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  • Twins Game Recap (9/5): Eddie Rosario Throw Seals 2-1 Victory


    Matthew Lenz

    On a night when the offense couldn’t catch a break the Twins were, somewhat surprisingly, carried by Martin Perez and the Polanco-less defense. Perez outshines Eovaldi, the defense saves the day, and the Twins win the rubber match 2-1 over the Red Sox.

    Image courtesy of FanGraphs

    Twins Video

    Box Score

    Perez: 6.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 1 K, 70.0% strikes (49 of 70 pitches)

    Bullpen: 3.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K

    Home Runs: None

    Multi-Hit Games: None

    Top 3 WPA: Perez (.242), Rogers (.226), Duffey (.151)

    Bottom 3 WPA: Cruz (-.172), Cron (-.161), Kepler (-.152)

    Martin Perez starts strong in September, Bullpen holds the lead

    Hopefully tonight was a sign of things to come for Perez. Through four innings Perez had a strike percentage of 82 percent and had induced just three hard hits as defined by Baseball Savant. If it wasn’t for a fluke home run by Mookie Betts, which had an xBA of .250, he would have pitched four perfect innings using fewer than than 40 pitches. Things started to unravel a bit in sixth inning when Perez lost control of the strike zone, allowed a rocket double to Betts off the Green Monster, followed by a Bogaerts walk and an errant pick-off attempt before escaping the inning without giving up a run. After just 70 pitches and six innings from Perez, the bullpen took over. As has been the case since the All-Star break, the bullpen was dominant, sending May and Duffey to shut down the seventh and eighth, respectively, followed by Romo and Rogers teaming up to close out the ninth.

    Despite good contact, offense does just enough to reward Perez

    Throughout the evening the Twins expected batting average was hovering right around the .300 mark, per Baseball Savant, but ultimately ended the night batting .077. That should tell you how well they actually hit the ball tonight but were just the victims of some bad luck. Loading the bases twice resulted in just two runs and they hit into four double plays, their seventh in the last two games, despite Cron’s batted balls having an xBA of .550 and .480. Per BaseballReference, this was the fourth time in Twins history and 11th time in franchise history they won a game with only two hits and zero homeruns.

    Defense picks up offense, for a change

    It’s no secret that the defense has been struggling for a while after looking great at the beginning of the year. Outside of the errant throw from Perez, which did not lead to a run, the Twins defense shined in a game the offense needed the “pick me up”. In the second and third innings, Sano made two plays at third base that could have easily been hits. Cron made a nice diving play on a ball that was awkwardly hit just short of first base and barely in foul territory. Jake Cave robbed an extra-base hit from Chirstian Vazquez in the seventh which had a catch probability of 25 percent, per the FSN broadcast. Everything was capped off on the final play of the game when Eddie Rosario threw out Rafael Devers, the tying run, after Martinez hit a ball high off the Green Monster.

    https://twitter.com/TFTwins/status/1169794843779973122

    Postgame With Baldelli

    Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

    Click here for a review of the number of pitches thrown by each member of the bullpen over the past five days.

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    But everything OPS stands for is situational baseball.  For Example last night Sano took two walks instead of swinging at pitches out of the zone to try and hit a Home Run.  Those two walks created the only runs scored in the game last night.  Without the Sano walks we score no runs at all and Eddie can't even be the hero.  Every situation counts and that is what OPS measures.

     

    I will give you that Rosario has elite wrists and hand eye coordination and can turn on a ball better than a lot of batters.  He has an elite skill there but he wastes it by not being patient and getting good pitches to hit and in the end that makes him more average overall.  I love the guy like everyone else does when he comes up big but other players come up big too not just Eddie.  I love his passion and that he cares about winning the game in a good way, but the numbers don't lie and his current production looks replaceable to me.

    I get your point, but "lies, damn lies, and statistics." Eddie does not play the game like other players. Eddie doesn't have the same approach at the plate, the same decision-making on the base paths or in the field, nor the same level of concentration as many players on this team. However, he's different. There's something special he brings to the field and to the club house.

     

    We are lucky to have so much depth in the outfield in this organization. And it seems we should be able to trade from this position in the off-season. However, Eddie is a big part of this team. He's gone through the worst seasons and hung in there. He does what he does, and often wins us games. I don't think he's easily replaceable.

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    Seeing this has been dump on Eddie week, there is something else I have noticed.  When the Twins have a win with their RBK outfield playing, the player's meeting in center is different than when one or more are missing.  Just more alive, more energy.  

     

    Could be 100% wrong, but I believe there is a huge risk to this team should they trade any of the three.  So many players/coaches talk about team chemistry.  Take away a key part of the core of the group could cause the team to go flat next year, couldn't it?

     

    That is a bit of a slippery slope you are creating there.  I presume that means you would never want to replace any players on the current roster for fear of messing with chemistry then.  So no trades, no FA no new players because chemistry could be broken.  I don't think there is a team in the league that does that.  Most of the acquisitions we got this year seemed to fit right in and actually enhance the chemistry of the team so that in itself might blow a hole in your theory.

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    That is a bit of a slippery slope you are creating there.  I presume that means you would never want to replace any players on the current roster for fear of messing with chemistry then.  So no trades, no FA no new players because chemistry could be broken.  I don't think there is a team in the league that does that.  Most of the acquisitions we got this year seemed to fit right in and actually enhance the chemistry of the team so that in itself might blow a hole in your theory.

    OK, I'll admit it.  I like Rosario, really like him.  Have liked him since that summer long ago when I checked the box score down at ETon every day to see whether he or Sano had hit a home run.  Also think he is one of the core players of this team, both on and off the field.

