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  • Twins Draft Blayne Enlow, Seven More


    Jeremy Nygaard

    Here are all your results from Day 2 of the MLB Draft. The Twins started it with a bang, using up the money they saved on Day 1 by selecting Blayne Enlow, a projectable, high upside prep starting pitcher who would require a large bonus to keep from his college commitment. His background and seven more are below....

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    Round 3 (76, Slot $755,500) - Blayne Enlow, RHP (St. Amant HS, LA)

    6'3" right-handed pitcher out of Louisiana high school. Ranked 33rd on Baseball America's board. Very projectable with a low-to-mid 90s fastball that scouts expect to tick upward in the coming years. Looks like this is a tumbler guy the Twins will use their saved-up slot money to sign. Jeremy had predicted Twins would take Enlow at #35.

    Something else that should be noted, too, is that if Enlow was drafted at #37 and doesn't sign, the Twins lose $1.85 million from their bonus pool as opposed to only $755k if he doesn't sign as the 76th pick.

    (Update: Rhett Bollinger is reporting that Enlow is expected to sign for $2M.)

    Round 4 (106, Slot $507,000) - Charlie Barnes, LHP (Clemson)

    Barnes won't overpower hitters, but is a crafty left-hander with a plus-changeup. Strictly speculation, but Barnes should come in a hair under slot and projects as a back-end starter. On the smaller end (6' 0", 175), Barnes also possesses a curveball and a slider and is smart on the mound, commanding all four pitches well.

    Scout's take: Not just crafty. Up to 95. Mixes pitches and manipulates ball well. High-floor and could move fast.

    Round 5 (136, Slot $378,700) - Andrew Bechtold, 3B (Chipola College)

    A transfer from Maryland, Bechtold has developed a bat that projects for both average and power. He's got the arm to stick at the hot corner as well and also possesses pretty good speed. Bechtold is a third-year college player, but committed to LSU. Though both LEN3 and Doogie report he'll come in over-slot, signability shouldn't be an issue.

    .

    Round 6 (166, Slot $283,300) - Ricardo De La Torre, SS (Puerto Rico Baseball Academy)

    Committed to Auburn, De La Torre had first-round buzz before a disappointing spring drop him down draft boards. Considered a solid defensive shortstop, De La Torre has a questionable hit tool. At 6' 2", 175 lbs, De La Torre could fill out and end up at third base, where his arm would play. More likely to stick at shortstop than Lewis, it shouldn't matter as De La Torre could follow in the last few Puerto Ricans' footsteps and get two seasons in the GCL.

    Scout's take: Athletic, strong, exciting prospect. Skilled enough to play other positions if he grows out of SS, but hope he sticks.

    Round 7 (196, Slot $220,700) - Ryley Widell, LHP (Central Arizona JC)

    Widell had a very good season in the JC ranks after transferring from Washington State. He has a fastball that sits around 90 mph and a pretty good change-up. He'll need to continue to develop a breaking ball and refine his fastball. He's committed to UNC and offers some upside in his 6' 4", 205 lb frame.

    Round 8 (226, Slot $174,400) - Bryan Sammons, LHP (Western Carolina U.)

    A senior who has had success in the Cape Cod League, Sammons throws a variety of pitches though none are anything special. Senior signs help teams stay under their budget and Sammons was one of the better ones available.

    Scout's take: Big-bodied, durable lefty. Easy and loose arm action. Sits 89-91 but has plenty of 92,93. Slider, cutter, curveball. All four pitches can be major-league average. Starter. Definite prospect despite being a senior.

    Round 9 (256, Slot $148,000) - Mark Contreras, OF (UC Riverside)

    Contreras is another senior and hit .366 in his final year in college. Very good athlete.

    Round 10 (286, Slot $137,100) - Calvin Faucher, RHP (UC Irvine)

    A third senior rounds out the top 10 rounds. Faucher is strictly a bullpen arm - with a 90 mph fastball and a nasty slider. If he can be a successful fastball/slider pitcher, there is a certain big league bullpen that could certainly use some help. (No, I'm not saying this year.)

