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  • Twins Daily Draft Preview: Prep Arms


    Jeremy Nygaard

    All spring the Twins have been rumored to be interested in any and all high school pitchers, with the focus, essentially, being on “power arms.”

    The unique thing about this group is they’re also the players most-heavily connected to rumors of high price tags, which may allow them to drop to the teams with the largest draft pools.

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    WHO ARE THEY?

    The headliners of the group, Jason Groome (LHP, New Jersey HS) and Riley Pint (RHP, Kansas HS) are both expected to be long gone by the time the Twins come to the podium. (Though there has been some recent chatter of Groome sliding.)

    The second tier of prep pitchers has a few more names in it: Ian Anderson (RHP, New York HS), Braxton Garrett (LHP, Alabama HS), Matt Manning (RHP, California HS), Kyle Muller (RHP, Texas HS), Joey Wentz (LHP, Kansas HS), and Forrest Whitley (RHP, Texas HS)

    WHY THE TWINS WILL DRAFT ONE OF THEM

    Each of these young hurlers has something you could absolutely fall in love with.

    Ian Anderson is 6’ 4”, 175 pounds and has hit as high as 97 on the radar gun. He also throws an advanced changeup and curveball for where you’d project a cold-weather prep to be at his age. To top it off, Anderson has a body that offers projection.

    Braxton Garrett, according to a veteran scout, is “one of - if not the best - left-handed high school pitcher I’ve ever seen.” Garrett doesn’t throw particularly hard - 91-92 mph - but offers a curveball that is almost unanimously viewed as the best in the prep class. His changeup is a potential plus pitch as well.

    Matt Manning is a big body (6’ 6”, 200 lb) that has a huge fastball. It’s been clocked in the upper-90s, though he sits in the mid-90s. His secondary pitches have taken a back seat to his dominant fastball, but both his curveball and changeup offer projection.

    Kyle Muller can lay claim to the fact that he recorded 36 consecutive outs on strikeouts at one point this spring. He’s not overpowering - throwing in the low-90s - but he’s very deceptive and left-handed hitters will struggle with his fastball. His secondary pitches don’t project as above-average.

    Joey Wentz is a big lefty (6’ 5”) who throws hard (up to 96 mph) and has a potentially plus curveball. He’s got great control and a low-effort, easily-repeatable delivery.

    Forrest Whitley is the guy on this list I could see most likely to be both a) available and :cool: willing to sign at #15. Whitley is all of 6’ 7” and depending on the food intake of the day, tips the scale at around 240 pounds. The big Texan has a full mix of pitches, though. A fastball that has been clocked as high as 97 mph, a slider that projects as plus and a curveball and changeup that still need work, but he’s shown a feel for.

    WHY THE TWINS WON'T DRAFT ANY OF THEM

    In addition to the rumored high asking prices, none of these pitchers come without warts.

    Anderson had a rough spring, dealing with an oblique injury, pneumonia and wet weather that made it hard for him to get on the mound. He’s a Vanderbilt commit, one of the hardest schools to sign kids away from.

    Another Vanderbilt commit, Garrett is also a Scott Boras client which means, as one scout says, “we won’t know what he’ll cost until the draft.”

    The question about Manning has also been his price tag. Recently I was informed that the Twins slot “wasn’t going to get it done.” My personal belief is that the Padres are working to get both Manning and Stanford pitcher Cal Quantrill as a package in some combination at #8, #23 and #24. Manning also plans to play both baseball and basketball at Loyola Marymount.

    Muller lacks the ceiling of the other pitchers on this list, though he’d probably be the most signable. Twins fans would likely be disappointed with a first-round pitcher who Baseball America suggests is a “future No. 3 or No. 4 starter.”

    Wentz is committed to Virginia and it’s going to take big money to sign him away from that commitment.

    Though he did lose a lot of weight this spring, Whitley is going to battle conditioning issues (and that didn’t work well for the Twins and Hudson Boyd). He also broke a finger right before the season started and missed a few weeks. There’s also talk of an email that was sent from Whitley’s dad that seemed to blast professional baseball, though I haven’t been able to substantiate that report.

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    In the most recent mock drafts, Baseball America projects the Indians taking Anderson the pick before the Twins at #14. Keith Law and MLB Pipeline have Anderson going to the Yankees at #18.

    Law and MLB Pipeline both project the Marlins taking Garrett at #7, while the Baseball America crew has him dropping all the way to the Nationals at #29.

    Law has Manning going to the Padres at #8. MLB Pipeline connects him to the Twins at #15, but warns of the high price tag. Baseball America has Manning falling to the Cardinals, who have three picks in the top 34, at #23.

    Law projects the Twins take Muller at #15, while Baseball America (#32 to Dodgers) and MLB Pipeline (not in top 34) have him going later.

    Wentz does not appear on any of the three mock drafts.

    MLB Pipeline connects the Padres to Whitley at #8 (my note: likely under slot), while Law makes the same connection, only at #25 (my note: probably over slot). Baseball America goes in between, slotting Whitley in at #21 to the Blue Jays.

    If every one of these pitchers was available at #15 and willing to sign for slot, I’d order them in this way (with a significant gap between the top half and bottom half):

    Braxton Garrett

    Ian Anderson

    Matt Manning

    Joey Wentz

    Garrett Whitley

    Kyle Muller

    Other draft-related articles:

    Local Profiles

    Zack Burdi

    Zack Collins

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    Nice write up.  Seems like we'll probably draft one of those guys or maybe a college arm like Hudson if he's available.  Of the group, I'd probably prefer Anderson but, really, any of them would be fine.

