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  • Twins Game Recap (9/12): Twins Drop Series to Nationals, Cleveland 3.5 Back


    Matthew Lenz

    The Twins drop the rubber match to the Washington Nationals as they were outhit 14-12 and outscored 12-6. Kyle Gibson was hit hard but showed some positive signs while most of the offense scuffled against left-hander Patrick Corbin.

    Image courtesy of FanGraphs

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    Box Score

    Gibson: 4.2 IP, 8 H, 5 ER (6 R), 4 BB, 5 K, 6.13% strikes (57 of 93 pitches)

    Bullpen: 4.1 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 4 K

    Home Runs: Cruz (36), Schoop (22)

    Multi-Hit Games: Cruz (2-for-5), Schoop (3-for-5)

    Top 3 WPA: Schoop (.092), Castro (.071), Cruz (.061)

    Bottom 3 WPA: Gibson (-.302), Stewart (-.120), Stashak (-.47)

    Gibson Hit Hard in Return to Mound but It Wasn’t All Bad

    After missing two starts Gibby returned to the mound with the tough task of facing the Washington Nationals who were going for the series win. The Nationals are a top 10 team in all of baseball when it comes to facing right-handed pitching as well as being one of the best teams in baseball since June 1. Throughout the evening Washington was hovering around .380 in xBA, per Statcast, which means Gibson was getting hit hard which was mostly due to not hitting his spots. For example, Adam Eaton’s home run to lead off the fifth inning was left middle/middle, and this was a recurring issue through the night for Gibson. It also didn’t help that he walked four hitters. That said, there were some positive things to note.

    Gibson’s fastball velocity was actually a tick or two above his average in the first inning before settling in at about 94 mph, which is where he normally sits. A good sign considering the symptoms of ulcerative colitis include weight loss and fatigue. What might have been the most impressive thing from his start tonight was the movement of his off-speed pitches which induced a 21 percent swinging strike rate against a team who Fangraphs has ranked as third in all of baseball in contact percentage. In all, it wasn’t a terrible start and may be somewhat expected considering his recent illness coupled with the line-up he was facing but there were still some positive takeaways.

    Cruz, Schoop, Garver Hit Well, Rest of Line up Squanders Opportunities

    As the Nationals were smoking the ball from the top of the order to the bottom, the Twins struggled to make hard contact against the soft-throwing lefty Patrick Corbin. Through the evening the Twins xBA was in right around .275 give or take 10 points or so before plummeting in the later innings to the low .200’s. Rosario responded to a Rendon homer in the top of the first with a RBI single to right scoring Luis Arraez who had doubled on a ball that had an xBA of .020 (yes, the “2” is in the right spot).

    Cruz blasted his 36th home run in the bottom of the third while Mitch Garver was about two feet away from hitting his 31st home run of the season in the bottom of the fifth. Other than Schoop, who hit his 22nd home run in the eighth as well as a 109 mph line drive at an umpire, the rest of the offense was pretty stagnant. This was a little surprising as this was the best lineup the Twins had in the three game series with the Nationals.

    Postgame With Baldelli

    https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1172370838244319233

    Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

    Click here for a review of the number of pitches thrown by each member of the bullpen over the past five days.

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    They aren't up because this front office is risk adverse. Or maybe they plan to trade them, and they are more valuable this way. Either way, they are more worried about the future than the present. Floor over ceiling, just like always.

    Or maybe it’s just too early for these guys - remember how we rushed Hicks and Buxton to the majors before they were ready? I would have called up Rooker, he should be healthy now.
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    Or maybe it’s just too early for these guys - remember how we rushed Hicks and Buxton to the majors before they were ready? I would have called up Rooker, he should be healthy now.

    Will be interesting to see how this team handles Sept next year when we can only expand to 28 players. We'd be fresh out of team if this were the rule this year. I think the FO would have made different choices this year if that were the rule. Maybe it will be a positive. With very limited call ups you're more likely to see a Kiriloff or Rooker added I think.

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    Tonight or Sunday are the only games in this series that the Twins have a chance at winning.

     

    They face Clevinger on Saturday, who absolutely dominates the Twins. That will be an L.

    I agree, yet, whenever I think something like that the unexpected happens.  Doubt there is much of a chance but Thorpe or Schmeltzer could throw 5 shutout innings after Dobnak does the same in an inning as the opener.  Arraez should get a hit and score giving the Twins a 1-0 win.

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    Hard to come to the conclusion that in-game management is a strength of Rocco's...so far. Last night, was one of the more bizarre examples of that (although, I doubt it impacted the outcome).

    Edited by jkcarew
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    Tonight or Sunday are the only games in this series that the Twins have a chance at winning.

     

    They face Clevinger on Saturday, who absolutely dominates the Twins. That will be an L.

     

    Shane Bieber is pitching Sunday, he's going to get Cy Young consideration and is arguably Cleveland's best pitcher.

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    I agree that Stewart should only be used in a blow out and should be moved off the forty one way or another after the season. If he makes it back to the organization again I would only let him back on the forty if he seriously earned it.

    Overall this has been the most fun Twins season in a long time and the rest of this year is going to be a ride! Go Twins!

