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  • Twins Game Recap (8/25): Pérez Impresses, Twins Beat Detroit for Series Win


    Nash Walker

    The Twins recovered after a poor performance on Friday to take the series from Detroit and finish the homestand with a 3-3 record. The 7-4 win increases their lead in the AL Central to 3 1/2 games, as Cleveland fell to Kansas City 9-8.

    Image courtesy of FanGraphs

    Twins Video

    Box Score

    Pérez: 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 68% strikes (68 of 100 pitches)

    Bullpen: 3 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 2 K

    Home Runs: C.J. Cron (21), J.Schoop (18)

    Multi-Hit Games: None

    Top 3 WPA: Pérez .214, Garver .154, Schoop .101

    Martín Pérez returned to Target Field after a very successful road trip in which he allowed just two runs in 11 innings. The bullpen and bats restricted Pérez to no decisions in both starts.

    The Twins allowed 8-of-9 leadoff batters to reach base in last night’s victory. On Sunday, Pérez surrendered just one. C.J. Cron assisted Pérez to his first win since before the All-Star break with a three-run blast in the fourth inning. Pérez twirled six strong innings, allowing two runs and striking out five. Pérez has walked 3.8 batters-per-nine this year, but gave a free pass to just one hitter on Sunday. His cutter was extremely effective to right-handed batters, which is an important development after the pitch was dominant during the first half of the season, but not so during the middle part of the schedule.

    Left-hander Matthew Boyd started for Detroit and allowed seven runs in six innings. Jonathan Schoop had one of the four Twins’ hits, as he laced a two-run homer down the left field line in the sixth. The Twins lead the league in OPS against left-handed pitching (.885). Catcher Mitch Garver doubled off the wall in the third to improve his torrid numbers against lefties. Boyd walked five and struck Max Kepler with a pitch in the fourth. The Twins figure to see Boyd at least once more, as they have seven more head-to-head matchups with Detroit. They have scored 10 runs off him in two starts.

    Cody Stashak continued to be a reliable low-leverage arm out of the bullpen, pitching two innings of one-hit ball with a strikeout. He was helped out by an outstanding catch in left field by Jake Cave.

    https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1165726211298848768

    Lewis Thorpe entered in the ninth with less luck, surrendering three hits and two runs. Thorpe escaped the jam and finished the job. Stashak and Thorpe saved the arms of Rogers, Dyson and Romo. All of which will receive two days of much-needed rest.

    The Twins will enjoy an off-day tomorrow before facing Chicago for a three-game series against Lucas Giolito and the White Sox.

    Postgame With Baldelli

    https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1165739378594828288

    Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

    Click here for a review of the number of pitches thrown by each member of the bullpen over the past five days.

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    I think there is enough here to believe he is a good fourth OF option.

     

    I don’t know enough behind the math of BABIP and quality of contact.

     

    I have seen that the BABIP on hard contact last year was .448 vs. .158 on soft contact.

     

    I know that Cave has had hard contact 53.8% (2018 league 35.3%) and soft contact 3.8% (league average 18.1%)

     

    I don’t know what it means. Clearly lots more hard contact and lots less soft contact is going to drive a BABIP way up. His high BABIP is explained by the quality of his contact (not luck).

     

    So...

     

    Is quality of contact luck or a skill? If it is a skill how much data is needed to be meaningful?

     

    Who wants to take a chance it is luck and let Cave move to another team this winter?

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    Oakland fans might be saying something similar about THEIR starting left fielder Robbie Grossman.

    I’m guessing you’re joking around, but this doesn’t make Cave a good outfielder.

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    I think there is enough here to believe he is a good fourth OF option.

     

    I don’t know enough behind the math of BABIP and quality of contact.

     

    I have seen that the BABIP on hard contact last year was .448 vs. .158 on soft contact.

     

    I know that Cave has had hard contact 53.8% (2018 league 35.3%) and soft contact 3.8% (league average 18.1%)

     

    I don’t know what it means. Clearly lots more hard contact and lots less soft contact is going to drive a BABIP way up. His high BABIP is explained by the quality of his contact (not luck).

     

    So...

     

    Is quality of contact luck or a skill? If it is a skill how much data is needed to be meaningful?

     

    Who wants to take a chance it is luck and let Cave move to another team this winter?

    It doesn't have to be luck to be unsustainable.

     

    Regardless of what is driving his high babip, he's not Ty Cobb, it's going to regress.

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    It doesn't have to be luck to be unsustainable.

     

    Regardless of what is driving his high babip, he's not Ty Cobb, it's going to regress.

    I don’t doubt that but how far will it regress. He is also early in his career and it is reasonable that he will improve his hitting skill.

     

    I also am not ready to buy that it doesn’t matter what is driving his BABIP. If Cave has the skill of creating higher quality contact than normal his BABIP will be higher. In his case it is not simply a case where his balls in play have simply evaded the fielders due to luck of placement. They are missing fielders because the harder contact gives them less time to get to the ball. Is that hard contact a skill?

     

    I think he is a good fourth OF. I wouldn’t give him away this winter.

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    I don’t doubt that but how far will it regress. He is also early in his career and it is reasonable that he will improve his hitting skill.

     

    I also am not ready to buy that it doesn’t matter what is driving his BABIP. If Cave has the skill of creating higher quality contact than normal his BABIP will be higher. In his case it is not simply a case where his balls in play have simply evaded the fielders due to luck of placement. They are missing fielders because the harder contact gives them less time to get to the ball. Is that hard contact a skill?

     

    I think he is a good fourth OF. I wouldn’t give him away this winter.

    When I said it didn't matter what was driving his babip, i meant as it related to the fact that it will regress.

     

    You're right that skill can contribute to a higher than average babip, but nobody (except Ty Cobb) has enough skill to maintain his current babip.

     

    Regardless of what's driving it, it's going to regress.

    How much of it is skill will determine if it regresses to .330 or .300, but either way it will regress.

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