Twins First Half Summary: Murphy's Law

Let’s start at the end of last year. The Twins were not officially eliminated from the playoffs until after their 161st game. Hope was high as the offseason began. And that’s why 2016 has been so incredibly disappointing for the fans, and likely even more so for the players and the front office.

If anything can go wrong…

• I believe that the Twins were very surprised when they learned that Torii Hunter had decided to retire. As much as we know that his skills had fallen, he really did have a major influence in the clubhouse. To what degree, there is no way to measure, but Hunter’s influence is unquestionably missed.
  
• The Twins traded Aaron Hicks to the Yankees for John Ryan Murphy. On the surface, the trade made a lot of sense for both teams. The Yankees have an aging outfield that consists of Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran. Hicks was brought in to be the fourth outfielder and play most of the time. The Twins have some outfield depth and needed to address an organizational need behind the plate. In acquiring Murphy, the Twins had a catcher with solid MLB experience as a backup to Brian McCann over the past few years. He is still just 24 and under team control for four more years. However, Murphy struggled mightily in spring training and at the start of the season and was sent to Rochester by early May. He’s hitting better, and he still has a future with the Twins, but the first half did not go well at all.
  
• It was announced that the Twins won the bid on 1B Byung Ho Park for a reasonable $12 million bid. Weeks later, Park arrived in Minneapolis to sign a very reasonable contract of four years and $12 million, with an option. There was a lot of excitement around the signing of the top player in Korea. The man had hit 105 home runs and driven in 270 runs over the previous two seasons, but he also struck out a ton. He showed up to spring training and acclimated himself well to his new teammates. He has shown some of the great power that we all hoped for, but his inability to make consistent contact and declining confidence got him shipped to Rochester last week.
  
• While the decision to offer arbitration to Eduardo Nunez has certainly looked wise in the season’s first half, the other three decisions have not been so beneficial for the Twins. Casey Fien got off to a bad start (7.90 ERA in 14 games) and was placed on waivers and claimed by the Dodgers the first week in May. After a brief stint in the minors, he was called up and has posted a 2.33 ERA in 16 games in LA.
  
• Tommy Milone was placed on waivers at the same time, though he went unclaimed. He went and dominated the International League for a month before being called up recently. He has been bad in two starts since his return and may not be long for the roster… again.
  
• Kevin Jepsen was the final play who was offered arbitration. Like Milone, it was an easy choice to offer it to him. He had come to the Twins in a July 31 trade last year and was tremendous for the team through the final two months. With Glen Perkins unable to pitch, Jepsen was a very reliable closer. Though no one thought he would be that great again, no one could have imagined that he would be completely unable to get anyone out. He was DFA'd over the weekend. Days earlier, it was announced that the primary pitcher the Twins traded for Jepsen, Chih-Wei Hu, was named to the Futures Game roster. Of course, that’s how July deadline trades work out. The Twins got what they wanted for 2015. The Rays got a nice pitching prospect who may be part of their future. It’s the kind of trade that the Twins will hopefully be able to make before July 31.
  
• While Glen Perkins has been hurt the past two second halves, he put in the work in the offseason and got in much better shape. The hope was that he would be able to maintain his shoulder strength throughout the season. Instead, he struggled in two appearances and went on the DL. He had shoulder surgery last week which revealed that the labrum had been separated from his shoulder.
  
• Phil Hughes was elite in 2014. He struggled in 2015. The hope was that he could be something in between in 2016. Instead, he really struggled and got demoted to the bullpen. He got hit by a line drive that fractured his leg. Last week, he had surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome which will likely affect his 2017 season as well.
  
• There was an assumption that Eddie Rosario’s production might drop a bit in 2016 after a strong rookie season. We had seen similar fall-offs in production with guys like Oswaldo Arcia, Danny Santana and Kennys Vargas, but there are exceptions to the rule that plate approach was pretty important in sustaining success. Instead, Rosario made no adjustments and kept swinging at nearly everything and found himself optioned to Rochester by mid-May. He raked in Rochester and has now returned to the Twins. Hopefully we’ll see some improvement.
  
• Eddie Rosario is just one example of a young player taking a step backwards (or not taking a step forward) this year. Miguel Sano had a monster first half-season in the big leagues in 2015. He was all right in the first half of this season, when healthy, but certainly not performing to the level we had hoped. Byron Buxton has been great in the field, but he has really struggled with the bat. In fact, he was sent down to Rochester for about a month, and he again dominated the minor leagues. Jose Berrios finally got an opportunity, but he posted an ERA over 10 in four starts and really struggled with his control. He was sent back to Rochester where he appears to have turned things around again. He should be back in the big leagues soon. Finally, Alex Meyer was terrific through his first three starts in Rochester. In fact, he was called up to the Twins. He was to work long relief, but when Milone was removed from the rotation, he was put into the rotation. He made one start, and the Twins wisely sent him back to Rochester after the game to bring up a reliever for a few days before Ervin Santana took back his rotation spot. Unfortunately, in Meyer’s first bullpen session upon his return to the Red Wings, he felt something in his shoulder. That was the first week in May, and he has not pitched in a game since, nearly two months. These four players are a big part of the plans that Terry Ryan and company had. These elite prospects need to become solid (or better) big leaguers for the organization to regain some status. Fortunately, Max Kepler has played very well the last two or three weeks and fits into the same category now as the four listed above. Similarly, Tyler Duffey struggled early in the season but hopefully has made the adjustments to turn things around.
  
• As much as the young players struggled early, and they did, in my mind that wasn’t the big issue. I expect some struggles from young players. What really hurt, in my mind, were the struggles of some of the veterans early in the year. Brian Dozier has been on fire since the beginning of June, but through the first two months of the season, he was hitting .202/.294/.329 (.624) with just twelve extra-base hits. Similarly, Trevor Plouffe hit just .246/.273/.369 (.642) with nine extra-base hits through May. Kurt Suzuki was hitting .212/.266/.293 (.559) with five extra-base hits through May. Joe Mauer was terrific in April and has struggled since, other than a power streak in late May. Hughes. Nolasco. Milone. Jepsen. Fien. Ervin Santana. Even Kyle Gibson, who was the team’s pitcher of the year last year, struggled early and then missed about six weeks with injury. The veterans that we were hoping to gett quality play from have struggled as much as the young players.
  
• Eduardo Escobar finally went into spring training being handed a starting shortstop job. He earned it. He had tremendous second halves in 2014 and 2015. Unfortunately after a quick start, he struggled mightily and then got hurt and went on the DL. Eduardo Nunez took his spot and he took off and hasn’t slowed down since.
  

I mean, those are just my thoughts from the top of my head. If I spent more time thinking about it, there would certainly be more issues. It was a disastrous first half of the season, and we will see what happens in the second half. There are some reasons to believe they will be better in the second half, and there are plenty of story lines to follow over the final 80 games.

But the Twins first half has been dreadful and can be summarized by quoting Murphy’s Law: If anything could go wrong, it probably already has gone wrong for the Twins in the 2016 season.