    -----

    That's it for Day 2. The Twins are, as one front office exec says, "all out of money", so it would appear they will play Wednesday relatively straight. Look for more college pitchers, catchers and guys who can hit.

    Expect there to be a a few hard-to-sign guys drafted just in case money frees up as a backup plan.

    Hope you enjoyed Day 2. See you for Day 3 tomorrow.

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    Anyone have a list of best remaining players in the draft?

     

    From MLB.com

     

    Here are the top 10 players -- including eight prep players -- left from the Top 200 Draft prospects list:

    29. Blayne Enlow, RHP, St. Amant (La.) HS
    30. Nick Allen, SS, Parker (Calif.) HS
    39. Tanner Burns, RHP, Decatur (Ala.) HS
    45. Jacob Heatherly, LHP, Cullman (Ala.) HS
    48. Evan Skoug, C, TCU
    52. Alex Scherff, RHP, Colleyville Heritage (Texas) HS
    53. Tristan Beck, RHP, Stanford
    54. Garrett Mitchell, OF, Orange Lutheran (Calif.) HS
    55. Daniel Cabrera, LHP, Parkview Baptist (La.) HS
    56. Jacob Pearson, OF, West Monroe (La.) HS

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    Only issue I see with the Lewis selection (Without the money involved) is it seems shortstop (of he sticks their like they believe he will) is of little need in the system currently. Can never have to many prospects at any given position. Especially up the middle. But doesn't seem it was necessary to spend the 1-1 pick on the position. Let's hope he turns out to be the Twins version of Derek Jeter and there's nothing to worry about.

    If we have two true SS at SS and 2nd thats a plus, if we have 3 true SS at SS 2nd and 3rd thats a plus, heck if we have 4 true SS one with a little extra height over at first that's also a plus.

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    Hate me if you want, but I'd love to see them draft Nick Allen here. Then load up on pitchers.

     

    Makes a ton of sense can never get to many position players especially when you know your gonna be able to sign a few extra picks then normal.

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    I'm sure someone has done the analysis, but it would be interesting to see a chart showing percent chance that any given pick (ie. 3rd pick, 44th pick, 190th pick) accumulates 3 career WAR (or whatever the "right" number is).

     

    What I suspect it would tell you is that you'd rather have the 50th-54th picks (all 5 of them) rather than the 5 guys you'd get at your regular slots over the first five rounds.

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    I'm sure someone has done the analysis, but it would be interesting to see a chart showing percent chance that any given pick (ie. 3rd pick, 44th pick, 190th pick) accumulates 3 career WAR (or whatever the "right" number is).

     

    What I suspect it would tell you is that you'd rather have the 50th-54th picks (all 5 of them) rather than the 5 guys you'd get at your regular slots over the first five rounds.

     

    The problem with this is it doesn't account for signability.  After the first few picks, it may not be selecting the best player so much as selecting the best player that fits into your draft strategy / budget. 

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    My thoughts... 3rd round, I'd probably want Jacob Weatherly, and then take a catcher in the 4th round.

     

     

    There was a bit of a catcher run at the end of Day 1, so it's possible that they could go with whoever they think is the top catcher with 76  and then hope for a high-end HS pitcher at 106.

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    Anyone think the Twins are waiting to nab Blayne Enlow?  I don't know much about him, but he sounds intriguing.  Their savings thus far may be what it takes to entice him even as a later pick into signing

    Edited by FunnyPenguin
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    My thoughts... 3rd round, I'd probably want Jacob Weatherly, and then take a catcher in the 4th round.

     

     

    There was a bit of a catcher run at the end of Day 1, so it's possible that they could go with whoever they think is the top catcher with 76  and then hope for a high-end HS pitcher at 106.

     

    Do we have good information that Enlow is unsignable?

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    Anyone know the odds of a 3rd round or later guy beoming a productive player?

    Here is a great in depth piece on the Draft using data from 1998-2012 , what values to expect based on WAR, how well teams draft, etc.  The average 1:1 in that period was 18.5 WAR for their career (up to this point).  There is a significant drop between early rounds (1st-80th pick overall and middle rounds (80th-100th overall).  BTW Adam Johnson is one of the worst picks in the time period

     

     

    http://www.thebaseball.blog/who-drafts-the-best/

    With a good podcast interview on Effectively Wild

     

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    The problem with this is it doesn't account for signability.  After the first few picks, it may not be selecting the best player so much as selecting the best player that fits into your draft strategy / budget. 

