cuz new management has arrived and you want to make a good first impression.

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    One way to try to measure the value of a manager has been to look at runs scored and try to see if they more more than an expected number of wins. Can a manager win more than their share of close games? I don’t think this measures has shown a significant impact.

     

    It is very difficult to measure how many extra runs a coaching staff added or prevented due to the preparation of the players and the relationships they build towards getting the most out of a player. How would that be measured? The Twins front office needs to find that manager who is better than almost anyone else at preparing and getting the most out a player’s ability.

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    I guess I feel the job of a manager, and his coaches, is tough to quantify. I think they and their staff CAN help influence/teach a young player. I think they CAN create a lineup that works well together and balanced out. I think they CAN stress fundamentals and make sure the team plays better and doesn't beat themselves. And I think they CAN have a feel on the use and pulling of pitchers.

     

    How much of an influence is what's so hard to measure. I actually think they have a stronger influence over LOSING games rather than winning them...if that makes sense.

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    One way to try to measure the value of a manager has been to look at runs scored and try to see if they more more than an expected number of wins. Can a manager win more than their share of close games? I don’t think this measures has shown a significant impact.

     

    It is very difficult to measure how many extra runs a coaching staff added or prevented due to the preparation of the players and the relationships they build towards getting the most out of a player. How would that be measured? The Twins front office needs to find that manager who is better than almost anyone else at preparing and getting the most out a player’s ability.

    I’d be curious to know how TK did in that regard. His teams always seemed to overacheive. Possible exceptions being 1992 and 1997.

     

    I may have to look it up.

    Edited by yarnivek1972
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    I looked up TKs pythag wins vs actual per baseball ref.

     

    1987: 85 actual, 79 pythag

    1988: 91, 90

    1989: 80, 81

    1990: 74, 74

    1991: 95, 94

    1992: 90, 91

    1993: 71, 68

    1994: 53, 49

    1995: 56, 57

    1996: 78, 79

    1997: 68, 73

    1998: 70, 73

    1999: 63, 65

    2000: 69, 69

    2001: 85, 81

     

    Gardy’s tenure

     

    2002: 94, 86

    2003: 90, 85

    2004: 92, 87

    2005: 83, 84

    2006: 96, 93

    2007: 79, 80

    2008: 88, 89

    2009: 87, 86

    2010: 94, 92

    2011: 63, 62

    2012: 66, 68

    2013: 66, 63

    2014: 70, 75

     

    Molitor’s tenure

     

    2015: 83, 81

    2016: 59, 66

    2017: 85, 83

    2018: 78, 77

     

     

    If my math is correct, TK was + 5. Gardy was + 19.

     

    Not sure if that proves anything. Tom Kelly won 16 playoff games that few expected him to.

    Edited by yarnivek1972
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    I looked up TKs pythag wins vs actual per baseball ref.

    1987: 85 actual, 79 pythag
    1988: 91, 90
    1989: 80, 81
    1990: 74, 74
    1991: 95, 94
    1992: 90, 91
    1993: 71, 68
    1994: 53, 49
    1995: 56, 57
    1996: 78, 79
    1997: 68, 73
    1998: 70, 73
    1999: 63, 65
    2000: 69, 69
    2001: 85, 81

    Gardy’s tenure

    2002: 94, 86
    2003: 90, 85
    2004: 92, 87
    2005: 83, 84
    2006: 96, 93
    2007: 79, 80
    2008: 88, 89
    2009: 87, 86
    2010: 94, 92
    2011: 63, 62
    2012: 66, 68
    2013: 66, 63
    2014: 70, 75

    Molitor’s tenure

    2015: 83, 81
    2016: 59, 66
    2017: 85, 83
    2018: 78, 77


    If my math is correct, TK was + 5. Gardy was + 19.

    Not sure if that proves anything. Tom Kelly won 16 playoff games that few expected him to.

     

     

    Hey good work on that research. I don't think those numbers are terribly important though. Straight up "record in close games" is probably a better tool, but really even that is not perfect. When you massively overtax your bullpen and always take your starter out at 100 pitches no matter what, even when the pen is taxed... and so your pen gives up 6 runs. That ruins "close games" AND it affects the pyth. W/L calculation.

     

    Pyth is pretty much just if you are scoring more runs than your opponent overall. 

     

    It's an interesting thought. Because a W/L better than your Pyth could very well mean that you are winning all your close games and only losing when you get blown out. But that's one of those things that in practice probably just isn't as clean cut as that.  

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    Hawk Harrelson is saying Molitor is a great baseball guy so Levine and Falvey are idiots for firing him. And "if they were so smart they'd be on wall street".

     

    As far as I'm concerned, if there was any doubt whether that was the right move (there wasn't any) Harrelson getting up in arms about it is the final seal of approval that it was right. That guy's baseball knowledge is a vortex of nothingness. 

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    Hawk Harrelson is saying Molitor is a great baseball guy so Levine and Falvey are idiots for firing him. And "if they were so smart they'd be on wall street".

     

    Why? There is more profit in baseball. :)

    Edited by Doomtints
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