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    Well, the 6th run was charged to Gibson and scored on a passed ball by Garver -- so maybe if the bullpen *and* catching holds, it would have been a 6-5 win. Otherwise, if just the bullpen, a 6-6 tie -- just like in Japan!

     

    Call it my own advanced stat. Inherited runners scored I credit to the pitcher who came in to relieve and didn't. They were on the mound. It is an outdated custom to charge the pitcher that has left the game, in my opinion, especially with two outs. Plus, the target was low, and on the ground as he threw it, and Stashak completely blew the pitch, and missed the target by 4 feet. Sure, Garver should have still caught it, and it is an unearned run, but Stashak also loafed to the cover the plate, and if he was there, there could have been a play at the plate. But you are right, it was charged to Gibson, as if he made the play happen. 

     

    Plus, there is no guarantee that the Nats would have used the same relievers that the Twins scored on. More for your refute. My point remains.... the relief choices were from Rochester, and a sad state of affairs, and another game seemingly given up on too soon, and now in a penant race that one cannot afford to give any game away for player development.

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    ....I will add one thing about Pineda - I do not want him back, talk about letting down your team.  Such terrible timing and devastating impact. 

     

    Pineda, as a team player, could have informed the FO and Baldelli about what was going on. Maybe he did. But it seems as everyone found out except Pineda and his agent just before the suspension, and after his last start. As these things go, he probably knew this was the final outcome before the trade deadline, too. That makes his choices and behavior exhibit even more a lack of being a good teammate and ultimately more selfish. Informed, the FO maybe would have been encouraged to actually do something about our starting pitching depth, you know..... since they are so awesome and innovative.

    Edited by h2oface
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    Call it my own advanced stat. Inherited runners scored I credit to the pitcher who came in to relieve and didn't. They were on the mound. It is an outdated custom to charge the pitcher that has left the game, in my opinion, especially with two outs. Plus, the target was low, and on the ground as he threw it, and Stashak completely blew the pitch, and missed the target by 4 feet. Sure, Garver should have still caught it, and it is an unearned run, but Stashak also loafed to the cover the plate, and if he was there, there could have been a play at the plate. But you are right, it was charged to Gibson, as if he made the play happen.

     

    Plus, there is no guarantee that the Nats would have used the same relievers that the Twins scored on. More for your refute. My point remains.... the relief choices were from Rochester, and a sad state of affairs, and another game seemingly given up on too soon, and now in a penant race that one cannot afford to give any game away for player development.

    I realize that you later emphasized “with two outs” but I certainly don’t think it is fair to “charge” them to the reliever. What about a guy who comes into bases loaded, no outs?Say he induces a first pitch run scoring double play and then gets a strike out. I think any team takes that outcome. Is it really fair to “charge” him with that run?

     

    That’s what the IR/IS stats are for.

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    I was at the game last night. Gibson was not sharp at all. He was hit hard, everything off the bat was a rocket. His pace in the game is also painfully slow and doesn't attack hitters. 

     

    Flat out, we need some of our guys to get healthy. The lineup they had out there last night had 2-3 automatic outs in it and with our starting pitching being what it is, we can't have that. 

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    Or maybe it’s just too early for these guys - remember how we rushed Hicks and Buxton to the majors before they were ready? I would have called up Rooker, he should be healthy now.

    We do know LaMarre isn't good, but he's here. We don't know with those two. That's the point, always choosing the least risk.

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    I realize that you later emphasized “with two outs” but I certainly don’t think it is fair to “charge” them to the reliever. What about a guy who comes into bases loaded, no outs?Say he induces a first pitch run scoring double play and then gets a strike out. I think any team takes that outcome. Is it really fair to “charge” him with that run?

    That’s what the IR/IS stats are for.

     

    Yup. I would look at that different, and say no in my mind. 2 outs is the key. Not asking much, really, of the reliever. Just come in and relieve. Get a single out. Pitch a single clean at bat. Do your job. How about not throwing the ball 4 feet away from the target? I have a whole percentage applied idea that include situations with runners on which base and outs at time of entering game....to reflect on and improve ERA. Also the pitcher getting unearned runs when he let's his own runners in by throwing the ball away and makng his own throwing error on a pick off or just trying to throw out a runner. IR/IS is just a raw number, and it should be incorporated into ERA to better reflect what happened, I think. So many don't consider it, and don't include it, like this time, when they say the run was credited to...... of course it was as the system stands, but there was a huge contributing factor. Anyway..... for another thread. The main point was the choice of relief, mostly, and not trying to be that competitive too early in the game, and using the Rochester staff..... that Gibson did not let the run score, even though he allowed the runner on base was the aside that seems to be of more interest to argue about.

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    Well, the 6th run was charged to Gibson and scored on a passed ball by Garver -- so maybe if the bullpen *and* catching holds, it would have been a 6-5 win. Otherwise, if just the bullpen, a 6-6 tie -- just like in Japan!

    The amount of baseballs that make it to the backstop for this team is starting to get beyond acceptable. Whether passed, WP, or whoever the catcher is.
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