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The catcher position is incredibly demanding, which is why we commonly see either a gold glove caliber defender with no offense or a relatively great hitting catcher who struggles defensively. It’s hard to do both. Ryan Jeffers has leaned more towards the former so far in his career, as his bat hasn’t played for more than short flashes at a time. With changes to how the game of baseball is played, however, could Jeffers’ carrying tool become obsolete?
Jeffers has flashed some thump in his bat so far throughout his career, though never consistently at the MLB level. He also hasn’t made enough contact or reached base at a high enough clip to be considered an offensive contributor as shown in his .210/.285/.390 line in 591 plate appearances thus far. Instead Jeffers makes his impact with his defense, though not in a traditional sense.
Jeffers has only caught 24% of baserunners trying to steal in his career. Though not all blame can be assigned to the catcher in such a measure, it’s safe to say catching baserunners isn’t Jeffers’ specialty. Instead his defensive reputation comes from stealing strikes on borderline pitches, and we’ve seen plenty of examples of him doing so in his three years.
Jeffers has been in the 60th percentile or better for framing in every year of his career so far. Stealing strikes is his #1 skill, and he does it well. Converting a first-pitch ball into a strike for example can lower an opposing hitters’ OPS from .916 in a 1-0 count to .827. Or from .842 to .382 going from a 1-1 count to 0-2. There’s no doubt that Jeffers' pitch framing has helped Twins pitchers when he’s been on the field.
The issue however is that the robo-umpire idea doesn’t appear to be a question of if, but rather when. No longer will catchers be able to stage pitches to sway umpires, as they’ll be measured objectively. The timeline of when we’ll see the electronic strike zone debut is unclear, but for the current version of Ryan Jeffers, this is very bad news.
It’s possible that Jeffers has more development to make. He has missed his fair share of time with injury. But for the Twins, who lack another catcher even within their top 30 prospects, this should create some worry for the future. We appear to be on the fence regarding whether Jeffers can be “the guy” behind the plate for future Twins teams, but taking away his biggest strength would answer the question for us. The Twins need a long-term backup plan.
There are several routes the Twins can go. Signing free agent Willson Contreras is undoubtedly the most fun scenario. Going from Jeffers to the electric former Cubs backstop who seemingly does it all would no doubt be an upgrade. Contreras however will likely require a massive deal after hitting free agency at 30 following a season in which he posted an incredible 132 wRC+ at the plate. Such a deal wouldn’t be the Twins' style and they have needs elsewhere. The rest of free agency doesn’t inspire much confidence in the long term.
The Twins could also make a concerted effort to address the position in the draft. The bright side of their disappointing season in 2022 is the higher draft pick they hold. They haven’t drafted a first-round catcher since Joe Mauer in 2001 and of course the talent has to be worth the pick. If a catcher isn’t available that’s worthy of a 1st round selection, consider for example that Mitch Garver was drafted in the 9th round because of defensive concerns. They could beat the rush and target bat first catchers now rather than waiting until receiving and framing are no longer considered skills. The Twins love their “market inefficiencies” and they can take advantage of one that won’t be around much longer during the 2023 draft.
Independent of the upcoming strike zone changes, Jeffers had enough question marks. The Twins have been fortunate in recent history with catchers such as Garver breaking through after not carrying a high prospect pedigree. It’s time to shore up the future with a lacking pipeline of catchers. This is the offseason for the Twins to set themselves up for a possible future without Ryan Jeffers
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