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  • Twins Game Recap (7/18): Rosario Ignites Late-Inning Comeback


    AJ Condon

    Eddie Rosario redeems himself after yesterday’s error with a go-ahead pinch-hit three-run homer in the seventh and Mitch Carver and C.J. Cron add big insurance runs. Gibson helps Twins pick up their second win against Mike Fiers and Taylor Rogers saves the comeback. The Twins continue to be sloppy and it needs to be fixed.

    Image courtesy of FanGraphs

    Twins Video

    Box Score

    Gibson: 7 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 7 K, 68.9% strikes (73 of 106 pitches)

    Bullpen: 2 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

    Home Runs: Rosario (21), Garver (16), Cron (18)

    Multi-Hit Games: None

    WPA of +0.1: Rogers .160, Sano .210, Rosario .465

    WPA of -0.1: Garver -.108

    Rosario Redeems and Garver, Cron Solidify

    A night after Eddie Rosario dropped what would have been an inning-ending fly ball to keep the game within reach, he blasts the first pitch he sees tonight to give the Twins a 4-3 lead. Rosario was most likely not in the lineup tonight as punishment for yesterday’s mishap, but made his presence felt tonight.

    https://twitter.com/cjzer0/status/1152049149182926853

    That was just the second pinch-hit home run for the Twins this season, and of course Rosario was the culprit of the first one as well. In 12 at-bats as a pinch-hitter, Rosario has three hits for three home runs.

    Mitch Garver and C.J. gave the final punches in tonight’s game by each hitting a solo shot in the eighth for huge insurance runs to give them a three-run lead going into the ninth. The Athletic’s bullpen gave up three hits in tonight’s game, but they were the three biggest hits for the Twins.

    Pitcher’s Rematch

    Just over two weeks ago, Kyle Gibson and Mike Fiers faced up against each other, but unlike tonight, neither pitcher picked up a decision in that 12-inning contest. Tonight Gibson got rewarded for his solid outing, and the Twins picked up just their second win against Fiers in 13 games against him.

    Gibson had another great outing against the Athletics, but this time was actually able to pick up the win. He pitched his deepest into a game and picked up his most strikeouts since June 25th. It was very impressive to see Gibson work around a few errors, not give up any walks, and pick up the win. He struck out three batters with his two-seam, and two batters with each of his changeup and slider.

    Rogers' Save

    Taylor Rogers started warming up immediately following Rosario’s go-ahead home run for a six-out save. Rogers has been the Twins’ best reliever, and continued his great season tonight. He gave up two singles in the eighth, but that was nothing to worry about as he retired the next five batters to complete the save and end the Twins’ longest losing streak of the season.

    Sloppy Play

    The Twins sloppy play has been pretty apparent since the All-Star break, and it continued tonight. Coming into tonight’s game they had six errors in five games and added two more in the first two innings. A couple of base-running errors also ended Twins’ threat in two different innings.

    The base-running errors were the ones that hurt the most tonight. The first one came with a man on third base and one out. Max Kepler ripped a line drive to first base, which Olson made a nice grab on, and doubled up Cave who was halfway to home plate.

    The next one came after a leadoff walk and single, when Arraez thought Cave had been hit by a pitch and was making his way to third only to realize the ball was still in play and proceeded to get thrown out on his way back to second.

    Though the errors didn’t lead to anything tonight, it still is something that you want to clean up because they usually come back to hurt. Arraez and Sano were responsible for the fielding errors tonight with Arraez picking up a two-base error in the first after misfiring a throw to first, and Sano misfielding a hard hit ball that landed 10 feet in front of him.

    Postgame With Baldelli

    https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1152071444949397505

    Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

    Click here for a review of the number of pitches thrown by each member of the bullpen over the past five days.

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    Yes, we need more than Rogers in game situations in the bullpen. That hasn’t changed since May/June. 12 days to the deadline. Space has been cleared. Time to get two bullpen arms and maybe a starter.

     

    Abso-tive-ly concur.

     

     

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    Good to know. But then, how do you get a negative number when you hit a homer?

     

    Because his other 3 plate appearances went K, groundout to begin an inning and GIDP with zero outs.  His HR came after the team was already up 2 runs in the 8th inning.  WPA is very situational. 

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    Because his other 3 plate appearances went K, groundout to begin an inning and GIDP with zero outs.  His HR came after the team was already up 2 runs in the 8th inning.  WPA is very situational. 

     

    Thanks. Not that valuable a stat, then... as "clutch" hitting is generally regarded by baseball statisticians as a myth and an inevitable function of opportunity?

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    Thanks. Not that valuable a stat, then... as "clutch" hitting is generally regarded by baseball statisticians as a myth and an inevitable function of opportunity?

     

    I wouldn't say it isn't valuable, but it's not like an end all stat, and you are right it is more of a "clutch" stat I suppose. If his HR would have came in the 5th and tied the game instead of the 8th when they were already up 2, he most certainly would have had a +WPA for the game.  

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    Looks like the weather is going to play a part in the next couple games. Unless the game moves quick, it might be tough to get before the rain comes at about 9ish or soon after. Saturday could be a complete washout until 7 or 8.

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    Thanks. Not that valuable a stat, then... as "clutch" hitting is generally regarded by baseball statisticians as a myth and an inevitable function of opportunity?

    It's more of a fun stat to see who impacted one specific game the most.

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    One thing about Rogers being used over multiple innings for a save:

     

    The other relievers are rested for that game.

     

    So, Gibson goes seven, Rogers goes two, the rest of bullpen rests.

     

    What we are seeing is a way of creating space for other hurlers to be better once they are used.

     

    I think it's smart and will prove out, especially once 3 batter minimums are enforced in 2020: relievers are going to have to be pitchers again, not specialty guys.

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    One thing about Rogers being used over multiple innings for a save:

     

    The other relievers are rested for that game.

     

    So, Gibson goes seven, Rogers goes two, the rest of bullpen rests.

     

    What we are seeing is a way of creating space for other hurlers to be better once they are used.

     

    I think it's smart and will prove out, especially once 3 batter minimums are enforced in 2020: relievers are going to have to be pitchers again, not specialty guys.

    I don't know whether the idea can be extended to lots of other pitchers or only a few. But I'm definitely in favor of taking advantage of each pitcher's individual strengths. If Rogers is reliably a two-inning pitcher, you can plan around that and use him for maximum benefit. The only problem is that ideal usage occurs irregularly, so that you may have three games in a row that would fit his profile, and then not any for a week.

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    Rogers use is similar to Hader’s this year with about the same number of appearances and innings (particularly since becoming the closer). This isn’t the traditional use of a closer but maybe fewer appearances and warm ups is better on the arm. I don’t think Rogers has warmed up very often without entering the game.

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    Different people can handle different things.

    Some people can run 7 marathons on 7 continents in 7 days.

    The human body can be very resilient. Sometimes it breaks down, we'll see.

    For now, I'm not concerned, and I'm not ready to say his pattern of use isn't sustainable.

    He's not showing any signs of wearing down yet.

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