     

    It's hard to play the under slot game without a top 3 pick so i think the #'s would basically give you an accurate indication.  Chances are the #76 pick or whatever we're on has never been used under slot, Twins are in position to increase the odds to probably mid to late 2nd round level.

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    I'm sure someone has done the analysis, but it would be interesting to see a chart showing percent chance that any given pick (ie. 3rd pick, 44th pick, 190th pick) accumulates 3 career WAR (or whatever the "right" number is).

     

    What I suspect it would tell you is that you'd rather have the 50th-54th picks (all 5 of them) rather than the 5 guys you'd get at your regular slots over the first five rounds.

    I posted a link to that yesterday. Check fangraphs, or I will post again. It gets random faster than people think.

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    Some site predicts the Twins will take HS OF Tristan Lulz with the first pick of the 3rd round... 

     

     

    https://twitter.com/jwgravley/status/874624679046262784

     

    Draft Site (that's the name of the site) is a joke, they post a random mock for each sport that goes super deep and they never really update it, even when it says it is. They probably had us going with Faedo before the draft

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    Well the Twins have had 12 hours to find out. Probably easier to get a read when the click isn't ticking.

    I think I prefer Weatherly but the Twins might have saved enough cash to get both.

     

    Who is this "Weatherly" guy everyone keeps mentioning?!  ;-)

     

    (Heatherly I'd be fine with too if he's the one they think they can sign, but it would be awesome if your second sentence came true!)

    Edited by Steve Lein
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    Anyone know the odds of a 3rd round or later guy beoming a productive player?

    Over the span of 1998-2012 Draft, picks from 80-300 are valued at an average of .5 WAR for their career.  Later than that .2 WAR career.  

     

    The expected WAR for career draft picks based on article data of 1998-2012

     

    1:1 is 12.9,

    1:2 is 11.0,

    1:3 is 9.9

    1:4 is 9.1

    1:5 is 8.5

    1:6 is 8.0

    1:7 is 7.5,

    1:8 is 7.2

    1:9 is 6.9

    1:15 is 5.5,

    1:25 is 4.1

    80th is .9

    105th is .8

    210th is .6

    402th is .2

     

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    Over the span of 1998-2012 Draft, picks from 80-300 are valued at an average of .5 WAR for their career.  Later than that .2 WAR career.  

     

    The expected WAR for career draft picks based on article data of 1998-2012

     

    1:1 is 12.9,

    1:2 is 11.0,

    1:3 is 9.9

    1:4 is 9.1

    1:5 is 8.5

    1:6 is 8.0

    1:7 is 7.5,

    1:8 is 7.2

    1:9 is 6.9

    1:15 is 5.5,

    1:25 is 4.1

    80th is .9

    105th is .8

    210th is .6

    402th is .2

     

    I'd be curios to know the break down between pitcher and position player.  I'm guessing position players have a meaningful advantage although it might come down to HOF level players skewing position players more then pitchers along with shorter careers.

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    What do people think of Blayne Enlow, Tanner Burns, Tristan Beck, James Marinan, Alex Scherff, Matt Tabor & Jacob Heatherly? 

     

    Seem to be the top HS P's available. 

    Edited by InfraRen
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    MaineBall
    12:48 Who has the highest ceiling of the remaining players?

     

    Eric A Longenhagen
    12:49 If either Riley Adams or KJ Harrison can catch and tap into their power, they're beasts. Both have huge question marks about those particular skills, which is why they're still on the board.

     

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/eric-longenhagen-prospects-chat-mlb-draft-day-2/

     

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    What do people think of Blayne Enlow, Tanner Burns, Tristan Beck, James Marinan, Alex Scherff, Matt Tabor & Jacob Heatherly? 

     

    Seem to be the top HS P's available. 

     

    All names Twins should like. I want Enlow in the next 15 minutes...

     

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