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    Reading the list, was really ok with anybody but Muller, so yeah-will probably be Muller.  What I'd like to see is the Twins draft the best player regardless of sign-ability at #15.  Then pay the 75% overage on up to 5% overslot if that's what it takes.  Also if true and next year is looking like a stronger draft class with more catching depth it would not be the end of the word to have a say #1 or #2 pick as well as the #16 pick. 

     

    Overall I'd like to see the slot system stay with some tweaks-no more pooling the money.  We're heading quickly back to the old days where agents and big money teams are manipulating the draft.  What happened last year with Daz Cameron was a joke.  

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    Also if true and next year is looking like a stronger draft class with more catching depth it would not be the end of the word to have a say #1 or #2 pick as well as the #16 pick. 

     

    Though I don't disagree the organization could probably come out further ahead if they do this, I don't think anyone feels secure enough in their job to punt on this year's pick.

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    You can't punt a pick. What if 5-10 of the top players for next year get hurt, or just plain are bad? 

     

    In theory, it might work. In practice, I can't find a person on the web that used to work in a FO that has said this is a good idea.

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    You can't punt a pick. What if 5-10 of the top players for next year get hurt, or just plain are bad? 

     

    In theory, it might work. In practice, I can't find a person on the web that used to work in a FO that has said this is a good idea.

    It isn't exactly punting a pick to select the best player and hope they were bluffing about their bonus demands. If, as an example, Matt Manning is saying he won't sign for less than $3.5M, but the Twins pick him anyway at #15 and offer him $2.8M (or maybe go overslot up to $3M), is Manning really going to forego the money and security over $500K? Maybe he won't sign at that number and go to college, but I have to think it is at least 50-50 that he will sign. So is taking a 50-50 risk (or 25-75, or 90-10, or whatever you think the odds might be) "punting" on the pick? Or should the Twins be 100% certain that the player they pick will sign at $2.8M? Personally, I mostly think these HS pitchers will all sign for a lower amount than they say, provided it isn't an egregious discount.

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    It isn't exactly punting a pick to select the best player and hope they were bluffing about their bonus demands. If, as an example, Matt Manning is saying he won't sign for less than $3.5M, but the Twins pick him anyway at #15 and offer him $2.8M (or maybe go overslot up to $3M), is Manning really going to forego the money and security over $500K? Maybe he won't sign at that number and go to college, but I have to think it is at least 50-50 that he will sign. So is taking a 50-50 risk (or 25-75, or 90-10, or whatever you think the odds might be) "punting" on the pick? Or should the Twins be 100% certain that the player they pick will sign at $2.8M? Personally, I mostly think these HS pitchers will all sign for a lower amount than they say, provided it isn't an egregious discount.

    I don't necessarily disagree but this is a draft of suspect quality.  A guy #15 on one list might be #29 on someone else's list.  I think it makes more sense to know what it will cost to get the guy at 15 so you can factor in your pool for the rest of the draft.  If #15 is a tough sign or won't sign, you won't be able to play around with other picks after round 10.  Last year, for example, the Twins expected to save some money on Kyle Cody but he didn't sign so they weren't able to sign one or two HS guys they picked late.  I think the Twins should find a guy who is willing to sign at 15 for something the team is ok with.  

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    It isn't exactly punting a pick to select the best player and hope they were bluffing about their bonus demands. If, as an example, Matt Manning is saying he won't sign for less than $3.5M, but the Twins pick him anyway at #15 and offer him $2.8M (or maybe go overslot up to $3M), is Manning really going to forego the money and security over $500K? Maybe he won't sign at that number and go to college, but I have to think it is at least 50-50 that he will sign. So is taking a 50-50 risk (or 25-75, or 90-10, or whatever you think the odds might be) "punting" on the pick? Or should the Twins be 100% certain that the player they pick will sign at $2.8M? Personally, I mostly think these HS pitchers will all sign for a lower amount than they say, provided it isn't an egregious discount.

     

    then I misunderstood your post. I thought you were pretty much saying to punt it......

     

    It's a hard call, really, in your scenario. Lots of guys choose to go to college, for whatever reasons. Economically and for the good of their arms, pitchers should pretty much take the money. Colleges are notorious for not caring about the health of their players, and 2MM today is worth a lot more than MAYBE 3-5MM in 3 years. But, there are other reasons to go to college vs going to the pros.

     

    I don't know what I'd do if I was a team, and the player I wanted said they'd not sign with my team. Very difficult call.

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    If the Twins are going to go high school pitcher- I think it should be Garrett or Anderson. I would not be happy with anybody else on this list. If they aren't available when the Twins pick I'd go bat- prep or college (unless if Hudson is available). I'm not a fan of taking pitching in the first rounds of weak drafts. Too much risk for limited upside. 

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    Take the best available player (most likely a prep pitcher).

     

    If he doesn't sign then at least you get a pick the following year.

     

    However, you need top of the line pitchers and you need to swing for the fences as much as possible to get them.

     

    Or bundle your future money on one pitcher instead of spreading it over Hughes, Nolasco, and E. Sanatana (unlikely to happen with Ryan in charge).

     

    The Twins have plenty of #3 and #4 pitchers in their farm system.

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    Or bundle your future money on one pitcher instead of spreading it over Hughes, Nolasco, and E. Sanatana (unlikely to happen with Ryan in charge).

     

    The Twins have plenty of #3 and #4 pitchers in their farm system.

    How many 150m pitcher deals have worked out?  

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    Have to go with Ian Anderson here. Solid prospect. Plus, just think of all the great Jethro Tull concerts we can get after games at Target Field. Playing that flute and belting out "Locomotive Breath". Sweet!

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    How many 150m pitcher deals have worked out?  

     

    I don't disagree not doing the 150 mil pitcher which means you need to draft the high potential pitchers to get an ace. 

    Draft the best available player which at 15 this year looks like a prep arm.

    Don't get scared by Boras or any others.

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