     

    Will you admit you don't like him?

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    OK, I'll admit it.  I like Rosario, really like him.  Have liked him since that summer long ago when I checked the box score down at ETon every day to see whether he or Sano had hit a home run.  Also think he is one of the core players of this team, both on and off the field.

     

    Will you admit you don't like him?

     

    I really like him too followed him the whole way through.  I have looked at pitches he has hit and wondered how he could even reach them.  He plays with spirit no doubt and that is fun to see but his one fatal flaw does really irk me and it really brings down his value as a player if you ask me.

     

    I am not a huge chemistry believer because most of the time it is an answer in search of a problem.  How many trades involve a GM saying this guy only hits 200 but the chemistry he brings should put us over the top?  Or we really need to draft good chemistry guys over guys that have 5 tool potential?  Just how many bad chemistry guys are there out there?  Every story Seth has ever written is about what hard workers these MiLB players are and what good team players they are.  Where is the article about the bad seed?

     

    That being said I know every team wants to create a family type atmosphere or brotherhood.  Wants the guys to be loose and feel supported.  From what I read last year it sounded like the club house was a bit toxic and that is probably the main reason they brought in Baldelli.  A manger closer to the age of some of the players who seems to stress keeping guys fresh and keeping them loose. 

     

    Part of the reason they brought in Cruz is that he is a good club house guy and he has proven that he is.  Also at least early in the year the players frequently commented on how they liked the guys on the team and that the club house was relaxed and a fun place to be. So there is likely more to it than I like to admit sometimes.

     

    My point is ultimately though that it is about production.  Manny Machado has value because of his past and future projected production not because of any chemistry concerns. It just doesn't work that way in todays game.  The statistical edge is always at work and I don't see chemistry in the list of tools at fangraphs.  Teams like most all of their players but production is key and there are service time and payroll constraints as well as age\injury concerns to boot.  They all play a role in who is kept and who is let go.

     

    I like a lot of things about Eddie but he is replaceable just like lots of players on lots of teams.

    Edited by Dman
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    I get your point, but "lies, damn lies, and statistics." Eddie does not play the game like other players. Eddie doesn't have the same approach at the plate, the same decision-making on the base paths or in the field, nor the same level of concentration as many players on this team. However, he's different. There's something special he brings to the field and to the club house.

     

    We are lucky to have so much depth in the outfield in this organization. And it seems we should be able to trade from this position in the off-season. However, Eddie is a big part of this team. He's gone through the worst seasons and hung in there. He does what he does, and often wins us games. I don't think he's easily replaceable.

     

    I hear you he has passion and you can't help but see his love for the game.  I just wish he enjoyed the game of cat and mouse with the pitcher more.   If he did I think he could be an elite player instead of one closer to average.  If he could do that I could see the Twins trading Larnach or Raley or maybe even Kiriloff.  But if they play the game better and have fewer weaknesses then why keep Eddie?  They are going to hit walk off Home runs just like Eddie as well as take walks and work the pitcher which he can't seem to do.  Hard to match Rosario's passion but this game is about production and winning not much else. 

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    I get your point, but "lies, damn lies, and statistics." Eddie does not play the game like other players. Eddie doesn't have the same approach at the plate, the same decision-making on the base paths or in the field, nor the same level of concentration as many players on this team. However, he's different. There's something special he brings to the field and to the club house.

     

    We are lucky to have so much depth in the outfield in this organization. And it seems we should be able to trade from this position in the off-season. However, Eddie is a big part of this team. He's gone through the worst seasons and hung in there. He does what he does, and often wins us games. I don't think he's easily replaceable.

    I agree.  He brings the "somebody make a play" quality to the games that stats miss.

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    I hear you he has passion and you can't help but see his love for the game.  I just wish he enjoyed the game of cat and mouse with the pitcher more.   If he did I think he could be an elite player instead of one closer to average.  If he could do that I could see the Twins trading Larnach or Raley or maybe even Kiriloff.  But if they play the game better and have fewer weaknesses then why keep Eddie?  They are going to hit walk off Home runs just like Eddie as well as take walks and work the pitcher which he can't seem to do.  Hard to match Rosario's passion but this game is about production and winning not much else. 

    I hear ya, but really a lot of what you say could have been said about a young Oliva. Bad ball hitter when he came up, etc. But even with that he was ROY. And you ain't wrong when you say Eddie could be special if he learned the strike zone more. Oliva did that. Sano is doing that.  I hope the coaches point to Miggie and get that  point across to Eddie. So for me, I'd rather keep Eddie than trade him.  But in the end, they will offer extensions to Buck and Eddie and the players will decide whether to stay or go. I'm so glad we locked up Keps and Polanco. If Eddie signs an extension I suspect Alex pencils in at 1B in a year or so. If Buck leaves then Lewis might  go to CF. I see this team reloading with new flame thrower starters next year, although Busdar is getting his "welcome to the show" break in treatment. He'll get better. Anyway, I am optimistic for this group of guys.

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    source?

     

    Well, according to this website bbref.com, Rosario has 47 career assists.

    Chief was responding to a statement that "I have seen Eddie gun down several dozen base runners trying to stretch in the past couple of years".

     

    Most of the 47 occurred before "the past couple of years", when teams were still challenging him. He had 9 assists last season and 7 so far this season.

     

    I felt, same as Chief apparently, that there was no need to exaggerate to such a degree. Doing that cheapens the praise for Rosario's arm rather than enhances it.

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